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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Teddy

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Just now, JasonOH said:

2130z (~1 hour ago) microwave pass. Eyewall isn’t even symmetrical as of that pass. This definitely has a chance at making a run for cat 5 if that hot tower can swing all the way around and strengthen the south side.

2C7B276E-65CE-4BA5-9682-E582C45F3676.png

Radar attenuation?? :axe:

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4 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

I was about to make fun of all the people who keep saying this will make a run for cat 5, but ADT is now solidly at 6.6 (corresponding to 130 kt) with Raw T at 7.0.  Doesn't really have that far to go to pull a Lorenzo...

Haha I didn't think it was possible until I saw that microwave image.

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3 hours ago, eyewall said:

If the Euro is right, it would become quite a system during ET transition much like some memorable events in the early 90's.

Are you referring to the "Perfect Storm?"

I know I will get weenie hit for this but this would be fun a month later and we could pull down some artic air during that transition.

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In all seriousness, it looks like 2 more days of steady (if not decreasing by day 2) shear and steady SSTs in the 28-29 C range.  So there is plenty of time.

 

2020al20_diagplot_202009171800.png

 

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2 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

credit to @MJO812.  you boys like to give him the weenie but bottom line is we're watching a Maine threat--an outside Maine threat--and he was on it before anyone else.

Edit: it has been explained to me by management that the phrase "give him the weenie" is unacceptable regardless of context

Broken clock is right twice a day.

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Haha I didn't think it was possible until I saw that microwave image.

Tonight into tomorrow morning is it. Once it ERC’s it’ll go full crazy truck tire and then we are rooting for an Isabel situation. 

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1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Tonight into tomorrow morning is it. Once it ERC’s it’ll go full crazy truck tire and then we are rooting for an Isabel situation. 

I had quite a chuckle at "full crazy truck tire" ;)

Next NOAA mission about to penetrate the core.

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7 minutes ago, Pluffmud said:

Question?? Does the strength of the hurricane have any track implications?

Probably not when you're talking about the difference between cat 4 and 5, but certainly when you're talking about the difference between a Ts/weak disorganized hurricane and a major hurricane.

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

Probably not when you're talking about the difference between cat 4 and 5, but certainly when you're talking about the difference between a Ts/weak disorganized hurricane and a major hurricane.

Thank you!

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54 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Broken clock is right twice a day.

A broken digital clock just doesn't turn on, or shows all 8s or something

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update on the circles. They are preplanned for research  obs. Remember that NOAA HH is research first while Air Force is there for the obs.

 

 

 

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This is going to be one of the most prolific swell producers for the East coast in a long time. Lots of captured fetch as this heads on a course towards the NW. Captured fetch can create some of the highest seas observed on the planet. And that’s all aimed at the east coast. There will be major washovers and beach erosion regardless of the offshore track. Long period swells are extremely energetic and can cause lots of wave run up. 

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Don't know if anyone saw this post. Teddy is going to break through a Tutt much like Paulette did.  Not sure if this will have much of an effect on the intensity, it would probably rip apart a weak TS.

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Looks like recon found 114kt SFMR (~130mph) in the NW eyewall this pass.

130kt FL (~150mph) as well.

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There has been a strong outer band which may be intermittently interrupting eyewall convergence. MW imagery showed a similar structure yesterday prior to intensification to Category 4 and the same feature we were speculating on last night. Outer consolidated banding just hasn't been able to become dominate enough to starve off Teddy's dominate eyewall. A more recent MW pass does seem to show more organization within portions of that outer band, but Teddy's eyewall remains fairly well organized right now. Again, ERC processes are quite chaotic and these don't always stick to rules. Teddy's overall satellite appearance has actually improved the past few hours.

Side note, GOES 16 has been experiencing ongoing imagery and communication issues since last night. Perhaps some geomagnetic interference.

20200918_1009_f17_91h_20L.TEDDY.115kts.947mb_21_2N_55_1W.065pc.thumb.jpg.2f8ac82dae89dd582c7bf88ec58eaed4.jpg

GOES16_1km_vis_202009181215.thumb.png.6b563b9c979edd9574d798e20f5683ea.png

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Magnetic poles of Earth flipping?

lol... No just NOAA data issues. Solar geomagnetic interference was merely my own speculation as it does occur from time to time. Though in this case it could just be server, network and communications systems problems. There has yet to be any official statement of what's causing the data problems. #2020things
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lol... No just NOAA data issues. Solar geomagnetic interference was merely my own speculation as it does occur from time to time. Though in this case it could just be server, network and communications systems problems. There has yet to be any official statement of what's causing the data problems. #2020things

Aliens

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ERC definitely underway now. Clear outer maxima is intensifying. Core pressure appears to have come up. Satellite imagery is showing a ragged eye now despite good convection and overall presentation.

recon_AF306-0220A-TEDDY_timeseries.png

recon_AF306-0220A-TEDDY_zoom.png

GOES16_1km_ir_202009181715_17.75_26.25_-63.00_-49.00_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

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I don't think you can call a hurricane season 'active' without an ERC

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39 minutes ago, Amped said:

I don't think you can call a hurricane season 'active' without an ERC

I remember someone trying to say Isaias was going through an erc while a 50kt tropical storm...

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Teddy just keeps chugging away. At this point I am starting I think the ERC failed. Granted the eye may have decreased in diameter but it must be pulling in the outer banding. ERCs fascinate the hell out of me, especially when they do not complete.

3aae681faa744946fb1abe9811e4b4b5.gif&key=61d33b0a952e332d14a7d46ba5eb44fe4f5d99e3fdbb6fe900b88877e5e7664a

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