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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Sally

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Just now, Hotair said:

showing a 7mb drop and a 20 mph wind increase just over the past hour.  That is insane 

Extrap is probably a bit low, but even considering its a fairly good drop

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Someone said it earlier: never trust a gulf system. Meteorologically, this is awesome to watch with radar in real time. So many times we see these rapid strengthening phases out over the open water.

Now hurricane sally, as expected from recon. 85 mph. 984 mb Wow

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000
WTNT64 KNHC 141602
TCUAT4

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
1100 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED 
TO A HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally 
indicate the system has rapidly strengthened to a hurricane, 
with maximum sustained winds of around 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher 
gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 
inches).  

A Special Advisory will be issued shortly to update the intensity 
forecast for Sally. 


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

 

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Curious to see what the new special advisory intensities end up being... I’d imagine almost certainly 100mph prior to landfall... possibly more.

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It sure is fun to be able to watch, in real time, the process we've seen this morning... at first just another convective blowup away from the center, which so far had done nothing to aid the system, but this one caused a sudden reformation of the surface center, which led to an instant leap to hurricane.  It's a fascinating process.

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And now if a slow moving huricane just sits and dumps water over New Orleans, it'll just be a sad situation to watch. 

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With most of the modeling indicating an intensifying cane as landfall approached BEFORE this mornings happenings, it seems like a good bet that this storm will be strengthening right up until landfall unless it stalls just offshore which brings it's own set of problems.  

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1 minute ago, dan11295 said:

Wind field is still asymmetric. Will need to fully close off eyewall and even that out for continued intensification to occur

I’d say it’s pretty evident we’re watching exactly what you mentioned unfold currently. NW expansion was first step now watch the low level showers/storms moving into the center from the SW those should continue to consolidate and close the core off even more. I think it’s evident rapid strengthening is underway. Did not expect that from this system 

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Just now, Wild Weather Monger said:

N.O. is in much better shape with the apparent track going well east of them.   

While not out of the woods, I think New Orleans will escape the worst of this system. It may be a mobile LF 

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Center sonde. 

 

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 16:15Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number: 19
Storm Name: Sally (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 20 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 16Z on the 14th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 28.7N 87.0W
Location: 121 statute miles (194 km) to the S (174°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -121m (-397 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
987mb (29.15 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 28.6°C (83.5°F) 24.4°C (76°F) 285° (from the WNW) 8 knots (9 mph)
925mb 572m (1,877 ft) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 21.3°C (70°F) 345° (from the NNW) 18 knots (21 mph)
850mb 1,315m (4,314 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) About 16°C (61°F) 335° (from the NNW) 8 knots (9 mph)
700mb 2,997m (9,833 ft) 16.4°C (61.5°F) About 10°C (50°F) 100° (from the E) 9 knots (10 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 16:02Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 28.68N 87.03W
- Time: 16:02:54Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 28.67N 87.03W
- Time: 16:07:25Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 310° (from the NW)
- Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 335° (from the NNW)
- Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 986mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 156 gpm - 6 gpm (512 geo. feet - 20 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 295° (from the WNW)
- Wind Speed: 13 knots (15 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
987mb (Surface) 28.6°C (83.5°F) 24.4°C (76°F)
906mb 24.0°C (75.2°F) 20.7°C (69°F)
850mb 24.0°C (75.2°F) About 16°C (61°F)
810mb 20.6°C (69.1°F) 15.7°C (60°F)
766mb 21.4°C (70.5°F) About 13°C (55°F)
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
987mb (Surface) 285° (from the WNW) 8 knots (9 mph)
983mb 295° (from the WNW) 13 knots (15 mph)
963mb 310° (from the NW) 16 knots (18 mph)
957mb 315° (from the NW) 11 knots (13 mph)
950mb 320° (from the NW) 13 knots (15 mph)
942mb 335° (from the NNW) 9 knots (10 mph)
925mb 345° (from the NNW) 18 knots (21 mph)
891mb 360° (from the N) 23 knots (26 mph)
885mb 360° (from the N) 22 knots (25 mph)
877mb 20° (from the NNE) 13 knots (15 mph)
865mb 360° (from the N) 7 knots (8 mph)
858mb 340° (from the NNW) 10 knots (12 mph)
850mb 335° (from the NNW) 8 knots (9 mph)
841mb 325° (from the NW) 11 knots (13 mph)
829mb 340° (from the NNW) 20 knots (23 mph)
802mb 360° (from the N) 11 knots (13 mph)
792mb 295° (from the WNW) 10 knots (12 mph)
767mb 240° (from the WSW) 3 knots (3 mph)
697mb 100° (from the E) 10 knots (12 mph)

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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

While not out of the woods, I think New Orleans will escape the worst of this system. It may be a mobile LF 

Still concerned about approach angle and surge into NO.

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I expected more gradual improvement over night (last night) and Sally to have been a hurricane by the 10 AM CDT advisory package. Not to go from junk to hunk in 2 hours. lol... But that's probably got a lot to do with the fact dynamics were already great just to Sally's east, it just took a slight enough abate of mid-level shear to let those dyamics grab and pull the low level broad circulation together, tighten, reform rather rapidly. Keep in mind that the immediate shallow layer thermocline is averaging 29-30°C. It's plenty warm to allow for explosive rapid intensification. It just needed the NW flow to back down.

 

Now the questions are, how much deepening can Sally pull off the next 24 hours? How does reformation and a much more vertically stacked TC affect track? How much slow-down / stall occurs prior to landfall and can the core circulation upwell fast enough to halt intensification prior to landfall?

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This thing is pulling a Michael right now wrt to the VHT training and bursting pattern in the face of moderate VWS. The fish hook pattern (on both IR and radar) is downright ominous. The shear vector isn't as favorable as it was with Michael, but it might not make a ton of difference.

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If you took a close look at the models the past few days, they didn't really anticipate strengthening until overnight last night and today. I think we see continued organization up until landfall (Which appears to be getting pushed back more each run due to a trend in slower forward motion Tonight/Tomorrow)

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7 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Pretty surprised it’s bombing like this with only half an eyewall

Asymetrical appearance......radar attenuation?  :ph34r::lol::facepalm:

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