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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Sally

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I thought some would enjoy watching this LINK

It has the tidal gauges for the reporting stations around Mobile Bay.  Seems current water levels are between 2 and 4' higher already especially dauphin island. 

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Regarding standard wind height of 30 feet, it’s often the 60 to 150 feet winds that produce all the tree damage and rip off 3 story building roofs. At any rate Sally sneaking through the alley and eyeing Mississippi Alabama

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8 minutes ago, Mowfishin said:

I thought some would enjoy watching this LINK

It has the tidal gauges for the reporting stations around Mobile Bay.  Seems current water levels are between 2 and 4' higher already especially dauphin island. 

Very cool. Overnight it appears many stations recorded meteotsunamis as Sally sloshed water along the Gulf. Just one of many

53B290D1-52F3-4E27-9178-7CB465957F3E.png

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@NavarreDon

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward along the coast
of the Florida panhandle to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended eastward along the coast
of the Florida Panhandle to Navarre.

The Tropical Storm Warning west of Morgan City Louisiana has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida Panhandle
has been discontinued.
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18z models came east. Might be a chance this goes east of Mobile Bay now (would obviously mitigate the surge there). Even Pensacola has to be really on guard. If the storm structure holds they are going to get nailed with that long curved rain band and would be at high risk of excessive rainfall totals.

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[mention=2594]NavarreDon[/mention]
The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward along the coastof the Florida panhandle to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.The Hurricane Warning has been extended eastward along the coastof the Florida Panhandle to Navarre.The Tropical Storm Warning west of Morgan City Louisiana has beendiscontinued.The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida Panhandlehas been discontinued.


Thanks! Weighing my options on a return home from PSJ.


.
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19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep, often that height doesn’t mix down but when it does, look out. Does give an excellent indication that Sally isn’t just a rain ,surge threat

Agreed. Good point 

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3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

100 mph is pretty high for a 987 mb system.

Am a bit surprised they upped the winds, with the 987 mb pressure and lower FL winds compared to the surface

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10 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Very compact core reason for high winds

I wouldn't really call this a compact core, quite the opposite actually. Lots of work still to be done with the eyewall, with only a minimal surface wind max associated with it.

recon_AF305-0819A-SALLY_timeseries.png

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Any storm surge experts here?  Surprises me with a MS/AL landfall that the surge east of there in AL (6-9' to Mobile Bay and only 4-7' from there to the AL/FL border) and even extreme NW FL (only 2-4') isn't greater than to the west of the storm in SE LA and SW MS (7-11').  Maybe that's because of the slow approach, which will have east to west winds for many hours as the storm crawls to the east of those locations with 7-11 surges predicted - maybe also topographical features in play here.  

 

[Image of cumulative wind history]

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4 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Still thinking this takes a run at cat 3

Honestly given that it’s already at 100mph, and forecast to get to 110, that’s not saying all that much anymore. 

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

How is it 100mph when recon isnt finding that?

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

I agree thats a little high. Maybe in gusts, but there's no wind sustained that high.

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While 100 mph is probably a bit high, the highest winds so far were recorded in the NW quadrant so let's see what we get there in the next pass. 

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Rainfall estimates of 15-20 over the coast initially,  but then estimates of 6-10 inches, some pockets over 10, along the eastern slopes in N GA NC and far NW SC in about a 36 hour period. Looking a bit ominous later in the week up there.

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Viosca Knoll buoy (786) had 100mph avg at 15:00, 94mph at 16:00. Equates to 1 minute sustained max of ~ 88mph, in the NW quadrant of the storm, to me then 100mph seems a reasonable figure

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1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Viosca Knoll buoy had 100mph avg at 15:00, 94mph at 16:00. Equates to 1 minute sustained max of ~ 88mph, in the NW quadrant of the storm, to me then 100mph seems a reasonable figure

that was 500 feet up for reference

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Said they found a few 85-90KT SFMR winds that's what they're basing the upgrade on....

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Sally Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020
 
After the rapid spin up of the inner core late this morning, the 
most recent aircraft passes through the center have not found any 
higher flight-level winds, however there have been a few SFMR winds 
of 85-90 kt reported.  Using a blend of the flight-level and SFMR 
winds the initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt for this 
advisory.  The next Air Force and NOAA aircraft have begun to sample 
the storm.  N

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21 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Said they found a few 85-90KT SFMR winds that's what they're basing the upgrade on....

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Sally Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020
 
After the rapid spin up of the inner core late this morning, the 
most recent aircraft passes through the center have not found any 
higher flight-level winds, however there have been a few SFMR winds 
of 85-90 kt reported.  Using a blend of the flight-level and SFMR 
winds the initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt for this 
advisory.  The next Air Force and NOAA aircraft have begun to sample 
the storm.  N

Those are the winds I mentioned earlier. Wasn’t sure if they’d chalk that up to gusts or not. 

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