• Member Statistics

    16,053
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Santana 1888
    Newest Member
    Santana 1888
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Hurricane Teddy

Recommended Posts

31 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

948.4

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Oh bother.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eye is looking better on sat now. The IR is showing the cirrus clouds are being wrapped around the eye instead of clouding it over. Water vapor also showing the eye warming which is a sign of continued intensification. Wouldn't be shocked to see 120 kts or so by this evening

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recon #3 has been doing back and forth passes between the eyewall and eye, must be a wild ride. Consistent flight level winds at or just above 125 kt with SFMR pushing 110 kt and look to be gradually getting stronger with each passrecon_NOAA2-WC20A-TEDDY_timeseries.thumb.png.c7ff64b02949d9b7aa1ebf029fbb848f.png. Big temperature spike in the eye too, pretty cool.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The eye is still looking better defined each frame and T numbers are still going up.  Might be closing in on CAT4.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Close call for downeast Maine on the Euro...

sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

If the Euro is right, it would become quite a system during ET transition much like some memorable events in the early 90's.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, eyewall said:

If the Euro is right, it would become quite a system during ET transition much like some memorable events in the early 90's.

Possible hurricane threat in Texas and Maine on the same day... so 2020 

  • Like 8
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Possible hurricane threat in Texas and Maine on the same day... so 2020 

Hahah we shall see. Today's threat in Raleigh with the rain seems more typical than a 2020 event. We will bust low on the total.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

credit to @MJO812.  you boys like to give him the weenie but bottom line is we're watching a Maine threat--an outside Maine threat--and he was on it before anyone else.

Edit: it has been explained to me by management that the phrase "give him the weenie" is unacceptable regardless of context

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Cat 4 before ERC? Or do we need to cycle first? DA5B8506-4A3B-4F9A-9879-FEA5BF5776D0.thumb.jpeg.bbbfc67b86c21dbd36e7f878b49aa3db.jpeg 

 

I'm going to say before. That looks like a stable enough eyewall for some additional strengthening before a new outer eye band would take over. Might get some filling afterwards, some weakening, then perhaps another period of intensification upon completion of ERC if successful. ERCs do occasionally fail. But Teddy has a smaller eye, relatively speaking, that likely wouldn't be able to remain stable. So completion of an ERC should be inevitable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

credit to @MJO812.  you boys like to give him the weenie but bottom line is we're watching a Maine threat--an outside Maine threat--and he was on it before anyone else.

Edit: it has been explained to me by management that the phrase "give him the weenie" is unacceptable regardless of context

This is some dumb and dumber shit. Yes there is a chance. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

This is some dumb and dumber shit.

enclosed is actual footage of Teddy avoiding Maine

 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After sputtering a bit early this morning, Teddy is humming right now. Definitely looking like a contender to continue the streak of category 5 hurricanes in the basin if it can stay away from an ERC. No indications of that cycle beginning at the moment. Recon entering now.

97419856.gif?0.4034360704499399

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

After sputtering a bit early this morning, Teddy is humming right now. Definitely looking like a contender to continue the streak of category 5 hurricanes in the basin if it can stay away from an ERC. No indications of that cycle beginning at the moment. Recon entering now.

97419856.gif?0.4034360704499399

I was about to make fun of all the people who keep saying this will make a run for cat 5, but ADT is now solidly at 6.6 (corresponding to 130 kt) with Raw T at 7.0.  Doesn't really have that far to go to pull a Lorenzo...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2130z (~1 hour ago) microwave pass. Eyewall isn’t even symmetrical as of that pass. This definitely has a chance at making a run for cat 5 if that hot tower can swing all the way around and strengthen the south side. 
 

edit: NOAA recon is heading in right now. Going to be a crazy night for them.

2C7B276E-65CE-4BA5-9682-E582C45F3676.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.