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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Teddy

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I love when there is a hurricane forecast to track within 500 miles of NE or NYC...always leads to some of the best comedy in this sub.

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53 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I love when there is a hurricane forecast to track within 500 miles of NE or NYC...always leads to some of the best comedy in this sub.

Whats forecasted?

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1 minute ago, Morris said:

The P-3 aircraft plan to relocate to St. Croix for follow-on missions into Teddy on September 16. 

This will be interesting to track with the cutoff low possibly  coming into play.

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Teddy is looking great on IR. I think the next 24 hours maybe the best RI event of the season.

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Probably was a CAT1 at 11pm.  I'd just go straight to cat2 at 5am.   It will probably be a Cat 4 by the end of today. 

xgip7Ga.gif

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Given Teddy is still fairly far out, my worries are a bit tempered but the Relatively good agreement between models as far as general track goes is worrisome given how rare that’s been this season. The intensity forecast is also quite worrying given the usual conservative nature of the NHC, combined with how good Teddy already looks, this system might have the highest ceiling thus far this season. The Maine/Boston solutions make me worry even as a NYer, since if it could possibly make a landfall that far NE then You can’t really rule out something closer to NY this far out and I know even a close pass of a strong storm would be a nightmare, even Isias  was a shitshow for utilities and infrastructure here. Will be watching this one more closely than usual. 

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2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

4 run trend of the GFS. I've never seen anything like it

 

gfs_z500_mslp_eus_fh156_trend.gif

wow scary  trend

Eps is also trending west

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Looking at the models, it appears Sunday/Monday is the pivot day for Teddy. Seems that around that time, the models have it basically stalling between Bermuda and the East Coast then wobbling North and then East. 

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Interesting. Webb is suggesting the ridge is being undermodeled and will be enhanced by radiative forcing. The position of the mid-to-upper cutoff trough to the SW may capture and drive Teddy in between it and said ridge. A possible rare New England landfall from the SE? Still early but something to watch.

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Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

Have the tropical threads in the New England/NY/Mid-Atlantic forums exploded in a giant weenie-gasm yet? I'm scared to look.

We are all pretty skeptical haha but we are definitely watching this now

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1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Have the tropical threads in the New England/NY/Mid-Atlantic forums exploded in a giant weenie-gasm yet? I'm scared to look.

No and they shouldn't  right now

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3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

You are correct. Teddy bears watching though, still.

We see what you did there.

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