MJO812 Posted September 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Him? Never Maybe he is jealous that he didn't get hit with Sandy. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the ghost of leroy Posted September 17, 2020 44 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Thought this was the thread for Teddy...lol Looks like a sheared storm in the middle of nowhere. When was this supposed to blossom into a high end cat 4 again? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maestrobjwa Posted September 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Looks like a sheared storm in the middle of nowhere. When was this supposed to blossom into a high end cat 4 again? Man, I don't even claim to be an expert of tropical and know that this season, this kind of post might not age well...lol 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted September 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Looks like a sheared storm in the middle of nowhere. When was this supposed to blossom into a high end cat 4 again? Not sure what happened. It's definitely the biggest convective blob of the season. IDK why it can't form an eye. No obvious shear or dry air. We'll have to postpone the high end 4 until tomorrow. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jojo762 Posted September 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, Amped said: Not sure what happened. It's definitely the biggest convective blob of the season. IDK why it can't form an eye. No obvious shear or dry air. We'll have to postpone the high end 4 until tomorrow. FWIW, the symmetry of the CDO and intense convection has improved drastically from earlier this evening.. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted September 17, 2020 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: FWIW, the symmetry of the CDO and intense convection has improved drastically from earlier this evening.. There's clearly another convective blast incoming and the last one still hasn't died. IR is going to run out of colors. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the ghost of leroy Posted September 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, jojo762 said: FWIW, the symmetry of the CDO and intense convection has improved drastically from earlier this evening.. The blob is symmetrical and nicer looking than earlier but the center or circulation is off near the eastern edge of it. Hopefully shear continues to abate. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2020 39 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Looks like a sheared storm in the middle of nowhere. When was this supposed to blossom into a high end cat 4 again? When it's near a land mass. 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the ghost of leroy Posted September 17, 2020 Just now, SnoSki14 said: When it's near a land mass. Bermuda. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OhioWX Posted September 17, 2020 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: FWIW, the symmetry of the CDO and intense convection has improved drastically from earlier this evening.. Teddy's not pleased about the downgrade. Watch it become a major by morning. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bdgwx Posted September 17, 2020 5 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Ok, but an out-to-sea in the North Atlantic solution "makes sense" as well. Making sense doesn't mean it's right. I will say that given the relatively tight spread (given the circumstances here) of the EPS members I'm certainly not going to blow off the possibility of a Sandy-style left hook. In fact, given that a few members of the CMC and UKMET ensembles also show the tug back westward I'd actually give this possibility some well earned weight. We'll see happens. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OhioWX Posted September 17, 2020 Huge improvement from a few hours ago. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TriPol Posted September 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Ok, but an out-to-sea in the North Atlantic solution "makes sense" as well. Making sense doesn't mean it's right. I will say that given the relatively tight spread (given the circumstances here) of the EPS members I'm certainly not going to blow off the possibility of a Sandy-style left hook. In fact, given that a few members of the CMC and UKMET ensembles also show the tug back westward I'd actually give this possibility some well earned weight. We'll see happens. I remember the computer models had Sandy hitting Boston and Maine before they found a solution in Maryland/NJ. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2020 57 minutes ago, TriPol said: I remember the computer models had Sandy hitting Boston and Maine before they found a solution in Maryland/NJ. It helped that Sandy was in the Caribbean to begin with rather than in the central Atlantic. If the Euro solution does develop then it'll probably impact Canada a la Juan. The chance of it getting even as far west as Maine are very low (5-10%). 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, OhioWX said: Huge improvement from a few hours ago. Giant blob is yielding to a little hook with a pinhole dot. The blob is putting up a fight but clearly it's getting bent. This is a fun battle to watch on IR. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the ghost of leroy Posted September 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Giant blob is yielding to a little hook with a pinhole dot. The blob is putting up a fight but clearly it's getting bent. This is a fun battle to watch on IR. Love it when you get all technical 2 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted September 17, 2020 Just now, the ghost of leroy said: Love it when you get all technical Never seen this kind of eye formation evolution.. Looks like the blobs hot tower was just ripped from it's surface cell. Time for the hook to get it's ground game on. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the ghost of leroy Posted September 17, 2020 26 minutes ago, Amped said: Never seen this kind of eye formation evolution.. Looks like the blobs hot tower was just ripped from it's surface cell. Time for the hook to get it's ground game on. I’ve seen wpac typhoons get their shit together like this 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tiger_deF Posted September 17, 2020 Oh my Raw T numbers of 7.2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted September 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Oh my Raw T numbers of 7.2 Exactly what I was hoping to see. Consistency is overrated. 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tiger_deF Posted September 17, 2020 Raw T is now up to 7.5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CheeselandSkies Posted September 17, 2020 I notice NHC shows it losing longitude at the 120HR point as it approaches 40N. Do they have a reason for discounting the model solutions showing it getting captured and yanked west other than "I don't even wanna go there"? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Morris Posted September 17, 2020 Teddy looks the best yet on the very last infrared frame. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Morris Posted September 17, 2020 The satellite look degraded over the past hour. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BYG Jacob Posted September 17, 2020 Just now, Morris said: The satellite look degraded over the past hour. The eye is clearing out Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JakkelWx Posted September 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, Morris said: The satellite look degraded over the past hour. No. It's not degraded. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hc7 Posted September 17, 2020 Man some of the posts in here just from the last 12 hours are already aging like milk . Some people have been way too quick to write systems off this season. Teddy has had at least major written all over him since last night regardless of a minor sluggish tempo, a CDG wrapped nearly all around since last night is almost always indicative of a system that goes for major status. Plus it never really lost a fairly impressive IR presentation. Consistency is overrated, Teddy was clearly just taking a little break before making his big push today, recon goes in later this afternoon and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they find a Major(actually decent shot they find a cat 4 by the time they fly in there). A strengthening one at that too. Nothing to stop Teddy once it fully closes off that eye and starts to really turn it up. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tiger_deF Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Morris said: The satellite look degraded over the past hour. Convection is warming a little due to the time of day, but the appearance is improving rapidly and the eye is almost clear. Sally was a tropical storm when she had her deepest convection, and when she was on the cusp of a cat 3 it was actually a fair bit warmer Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
