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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Sally

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1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

It's fascinating to be able to watch a legit' eye-wall form on radar.

Had that recently with Laura as well.

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31 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Historic flooding event coming to parts of coastal Alabama and Mississippi. They really don’t have the sophisticated Levi systems like New Orleans. Watching the RI unfold in front of our eyes. Slow system and looks like it will have decent time to take advantage of the high atmospheric moisture, low sheer, and high water temps. 

Correct. For sure From lucedale to Mobile basically.... Nothing ITO Levi systems... No exaggeration ...ever single little thunderstorm ..... Midtown Mobile is under water. 

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1 minute ago, JasonOH said:

From KMOB. This eyewall is super compact.. Looks like a 5-6 mile diameter.

3338CA58-B618-4340-B35A-23E30C157ABF.png

Possible pinhole eye. Horrible in terms of RI possibilities. Good in terms of overall impact with a very small core. Maybe the eyewall will collapse before landfall like what happened to Rita. 

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9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Even without accounting for the center reformation, the 12z UK turns Sally northeast and actually hits far western Florida.

that’s probably not going to be correct.  The UKMET inside this close a range will sometimes do funky stuff with tropical tracks.  I give it more belief at day 3-4 usually than this close in 

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Possible pinhole eye. Horrible in terms of RI possibilities. Good in terms of overall impact with a very small core. Maybe the eyewall will collapse before landfall like what happened to Rita. 

I’m not sure there is enough time.  If it’s just starting now it can be 36 hours sometimes til you see the weakening ERC cycle.  Also remember the surge will lag pn decrease.  If it were to go to a 3 or a 4 and then collapsed back to a strong 1 or 2 it might still have surge of a 3 when it comes in.  Katrina more or less had 5 surge even though it was a 3 

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HWRF model update puts Sally at 959 hPa central pressure.  That’s a Major Hurricane and 30-hPa drop in the next 18-hours.

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

that’s probably not going to be correct.  The UKMET inside this close a range will sometimes do funky stuff with tropical tracks.  I give it more belief at day 3-4 usually than this close in 

Agreed. The GFS has had a decent handle on this one. (IMO once again out dueling the euro). I'm thinking somewhere around Biloxi.

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Well that escalated quickly. Lol. That explosion on IR satellite was incredible. Could see the gravity waves propagate outwards. Incredible. Curious how much stronger this will get. It's pretty close to land and wonder if slowing movement will cause more upwelling

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13 minutes ago, Seminole said:

12Z HWRF was initialized close to NHC position. Showing Pascagoula direct hit which is a bad scenario for Mobile Bay 

Hope they figured out how to anchor the oil rigs this time.

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Seems like another Gulf Hurricane that the HWRF has nearly nailed in terms of intensity and genesis. Maybe now some people will stop dismissing it(at least for this season) as an inaccurate model that always far overestimates systems intensity. Regardless, Sally has really quite literally “blown up” on satellite very quickly, it may be close to landfall but I don’t see why it won’t continue to strengthen until landfall, has a real shot at major status which would be bad news given how much rain the system dropped previously when it was only a TS. 

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This bout of RI may have paused for a bit, lass center pass shows about the same pressure and still no evidence of strong winds on the S and SW side of the storm. Also no real sign of a eye on sat pics. Thinking cat 2, maybe low end 3 at landfall as the next round of faster intensification resumes later tonight and tomorrow.

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Euro still has Sally slightly offshore at 60 hours, that would be days of wind and surge for coastal LA, MS, AL and FL. 

 

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Center is moving southwest on radar. 

Edit: 2 models showing a SW drift over the next 24hrs, NAM and Euro

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10 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Euro still has Sally slightly offshore at 60 hours, that would be days of wind and surge for coastal LA, MS, AL and FL. 

 

The euro is interesting.  First, it has a wsw jog this evening before turning north.  Second, while it has Sally dropping to 973 mb, it then has steady weakening to 988 mb at landfall.

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Euro may be upwelling water while it sits out there. At any rate I agree RI has paused for now.

Both versions of the ARW show it keeping similar today. Then, more strengthening overnight. Though I'm not a fan of those models for tropics.

There is one last period of lower shear overnight. I'm looking at satellite derived shear and tendency on CIMSS U Wisc.

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14 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Euro still has Sally slightly offshore at 60 hours, that would be days of wind and surge for coastal LA, MS, AL and FL. 

 

Gonna be a tough couple days in Coastal MS/AL/Far Western Coastal FL. This makes the intensity forecast really complicated.

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

The euro is interesting.  First, it has a wsw jog this evening before turning north.  Second, while it has Sally dropping to 973 mb, it then has steady weakening to 988 mb at landfall.

Makes some sense. If it’s still out there at hour 60 it’ll be pretty spent as far as high octane fuel goes. I hope it moves ashore. Nobody wants the ghostly corpse of a cane hanging around. 

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11 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Gonna be a tough couple days in Coastal MS/AL/Far Western Coastal FL. This makes the intensity forecast really complicated.

If it stays offshore Through 60 hours but achieves major Cat status, there will be quite a surge and wind field that will surely devastate vast areas of coastline no?  I can’t imagine many structures withstanding 80 mph winds for say 10 hours Nor pumping 12 feet of surge relentlessly for that duration.  

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