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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Sally

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Another day, another invest. This one close to home. Decent model signal for some development.

A surface trough of low pressure located over the northwestern 
Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms that extend from the northwestern and central Bahamas 
eastward a few hundred miles over the western Atlantic.   This 
system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing the 
Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the eastern 
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  Upper-level winds are expected to 
become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could 
form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week.  Regardless 
of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy 
rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the 
Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

HFMmsos.png
 

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The northern gulf is going to want to watch this one closely. The environment is very favorable in the GOM. It also appears to be taking on some banding signatures this morning.

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12 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The northern gulf is going to want to watch this one closely. The environment is very favorable in the GOM. It also appears to be taking on some banding signatures this morning.

Yea looks good. Also recurring theme of dry air does not appear a problem for this one..

Track over southern Fla is also relatively  benign due to marshland and narrowest point of land...


Definitely one to watch closely....

GOES16-EUS-08-1000x1000.gif

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I've been tracking this for several days, and it is undoubtedly becoming much better organized since yesterday afternoon, and at this point looks like a very legitimate tropical disturbance. Convection becoming concentrated towards the center of it, and impressive fanning outflow. 

We've had an extremely rainy week ahead of this, floods every day practically, which is the sort of weather we see before we get a tropical cyclone, and it primes the ground for really big floods. 

The outer fringe of this tropical disturbance is beginning to move in, and we've had heavy tropical downpours racing in off the ocean throughout the morning, already flooding outside cause the ground is so wet. 

I think this could be quite a surprise event for South Florida. Not impossible that it becomes a tropical storm as it crosses the Gulf Stream either. 

This one actually reminds me a lot of Katrina, this is just how Katrina looked, and same exact area it formed in, and same track. 

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15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea looks good. Also recurring theme of dry air does not appear a problem for this one..

Track over southern Fla is also relatively  benign due to marshland and narrowest point of land...


Definitely one to watch closely....

GOES16-EUS-08-1000x1000.gif

I agree—a track over south Florida in particular would be favorable for development as it’d also give the system more time over the Gulf to develop.

The conditions seem ripe for development. You’d think we’d see the models catch up at some point.

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Convection really is quite impressive, especially considering the time of day, and it's not being sheared at all. Flash tropical storm warning for Southeast Florida tonight?! If not by 5 pm. 

 

COD-GOES-East-subregional-Bahamas.14.20200911.145116-over=map-glm_flash-bars=.gif

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The tropical downpours coming in off the ocean are beginning to take the shape of spiral rainbands on radar. There is a central and persistent burst of deep convection, and satellite motions suggest that's where the center may be. I wonder how fast recon can be scrambled? In any case, it's gonna be moving within range of Miami radar soon, so if this really does develop, we will know even without recon. 

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NHC issued a special tropical weather outlook, hinting at possible genesis before hitting Southeast Florida

Updated:  Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the 
northwestern and central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues 
to shows signs of organization.  In addition, surface observations 
indicate that pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday 
and, along with wind data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure 
could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.
This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing 
the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  The disturbance could become a 
tropical depression while it is near South Florida tonight, but it 
is more likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly 
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and 
early next week.  Regardless of development, this system is expected 
to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, 
South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days, 
and interests there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf 
coast, should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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If this closes off at the surface in the next 12 hours or so will be interesting to see where.  Seems to be some pretty strong consistent mid-level rotation to the E of the SE tip of Andros.  Any closed LL center forming in that area and it could just miss  S FL altogether.  Not saying it will ;)

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This seems like another instance where the models are missing the TC genesis train. Favorable shear. Warm SSTs. Decent mid level moisture. Sufficient time over water. I wonder what the missing ingredient is? Proximity to land? Disruption by Florida? Just seems like this is as good a homebrew candidate as any. 

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Pretty nice wave axis starting to become evident over the past several hours and is certainly a huge step up from yesterday where the flow was dominated by easterlies throughout. Still not closed (winds south are calm) but a significant uptick from where we were 18hrs ago. As others have mentioned, MLC and outflow are both fairly robust for a system with so "little" organization. I somewhat like the odds of development prior to reaching florida in about 12-15hrs. The first intensity models are also pretty bullish (reaching hurricane intensity) on this once it enters the gulf, though I'd like to see when/where this closes off before I consider them accurate.

96f9aab06fde2680a73973bdeacd4811.png?wid

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This looks very similar to Katrina at the exact same spot. It's interesting that Katrina was the most recent hurricane to make landfall on the Florida east coast. Could this be the first one in 15 years?

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This seems like another instance where the models are missing the TC genesis train. Favorable shear. Warm SSTs. Decent mid level moisture. Sufficient time over water. I wonder what the missing ingredient is? Proximity to land? Disruption by Florida? Just seems like this is as good a homebrew candidate as any. 
Yes a swing and miss by the operationals again. If this closes off an LLC by tonight prior to moving over S. Florida, this is going to have a big head start on intensification as it approaches N. Gulf Coast. S. Florida won't really do much to deter continued organization and the TC should begin intensification fairly soon after re-emerging over the EGOM. The upper environment is superb for a hurricane landfall. This is one time where it looks like negligible shear should verify. There is a bit of lower moisture around the 700 hPa level hanging over the central GOM, but not sure that would be enough to prevent the TC from strengthening without mid level flow to advect into a hypothetical mid level vortex. I think this is going to be a hurricane landfall.
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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This seems like another instance where the models are missing the TC genesis train. Favorable shear. Warm SSTs. Decent mid level moisture. Sufficient time over water. I wonder what the missing ingredient is? Proximity to land? Disruption by Florida? Just seems like this is as good a homebrew candidate as any. 

They still haven't found the Ouija Board script hidden in the code of the last model updates.

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2 minutes ago, brentrich said:

Remind me of Katrina - same path so are we going to see CAT 5 in the making? 

Lol I was just making bets elsewhere on who/when Katrina was gonna get mentioned first. You made me lose.

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12Z HWRF has it up just south of Mobile at either strong TS or weak cat 1 but then weakens it as it looks like westerly shear will become a problem as per the latest GFS.

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12Z HWRF has it up just south of Mobile at either strong TS or weak cat 1 but then weakens it as it looks like westerly shear will become a problem as per the latest GFS.

I'm not so sure. That's a strong upper anticyclone. Positioning is key but that is a hefty upper zonal outflow jet. Place a stronger TC in juxtaposition to the upper 200 hPa flow and you've got a winner winner chicken dinner for a landfalling hurricane. If 10-15kt shear begins to impede it might not be until right at landfall or too late to matter much.7ac1db4cca03f13bae54074a780f11b8.jpg&key=b214aa2abacedd123d585f90609f7cde87d88bee9055b3d2f7680866361abb29da611f0a7e61bba2ccaafaf99f7fa928.jpg&key=154149b318609db66ee9d936279041c9abc57677b40dd6c736a1628bcf201595

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24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro finally on board, but keeps 96L fairly weak. 

Edit: maybe 50-55kt peak from what I see so far verbatim.

0tuorLw.png

That's a major given euros weak bias lately lol. 

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