Hurricane Sally

[Windspeed]

Is upwelling much of a factor? or is the water too shallow for that?

Sally is expected to slow down significantly near landfall. It could begin upwelling or atleast cooling down SSTs due to current and precip mixing within its own wake via the upper thermocline to cap intensification. But this is just speculation.

[hlcater]

2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Asymetrical appearance......radar attenuation?  . . 

omfg I have PTSD 

[Memphis Weather]

Quote

Hurricane Sally Special Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally recently
measured peak flight-level winds of 88 kt at 700 mb and SFMR winds
of 78 kt north of the center, and an Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft just measured 79 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb.  These
data indicate that Sally has rapidly strengthened into a hurricane
with an intensity of around 80 kt. In addition, data from the KEVX
WSR-88D show an eye forming at around 16,000 ft altitude. This
special advisory has been issued to increase the initial and
forecast intensity. Additional adjustments to the intensity forecast
could be required this afternoon.  Only a slight adjustment was made
to the 12-h track forecast position based on the more northward and 
eastward initial position.

 

[jrips27]

New NHC advisory gets it to 105mph at landfall

[Orangeburgwx]

12:30 Special Advisory

90mph
986mb

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

[jpeters3]

6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Asymetrical appearance......radar attenuation?  . . 

Hehehehe, i was waiting for this comment.

[Windspeed]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  20SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  87.0W AT 14/1630Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N  86.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 28.8N  87.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.2N  88.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.8N  89.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.8N  88.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  40SW  40NW.

 

[Dunkman]

I'm pretty surprised they didn't extend the hurricane warning to the east. Maybe going to happen at 2?

[mappy]

anyone know if Josh is just going to stay put in Bay St. Louis, or move east? 

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

Historic flooding event coming to parts of coastal Alabama and Mississippi. They really don’t have the sophisticated Levi systems like New Orleans. Watching the RI unfold in front of our eyes. Slow system and looks like it will have decent time to take advantage of the high atmospheric moisture, low sheer, and high water temps. 

[Jackstraw]

31 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It sure is fun to be able to watch, in real time, the process we've seen this morning... at first just another convective blowup away from the center, which so far had done nothing to aid the system, but this one caused a sudden reformation of the surface center, which led to an instant leap to hurricane.  It's a fascinating process.

It is.  Like I said I don't think I've ever seen recon in there documenting a center relocation like this.  Here's the last fixes since this started to happen (The dot to the N is roughly the last NOAA fix)  Be interesting to see where it finally stacks up....

 

 

[Dunkman]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

anyone know if Josh is just going to stay put in Bay St. Louis, or move east? 

He posted a couple hours ago that he was heading east. I guess it's easier to correct back west if need be.

[Leo]

Glad to see the path is shifting a bit to the east but considering the growing concern of RI with this last update coupled with the storm slowing, I'm getting a bad feeling about this. Still miffed this system was dismissed just a few days. Rule of thumb, never under estimate a storm in mid September

[geddyweather]

1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

It is.  Like I said I don't think I've ever seen recon in there documenting a center relocation like this.  Here's the last fixes since this started to happen (The dot to the N is roughly the last NOAA fix)  Be interesting to see where it finally stacks up....

 

 

Wow. That is just phenomenal. What a job by recon this afternoon. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Dunkman said:

He posted a couple hours ago that he was heading east. I guess it's easier to correct back west if need be.

thanks!

[tiger_deF]

It really is shocking how cold Sally's cloud tops are, especially in the middle of the day. Looks like something right from the bowels of the WPAC

[nutmegfriar]

Reed Timmer posted that he's in Bay St. Louis, also, but he's getting out because the water is already rising.

[Amped]

Just now, geddyweather said:

Wow. That is just phenomenal. What a job by recon this afternoon. 

After no pressure drop for about the first 14hrs of the blobs existence.   

[jpeters3]

2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

It really is shocking how cold Sally's cloud tops are, especially in the middle of the day. Looks like something right from the bowels of the WPAC

There were consistent radar echo tops > 60,000 ft this morning - not sure I have ever seen this in a TC.

[dan11295]

1 minute ago, nutmegfriar said:

Reed Timmer posted that he's in Bay St. Louis, also, but he's getting out because the water is already rising.

The track going from WNW to N turn is going to force water into the coast with nowhere to go.

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

4 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

The track going from WNW to N turn is going to force water into the coast with nowhere to go.

That and it still has another 36 hours or so to intensify. Scary

[jpeters3]

Just now, JakkelWx said:

Really?

Again, is anyone in this forum **really that surprised** to see a comment like this??

But to answer the question, no **that** (whatever "that" is) is probably not an eye clearing out.

[dan11295]

I suspect the intensification to becomes slower/more steady for now with eye not yet closed per recon.

[LovingGulfLows]

Interesting. Both hurricane models, HMON and HWRF both around 960 at landfall.

[HKY_WX]

If you use a high titled radar shot, you can see a small pin hole eye developing on the sw side of the covection. This lines up with the NHC discussion.

[Wxpert55]

27 minutes ago, mappy said:

anyone know if Josh is just going to stay put in Bay St. Louis, or move east? 

He hasn't tweeted anything yet I don't think... I'm in Mobile ATM... Oh wait yeah he did

 

 

[hawkeye_wx]

Even without accounting for the center reformation, the 12z UK turns Sally northeast and actually hits far western Florida.

[cheese007]

90 mph at the latest advisory is wild. Already knocking on the door of Category 2

[dan11295]

Surge threat for places like Mobile Bay has significant increased with shift to right and jump in winds.

[HKY_WX]

It's fascinating to be able to watch a legit' eye-wall form on radar.