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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Teddy

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I think we'll have our second major hurricane by the 11 AM AST advisory package. ADT has shot up. Visible presentation right now is classic of strengthening Category 3.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 952.3mb/104.6kt
Final T# /Adj T# /Raw T#
5.6 /6.2 /6.5
aba994872b219c950c6f0db89be0c936.gif

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...TEDDY BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...

 


11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 17
Location: 19.3°N 53.0°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

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Such strong connective bursts are firing off close to the small(essentially pinhole) eye that they’re actually partially obscuring the eye, but make no mistake that eye is in perfectly good condition atm. The presentation on visible is extremely impressive right now, as is the raw T numbers this beast is pushing already. 
 

Teddy isn’t messing around, seriously would not be surprised to see NHC go with 110-115kt for the 11am advisory and there  be a special advisory around 1pm reading 125kt, this thing is currently/is preparing to really explode. Good thing they have multiple planes flying this afternoon, should make for some interesting data. It’s going to blow past the original and extremely conservative forecasted max intensity.

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11 AM AST discussion... Forecasting a Category 4.


000
WTNT45 KNHC 171502 CCA
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  21...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

Corrected to add Key Messages 

Since the previous advisory, Teddy's satellite appearance has 
steadily improved. There is now a ragged warming eye surrounded by a 
ring of convection with cloud tops colder than -60 degrees C. Very 
recently the objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS 
have been rapidly increasing. And although a blend of the 1130 and 
1200 UTC Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, respectively, 
averaged out to an intensity of about 95 kt, the improved satellite 
presentation since that time suggests that the hurricane should have 
winds of at least 105 kt, which is the initial intensity for this 
advisory, which could even be a little conservative based on the 
latest UW-CIMMS ADT and SATCON values of 120 and 111 kt, 
respectively. There will be NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft inside Teddy later today, which should provide much 
more detail on the structure and intensity of Teddy.

The only negative factor for intensification during the next 24 h is 
about 10 to 15 kt of vertical wind shear. However, Teddy has been 
able to begin the latest burst of intensification despite that 
shear. Therefore additional strengthening is anticipated through 
this evening, and Teddy is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane 
by tonight. The overall environment does not change significantly 
for the next couple of days, so other than some fluctuations 
intensity such as due to potential eyewall replacement cycles, no 
change in strength is indicated during that time. As Teddy continues 
moving northwest over the weekend, it is likely to begin to 
encounter some of the cooler waters upwelled by Hurricane Paulette 
last week. This could cause the cyclone to slowly weaken. By late 
this weekend, increasing vertical wind shear should also contribute 
to weakening. Due to the fast increase in intensity this morning, 
the latest NHC intensity is a bit higher than all of the guidance 
for the first 48 h, but the overall intensity trends are closely 
mirrored by the various multi-model consensus. Beyond 48 h, the NHC 
forecast closely follows the LGEM guidance. 

Teddy continues to move northwestward at 10 kt. The track
forecast and reasoning both remain straightforward and unchanged for
the next 72 h. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent
agreement that a deep-layer ridge situated over the central Atlantic
will force Teddy on a northwestward track toward the western
Atlantic.  There is a little less divergence among the models on
days 4 and 5 then on previous cycles, and these differences are 
due to timing differences in where and how fast the hurricane
begins to recurve ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and
frontal system moving off the coast of the eastern United States in
about 3 days.  The new NHC track forecast is little changed from 
the previous one, and is in the middle of the tightly clustered 
track guidance. On the forecast track, Teddy will make its closest 
approach to Bermuda on Monday.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this 
weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or 
Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near 
the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, 
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing. 

2. Swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the 
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the 
southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend.  
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 19.3N  53.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 20.4N  54.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 21.8N  55.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 23.5N  57.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 25.5N  58.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  20/0000Z 27.3N  60.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 28.7N  62.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 32.4N  63.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 38.9N  62.3W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto



Quick Links and Additional Resources

 

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Kind of surprised the 11am advisory only forecasts it to peak at barely cat 4..it’s already a solid 3 and even the NHC admits it should essentially have free reign to continue intensifying for the next 36+ hours under fairly ideal conditions, with the only potential obstacle being 10-15kt shear after that (which honestly will probably have absolutely zero negative effect on Teddy by then given it will probably be even bigger and stronger). The only thing that’s going to POTENTIALLY stand in it’s way is running into upwelling issues from the wake of Paulette and even then, who knows just how much it’s effected and if it’s effected, at least until it gets further north and encounters cooler water that can’t sustain higher intensities. 
 

The biggest thing I’m wondering is given the fact Teddy is currently much stronger and is going to be much stronger than most models forecasted, how is that going to impact its track and which will be closest to verifying? It’s making me worry that it’s less likely to verify those seemingly most likely tracks taking it OTS or just by NS. And given how poor many of the Global’s have been this season with both track and intensity this far out, I’m seriously worrying a NE landfall(Or at least a pass close enough to do damage, given Teddy will likely have far reaching impact) might not be as improbable as we think. Can’t say there’s been many times I’ve had a legitimate worry of a strong hurricane impacting me here on LI, even if it’s still improbable At this point.

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1 minute ago, Morris said:

Strongest winds in the SW eyewall. Not too hot there.

152030 1904N 05328W 7515 02220 9644 +209 +157 272081 086 084 003 00

But the raw t numbers were over 7!

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We'll have another pass. The strongest overshooting convection is rotating around the N-NW semicircle. Teddy seems to have a slow forward motion right now in interaction with the weak upper trough to its west. Therefore, forward right front quadrant may not necessarily have the strongest winds. I'll be interested in what recon finds on a pass through the NW region of the eyewall.

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With the ramp up of organization I don’t see a serious barrier to becoming a high end 4 or even 5. Unless there is already a double wind maxima and this things eye becomes huge, which would obviously increase the time it would take to strengthen and have less time to maximize a generally favorable environment for a high end storm. Here’s the ACE producer so many here complained we were lacking. Going to be a fun storm to gawk at

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1 minute ago, Morris said:

we have a cat 4.

Not quite yet. Dropsondes don’t measure sustained winds. This is close but I they may go 110 kts instead of 115 because the SFMR readings are a little low

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38 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Not quite yet. Dropsondes don’t measure sustained winds. This is close but I they may go 110 kts instead of 115 because the SFMR readings are a little low

Though, it doesn't look like that surface wind was related to a gust/mesovotex.  The consistent readings of 130 kt aloft as well suggest to me that 115 kt might be a reasonable intensity.

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

Though, it doesn't look like that surface wind was related to a gust/mesovotex.  The consistent readings of 130 kt aloft as well suggest to me that 115 kt might be a reasonable intensity.

What do you think about its appearance on various IR channels? Looks great on vis but I switch to anything else and then go “oh that’s why it’s a cat 3”. The east side is really kinda grungy still.  

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4 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

What do you think about its appearance on various IR channels? Looks great on vis but I switch to anything else and then go “oh that’s why it’s a cat 3”. The east side is really kinda grungy still.  

Yeah, I honestly think it could go either way.  There is clearly some shear affecting the CDO (making it asymmetric). 

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7 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I notice NHC shows it losing longitude at the 120HR point as it approaches 40N. Do they have a reason for discounting the model solutions showing it getting captured and yanked west other than "I don't even wanna go there"?

Because it is an extremely rare and unusual solution that does show up on the models from time to time but rarely actually comes to fruition.

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