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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Teddy

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12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Another fish? As opposed to the previous two of seven that haven't made landfall, those being Omar and Rene? lol.

 

*hint* Paulette just made landfall and those count. Just messin' with ya. emoji6.png

Did they officially declare landfall with Paulette?

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Did they officially declare landfall with Paulette?

This is about as official as it gets without them actually stating "landfall" in the advisory. Unsure why they did not: 

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located over northeastern Bermuda or near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 64.7 West.

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14 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

This is about as official as it gets without them actually stating "landfall" in the advisory. Unsure why they did not: 

 

Yeah I would have expected a special statement declaring landfall at X spot and time. 

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Knowing Stacy Stewart, he's been saving this one for a while:

Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can't bear to make that forecast at this time.
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Yeah I would have expected a special statement declaring landfall at X spot and time. 

Perhaps they're just super busy and weren't caffeinated enough.
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Looks like icon is back barely east of the 0z run so I'd say the fat lady is singing on ole teddy. Should be a big beautiful hurricane to track but no threat to the US.

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2 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

This has been upgraded to a record-breaking tropical storm, named Teddy.

 

000
WTNT45 KNHC 140859
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Earlier ASCAT data indciated peak winds of 33 kt in the northwestern
quadrant of the depression. Since then, convection has increased and
so have the various satellite intensity estimates. The initial
intensity is increased to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data, and
satellite estimates of T3.5/35 kt from TAFB and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS
SATCON. This makes Tropical Storm Teddy the earliest 19th named
storm, besting the unnamed tropical storm on October 4, 2005.

The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. A deep-layer subtropical
ridge positioned over the central Atlantic should keep Teddy moving
west-northwestward for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the
ridge is expected to shift northward and eastward, and the
strengthening cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward around the
western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track guidance is
general agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new
official forecast track is similar to the previous one and lies down
the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the consensus model
tracks.

Teddy will have several days to strengthen over very warm ocean
temperatures and within a light vertical wind shear regime. The
only hindrance to intensification will be intermittent intrusions
of dry mid-level air that will briefly disrupt the inner-core
convective structure. The NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged
and brings Teddy major hurricane strength by the middle of the week.
Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that
Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can't bear to make
that forecast at this time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 13.4N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 13.8N 42.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 14.3N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.0N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 16.9N 49.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 18.3N 50.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 21.0N 53.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 23.9N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that 
Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can't bear to make 
that forecast at this time.

Nice pun by Stewart.

Looking forward to a further update that says Teddy is looking bully tonight on satellite.

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21 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

This would be Teddy unless that other invest makes it to TS faster, in which case Vicky. After that comes Wilfred, and on to the Greek alphabet. 

Sally was 20 days earlier than Stan (2005), the former earliest 18th storm on record. 

In 2005, after the season ended, an un-named storm was inserted between Stan and Tammy in the list, namely the "Azores Subtropical Storm." That was born Oct 4 and Tammy on Oct 5. So Teddy (whichever wave becomes himself) will have to be compared to the Azores STS for record timing, and Vicky to Tammy, Wilfred to Vince (formed Oct 8, 2005), then Alpha if we get that far to Wilma (reached TS status Oct 17, 2005), which could set up the confusing situation that this year's Alpha will be not the earliest 22nd named storm but the earliest Greek letter storm (if it were to form between the dates of Wilma, now bumped to 22nd, and Alpha (23rd named storm) in 2005 which formed Oct 22nd). An Alpha forming Oct 18 to Oct 21 would create that dichotomy. This year's Beta will need to form ahead of 2005 Alpha before Oct 22nd to become earliest 23rd named storm.

The other benchmarks for formation are ... this year's Gamma will need to be ahead of Oct 27 2005 Beta for 24th named storm, this year's Delta will be compared with Nov 14 2005 Gamma for 25th named storm, this year's Epsilon with Nov 22 2005 Delta for 26th named storm, this year's Zeta with Nov 29 2005 Epsilon for 27th named storm, and this year's Epsilon with Dec 30 2005 Zeta for 28th. If we get to Eta this year (28th named),  we will tie 2005 for total named storms. The Greek alphabet then goes Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda ... and some more but I think that has to be about the limit. Otherwise it might be famous Accuweather forecasters for Tropical Storm Abrams, Hurricane (of course) Bastardi and so on and so forth. But there are 13 more Greek letters after lambda, I think Hurricane Omicron would be worth moving up to get it in there. (Oh my God, it's Omicron) ... Hurricane Omega -- you don't want that hitting your town. There could be a Mu and a Nu on the go at the same time -- ultra confusing. 

