Windspeed Posted September 14, 2020 Is upwelling much of a factor? or is the water too shallow for that?Sally is expected to slow down significantly near landfall. It could begin upwelling or atleast cooling down SSTs due to current and precip mixing within its own wake via the upper thermocline to cap intensification. But this is just speculation. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hlcater Posted September 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Asymetrical appearance......radar attenuation? . . omfg I have PTSD 7 1 6 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Memphis Weather Posted September 14, 2020 Quote Hurricane Sally Special Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally recently measured peak flight-level winds of 88 kt at 700 mb and SFMR winds of 78 kt north of the center, and an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft just measured 79 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb. These data indicate that Sally has rapidly strengthened into a hurricane with an intensity of around 80 kt. In addition, data from the KEVX WSR-88D show an eye forming at around 16,000 ft altitude. This special advisory has been issued to increase the initial and forecast intensity. Additional adjustments to the intensity forecast could be required this afternoon. Only a slight adjustment was made to the 12-h track forecast position based on the more northward and eastward initial position. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jrips27 Posted September 14, 2020 New NHC advisory gets it to 105mph at landfall Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted September 14, 2020 12:30 Special Advisory90mph986mbSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jpeters3 Posted September 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Asymetrical appearance......radar attenuation? . . Hehehehe, i was waiting for this comment. 2 7 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted September 14, 2020 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 20SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 87.0W AT 14/1630Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 86.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 28.8N 87.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.2N 88.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.8N 89.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.8N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dunkman Posted September 14, 2020 I'm pretty surprised they didn't extend the hurricane warning to the east. Maybe going to happen at 2? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted September 14, 2020 anyone know if Josh is just going to stay put in Bay St. Louis, or move east? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted September 14, 2020 Historic flooding event coming to parts of coastal Alabama and Mississippi. They really don’t have the sophisticated Levi systems like New Orleans. Watching the RI unfold in front of our eyes. Slow system and looks like it will have decent time to take advantage of the high atmospheric moisture, low sheer, and high water temps. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jackstraw Posted September 14, 2020 31 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It sure is fun to be able to watch, in real time, the process we've seen this morning... at first just another convective blowup away from the center, which so far had done nothing to aid the system, but this one caused a sudden reformation of the surface center, which led to an instant leap to hurricane. It's a fascinating process. It is. Like I said I don't think I've ever seen recon in there documenting a center relocation like this. Here's the last fixes since this started to happen (The dot to the N is roughly the last NOAA fix) Be interesting to see where it finally stacks up.... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dunkman Posted September 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: anyone know if Josh is just going to stay put in Bay St. Louis, or move east? He posted a couple hours ago that he was heading east. I guess it's easier to correct back west if need be. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Leo Posted September 14, 2020 Glad to see the path is shifting a bit to the east but considering the growing concern of RI with this last update coupled with the storm slowing, I'm getting a bad feeling about this. Still miffed this system was dismissed just a few days. Rule of thumb, never under estimate a storm in mid September 5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
geddyweather Posted September 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Jackstraw said: It is. Like I said I don't think I've ever seen recon in there documenting a center relocation like this. Here's the last fixes since this started to happen (The dot to the N is roughly the last NOAA fix) Be interesting to see where it finally stacks up.... Wow. That is just phenomenal. What a job by recon this afternoon. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted September 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Dunkman said: He posted a couple hours ago that he was heading east. I guess it's easier to correct back west if need be. thanks! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tiger_deF Posted September 14, 2020 It really is shocking how cold Sally's cloud tops are, especially in the middle of the day. Looks like something right from the bowels of the WPAC Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nutmegfriar Posted September 14, 2020 Reed Timmer posted that he's in Bay St. Louis, also, but he's getting out because the water is already rising. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted September 14, 2020 Just now, geddyweather said: Wow. That is just phenomenal. What a job by recon this afternoon. After no pressure drop for about the first 14hrs of the blobs existence. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jpeters3 Posted September 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: It really is shocking how cold Sally's cloud tops are, especially in the middle of the day. Looks like something right from the bowels of the WPAC There were consistent radar echo tops > 60,000 ft this morning - not sure I have ever seen this in a TC. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dan11295 Posted September 14, 2020 1 minute ago, nutmegfriar said: Reed Timmer posted that he's in Bay St. Louis, also, but he's getting out because the water is already rising. The track going from WNW to N turn is going to force water into the coast with nowhere to go. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted September 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, dan11295 said: The track going from WNW to N turn is going to force water into the coast with nowhere to go. That and it still has another 36 hours or so to intensify. Scary Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jpeters3 Posted September 14, 2020 Just now, JakkelWx said: Really? Again, is anyone in this forum **really that surprised** to see a comment like this?? But to answer the question, no **that** (whatever "that" is) is probably not an eye clearing out. 6 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dan11295 Posted September 14, 2020 I suspect the intensification to becomes slower/more steady for now with eye not yet closed per recon. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LovingGulfLows Posted September 14, 2020 Interesting. Both hurricane models, HMON and HWRF both around 960 at landfall. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HKY_WX Posted September 14, 2020 If you use a high titled radar shot, you can see a small pin hole eye developing on the sw side of the covection. This lines up with the NHC discussion. 60c76ca5-b32e-4f4e-a5c3-f3c2ed1f615a.mp4 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wxpert55 Posted September 14, 2020 27 minutes ago, mappy said: anyone know if Josh is just going to stay put in Bay St. Louis, or move east? He hasn't tweeted anything yet I don't think... I'm in Mobile ATM... Oh wait yeah he did Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted September 14, 2020 Even without accounting for the center reformation, the 12z UK turns Sally northeast and actually hits far western Florida. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cheese007 Posted September 14, 2020 90 mph at the latest advisory is wild. Already knocking on the door of Category 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dan11295 Posted September 14, 2020 Surge threat for places like Mobile Bay has significant increased with shift to right and jump in winds. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HKY_WX Posted September 14, 2020 It's fascinating to be able to watch a legit' eye-wall form on radar. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites