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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Sally

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23 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

This storm is so deep its getting caught in upper level southerly steering flow. Radar and satellite suggests its heading due north towards the coast. Maybe a chance track forecast totally busts and it goes due north and makes landfall tonight in like Alabama or even Pensacola?

It's not moving north at all. Direction is west northwest. It's reforming the center under deepest convection. 

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3 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

SFMR confirms we have Hurricane Sally with winds of at least 80 mph. 

That rain rate is really high though. I don't think that's representative from what I see right now. 

There are some 62-63kt readings though that look compelling. If this isn't a hurricane, it's very close. 

Edit: unflagged 78 and 74kt readings on the next set of data. 88kt FL winds. This is a hurricane. :yikes: 

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Not the first time a storm has undergone a center jump followed by fast intensification. Harvey and Micheal did the same thing.

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FWIW, the 06 HWRF actually modeled a center reformation and vortex alignment east-north-eastward before significant intensification occurred and the core continued on to the WNW-NW. Only that was later this evening. With alignment having occurred in the last few hours, it might throw a wrench in the 18z model outputs. The 12z data was ingested prior to reformation / alignment unfortunately, so that won't help. We'll just have to be patient until late afternoon.af26c1622063164a380438f10486ffef.gif&key=777ec1a61e20949ad7937c9defa48c4ea3fd7b07a0ce6af92e2ee4a9461bd3a9

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That rain rate is really high though. I don't think that's representative from what I see right now. 

There are some 62-63kt readings though that look compelling. If this isn't a hurricane, it's very close. 

Flight level winds 100 mph, peak SFMR 86 mph. It's a cane. 

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Mobile Bay could be in deep doo doo if this eastern Track materializes. That area is extremely susceptible to storm surge.

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That rain rate is really high though. I don't think that's representative from what I see right now. 

There are some 62-63kt readings though that look compelling. If this isn't a hurricane, it's very close. 

Those look good to me.

recon_NOAA3-0719A-SALLY_timeseries.png

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Am I reading this right?  984.2 with the plane that just flew through center?  

154030 2840N 08655W 7038 02981 9842 +187 +087 308008 013 022 001 00
154100 2837N 08655W 7068 02954 9847 +199 +082 258013 017 025 001 00
154130 2835N 08655W 7154 02857 9850 +210 +080 287015 022 030 000 00
154200 2833N 08655W 7077 02958 9898 +165 +109 276019 021 033 000 00
154230 2831N 08655W 6979 03083 9917 +150 +091 273020 021 036 000 00
154300 2829N 08655W 6956 03113 9908 +161 +061 267018 018 035 000 00
154330 2827N 08655W 6956 03118 9906 +167 +056 266019 020 033 000 00
154400 2825N 08655W 6946 03133 9904 +171 +052 257020 020 032 000 00
154430 2823N 08655W 6955 03125 9917 +163 +065 258021 024 031 000 00
154500 2820N 08655W 6942 03146 9930 +154 +067 253025 026 030 000 00

 

Need actual drop data

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And just like that we have a rapidly intensifying hurricane. The gulf coast cannot catch a break. 

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In Laura's Recon flights, we had varying pressure readings as well and I suspect that one of them is not properly calibrated (assuming they're both flying at the same altitude). While Sally is very obviously intensifying, that's just a ridiculous pressure drop in 30 minutes. 

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RE: pressure drop / 30 minutes.

 

Yes I am holding off a bit here before letting my jaw to hit the floor. Let's see if it's verified officially.

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with all the lightning in the core and impressive gravity waves there have got to be some crazy powerful updrafts going on.  I would assume this is a pretty good sign of RI going on, no?

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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yes I am holding off a bit here before let my jaw hit the floor. Let's see if it's verified officially.

Yeah that's what 14 mb's in 3 hours? :wacko:

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