Whether the media or other parties pick up on this or not remains to be seen (I would expect the NWS to issue corrective reports if the date comparisons fail to take the 2005 change into account). 

My guess is that we will reach the Greek alphabet stage but we might not go six letters in as they did in 2005, with all the very late activity in mid Nov and even Dec 2005 adding four more then. 

More Greek trivia, only Beta and Epsilon (2 and 5) were hurricanes in 2005, so there is still room for the first Hurricane(s) Alpha, Gamma,  Delta, Zeta and all the rest.

Okay you do realize that Alpha wasn't named until October 22nd 2005 right? At this current pace we will be into the Greek alphabet before the end of September. Two more storms to go and that's it.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Okay you do realize that Alpha wasn't named until October 22nd 2005 right? At this current pace we will be into the Greek alphabet before the end of September. Two more storms to go and that's it.

1 left-Winifred.  Vicky was named this AM

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

1 left-Winifred.  Vicky was named this AM

Happening so fast that I cannot even keep up lol

The GFS really slows down development in the MDR as September comes to a close thanks to lots of Westerly shear but I'm sure we'll get at least two more named storms before things quiet down. The GEFS has a strong signal for development again near 30W towards the end of the month.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Happening so fast that I cannot even keep up lol

The GFS really slows down development in the MDR as September comes to a close thanks to lots of Westerly shear but I'm sure we'll get at least two more named storms before things quiet down. The GEFS has a strong signal for development again near 30W towards the end of the month.

Can also get home brew type stuff near the coast and in the Carribean late season.   I'd bet we get 2 or 3 named storms just from that.

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Can also get home brew type stuff near the coast and in the Carribean late season.   I'd bet we get 2 or 3 named storms just from that.

Speaking of home brews, the GFS has another system developing off the East coast. Could get another short lived named hybrid.

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Yes I did realize that Alpha was named Oct 22, 2005, in fact it says that in my post. ... My points were (a) the post-season naming of the Azores STS in 2005 jogs the comparative name - date paradigm so that Alpha 2020 will be comparable to Wilma 2005 as the 22nd named storm. Wilfred will be comparable to Vince as the 21st named storm. These points are already recognized in the evolving wikipedia list of earliest storm development as Teddy was shown vs Azores while Vicky was shown vs Tammy 2005. and (b) I don't see a lot of candidates on model output past what we have now so perhaps Wilfred will take his time appearing then Alpha 2020 could be well into October. I am pretty certain we'll see Alpha, Beta and Gamma in 2020, not so sure about Delta, Epsilon and Zeta because 2005 was able to keep producing well into November and that may not necessarily be the case this year. The tipoff may be that while we're on a faster pace, the average intensity is lower. This is sort of a mini-me version of 2005 at the present time. It could still gain in the overall intensity department but so far it's all about numbers and not so much about ACE values being out of the ordinary. Worth noting that 2020 is now tied with 2nd place 1933 for total number of nameable storms (some will say named storms but then they didn't name them in 1933).

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3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Looks like Teddy is starting to get it going now. NHC expects a hurricane tomorrow, which means we'll have 3 in the basin simultaneously. 

This is going to be our first long track beast

i thought Paulette would do it, but dry air just keeps cutting the party off before it gets going. People won’t be complaining about ACE next week

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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This is going to be our first long track beast

i thought Paulette would do it, but dry air just keeps cutting the party off before it gets going. People won’t be complaining about ACE next week

If it’s not ACE it’ll be something else :lol: 

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4 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Track keeps moving west, Bermuda better watch out for another, and more powerful hit.

Yep. Bermuda needs to be on guard for this one, again. 

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Teddy is going to be a prolific wave producer for the entire East coast. Before calling this guy a fish storm remember rip currents kill. 
Teddy will also produce very long period swells by East coast standards. Swells with periods over 14 seconds are extremely energetic and can produce beach erosion and wash overs.  

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24 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Dude really? Because I didn't notice that (sarcastic). Come on man.

Thought  you had a brain fart this morning 

Carry on

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Teddy is going to be a prolific wave producer for the entire East coast. Before calling this guy a fish storm remember rip currents kill. 
Teddy will also produce very long period swells by East coast standards. Swells with periods over 14 seconds are extremely energetic and can produce beach erosion and wash overs.  

post/username

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47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thought  you had a brain fart this morning 

Carry on

Nah definitely from 12z today

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