NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2020 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: It's fascinating to be able to watch a legit' eye-wall form on radar. Had that recently with Laura as well. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JasonOH Posted September 14, 2020 From KMOB. This eyewall is super compact.. Looks like a 5-6 mile diameter. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Modfan2 Posted September 14, 2020 Looks like a Pensacola/AL landfall per radar trends Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wxpert55 Posted September 14, 2020 31 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Historic flooding event coming to parts of coastal Alabama and Mississippi. They really don’t have the sophisticated Levi systems like New Orleans. Watching the RI unfold in front of our eyes. Slow system and looks like it will have decent time to take advantage of the high atmospheric moisture, low sheer, and high water temps. Correct. For sure From lucedale to Mobile basically.... Nothing ITO Levi systems... No exaggeration ...ever single little thunderstorm ..... Midtown Mobile is under water. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2020 1 minute ago, JasonOH said: From KMOB. This eyewall is super compact.. Looks like a 5-6 mile diameter. Possible pinhole eye. Horrible in terms of RI possibilities. Good in terms of overall impact with a very small core. Maybe the eyewall will collapse before landfall like what happened to Rita. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnowGoose69 Posted September 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Even without accounting for the center reformation, the 12z UK turns Sally northeast and actually hits far western Florida. that’s probably not going to be correct. The UKMET inside this close a range will sometimes do funky stuff with tropical tracks. I give it more belief at day 3-4 usually than this close in Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Seminole Posted September 14, 2020 12Z HWRF was initialized close to NHC position. Showing Pascagoula direct hit which is a bad scenario for Mobile Bay Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnowGoose69 Posted September 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Possible pinhole eye. Horrible in terms of RI possibilities. Good in terms of overall impact with a very small core. Maybe the eyewall will collapse before landfall like what happened to Rita. I’m not sure there is enough time. If it’s just starting now it can be 36 hours sometimes til you see the weakening ERC cycle. Also remember the surge will lag pn decrease. If it were to go to a 3 or a 4 and then collapsed back to a strong 1 or 2 it might still have surge of a 3 when it comes in. Katrina more or less had 5 surge even though it was a 3 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Floydbuster Posted September 14, 2020 Damn, Sally. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hotair Posted September 14, 2020 HWRF model update puts Sally at 959 hPa central pressure. That’s a Major Hurricane and 30-hPa drop in the next 18-hours. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HKY_WX Posted September 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: that’s probably not going to be correct. The UKMET inside this close a range will sometimes do funky stuff with tropical tracks. I give it more belief at day 3-4 usually than this close in Agreed. The GFS has had a decent handle on this one. (IMO once again out dueling the euro). I'm thinking somewhere around Biloxi. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthHillsWx Posted September 14, 2020 This thing went from crap to scary in 4 hours. Every time I look at the radar it looks more and more ominous 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormChaser4Life Posted September 14, 2020 Well that escalated quickly. Lol. That explosion on IR satellite was incredible. Could see the gravity waves propagate outwards. Incredible. Curious how much stronger this will get. It's pretty close to land and wonder if slowing movement will cause more upwelling 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2020 Unflagged SFMR of 83, 89, and 90kts. Not rain contaminated. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hotair Posted September 14, 2020 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1305558632852066305?s=20 MJVentrice (@MJVentrice) Tweeted: The rapid evolution of Hurricane #Sally https://t.co/y4CpGDwyWp Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Superstorm93 Posted September 14, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Unflagged SFMR of 83, 89, and 90kts. Not rain contaminated. FL winds are pretty low... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted September 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, Seminole said: 12Z HWRF was initialized close to NHC position. Showing Pascagoula direct hit which is a bad scenario for Mobile Bay Hope they figured out how to anchor the oil rigs this time. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2020 Just now, Superstorm93 said: FL winds are pretty low... Indeed. Best FL winds on that set of data were 79 & 80kts, so not sure if that's capturing a gust or what. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hc7 Posted September 14, 2020 Seems like another Gulf Hurricane that the HWRF has nearly nailed in terms of intensity and genesis. Maybe now some people will stop dismissing it(at least for this season) as an inaccurate model that always far overestimates systems intensity. Regardless, Sally has really quite literally “blown up” on satellite very quickly, it may be close to landfall but I don’t see why it won’t continue to strengthen until landfall, has a real shot at major status which would be bad news given how much rain the system dropped previously when it was only a TS. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cheeznado Posted September 14, 2020 This bout of RI may have paused for a bit, lass center pass shows about the same pressure and still no evidence of strong winds on the S and SW side of the storm. Also no real sign of a eye on sat pics. Thinking cat 2, maybe low end 3 at landfall as the next round of faster intensification resumes later tonight and tomorrow. 3 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2020 To the point above. There’s still a fair bit of organization Sally needs to continue the RI we saw the last few hours. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mob1 Posted September 14, 2020 Euro still has Sally slightly offshore at 60 hours, that would be days of wind and surge for coastal LA, MS, AL and FL. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted September 14, 2020 Center is moving southwest on radar. Edit: 2 models showing a SW drift over the next 24hrs, NAM and Euro 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted September 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, mob1 said: Euro still has Sally slightly offshore at 60 hours, that would be days of wind and surge for coastal LA, MS, AL and FL. The euro is interesting. First, it has a wsw jog this evening before turning north. Second, while it has Sally dropping to 973 mb, it then has steady weakening to 988 mb at landfall. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nrgjeff Posted September 14, 2020 Euro may be upwelling water while it sits out there. At any rate I agree RI has paused for now. Both versions of the ARW show it keeping similar today. Then, more strengthening overnight. Though I'm not a fan of those models for tropics. There is one last period of lower shear overnight. I'm looking at satellite derived shear and tendency on CIMSS U Wisc. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HKY_WX Posted September 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, mob1 said: Euro still has Sally slightly offshore at 60 hours, that would be days of wind and surge for coastal LA, MS, AL and FL. Gonna be a tough couple days in Coastal MS/AL/Far Western Coastal FL. This makes the intensity forecast really complicated. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the ghost of leroy Posted September 14, 2020 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: The euro is interesting. First, it has a wsw jog this evening before turning north. Second, while it has Sally dropping to 973 mb, it then has steady weakening to 988 mb at landfall. Makes some sense. If it’s still out there at hour 60 it’ll be pretty spent as far as high octane fuel goes. I hope it moves ashore. Nobody wants the ghostly corpse of a cane hanging around. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cheeznado Posted September 14, 2020 Euro is initialized too weak and too far south. I do not buy it at all. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hotair Posted September 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Gonna be a tough couple days in Coastal MS/AL/Far Western Coastal FL. This makes the intensity forecast really complicated. If it stays offshore Through 60 hours but achieves major Cat status, there will be quite a surge and wind field that will surely devastate vast areas of coastline no? I can’t imagine many structures withstanding 80 mph winds for say 10 hours Nor pumping 12 feet of surge relentlessly for that duration. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted September 14, 2020 Big notch forming on the south side from dry airSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites