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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Teddy

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There's no ERC in progress. Just a massive spiral band.
20200918_2021_f18.x.91h_1deg.20LTEDDY.110kts-952mb-226N-566W.075pc-1.jpg.81ead0fe93baf11ed191175f25bb93ea.jpg
There was a concentric outer band last evening through today. It did not evolve into an outer eyewall. Teddy has a real shot at hammering down some intensification if the upper environment will allow it.

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There was a concentric outer band last evening through today. It did not evolve into an outer eyewall. Teddy has a real shot at hammering down some intensification if the upper environment will allow it.

Ten hours later the IR cloud pattern has evolved into one that is classic of a degrading inner eye. SSMI missed but there has to be a mature ERC process underway.1c035ef750629c589ccc2746ff5c6af8.gif&key=824b2cae4429b6e8442dcf85e6548815071242fe30cf89df12dc4724b607482a

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43 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Ahh here we go. AMSR2 got a shallow pass @ 05:30z. Yeah, that's pretty suggestive of a larger eye taking over.

816396fb88e1fde337a7a1f7929367f0.jpg

The larger eye will actually aid in increasing seas and swell production. The larger area of maximum winds increases fetch. A memorable swell event is heading for the east coast  

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1 hour ago, Scorpion said:

Just another run of the mill 120 kt peak CV recurver. Already degrading, probably will be down to Cat 2 tomorrow.

Yeah, good thing Nova Scotia and Newfoundland are completely uninhabited. 

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4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The larger eye will actually aid in increasing seas and swell production. The larger area of maximum winds increases fetch. A memorable swell event is heading for the east coast  

When do you think the big stuff makes it to the shores of OC, md and how big do you think the onshore breakers will be?

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On 9/17/2020 at 3:46 PM, the ghost of leroy said:

Tonight into tomorrow morning is it. Once it ERC’s it’ll go full crazy truck tire and then we are rooting for an Isabel situation. 

Here comes your full on crazy truck tire...

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

It's on now... Plenty of good atmosphere left for another Cat 4 run.
 

I have to disagree a little here. If you look at the COD sat, the low clouds in the northern eye are still zipping along.  This indicates there's still a large pressure gradient between the two eyes It may take another 12-18 hrs to get rid of that.

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I have to disagree a little here. If you look at the COD sat, the low clouds in the northern eye are still zipping along.  This indicates there's still a large pressure gradient between the two eyes It may take another 12-18 hrs to get rid of that.
We shall see, sir.

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7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
12 minutes ago, Amped said:
I have to disagree a little here. If you look at the COD sat, the low clouds in the northern eye are still zipping along.  This indicates there's still a large pressure gradient between the two eyes It may take another 12-18 hrs to get rid of that.

We shall see, sir.

Possibly the eye is south of where it looks like and that is just a big dryslot in the northern eyewall.

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Possibly the eye is south of where it looks like and that is just a big dryslot in the northern eyewall.
It will take time but divergence should actually increase over the next 24 hrs and strong convection should be supported. A large eye should be able to pull off some intensification, especially during contraction.

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Pardon my ignorance, but a scrape with Maine is likely out of the picture it appears right? I know the Canada provinces are looking at trouble potentially, but Maine is seemingly safe?

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@Amped .. you might have this call; I forgot about Paulette's wake. Granted if Teddy could track west of it, the core will have ample enough heat content to reintensify, but, yeah... Paulette's wake. *shrug*... Probably a bad call on me part....abd8f1a1e1a2f0928b836be068df3c90.gif&key=7f080817648a614f6eeced1e732056f31235e9666fd5eb577fea18df5a0338f0

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19 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

@Amped .. you might have this call; I forgot about Paulette's wake. Granted if Teddy could track west of it, the core will have ample enough heat content to reintensify, but, yeah... Paulette's wake. *shrug*... Probably a bad call on me part....abd8f1a1e1a2f0928b836be068df3c90.gif&key=7f080817648a614f6eeced1e732056f31235e9666fd5eb577fea18df5a0338f0

It is running into the wake now.  There's also some NW shear it looks like.

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4 hours ago, canderson said:

Pardon my ignorance, but a scrape with Maine is likely out of the picture it appears right? I know the Canada provinces are looking at trouble potentially, but Maine is seemingly safe?

Yeah. The east ticks have taken downeast Maine out of the running for a close center pass. Still could be breezy and wet for extreme east Maine on Tuesday though. 

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58 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. The east ticks have taken downeast Maine out of the running for a close center pass. Still could be breezy and wet for extreme east Maine on Tuesday though. 

Thank you. 

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NHC Disco/Update on Teddy this Morning..

000
WTNT45 KNHC 200850
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

The convective structure of Teddy has degraded substantially since 
the last advisory, with no sign of an eye in conventional satellite 
imagery. The most recent available microwave imagery from last night 
suggested that Teddy still had a very well defined low to mid-level 
inner-core, but this has not translated to the higher levels more 
apparent at night. Intensity estimates have decreased, so the 
initial intensity has been lowered slightly to 100 kt for this 
advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the hurricane later this morning and should 
provide more information about its structure and strength.

Teddy's evolution for the next few days appears to be a tale of 3 
troughs. Upper-level westerly flow associated with the first 
upper-level trough, affecting the storm now, is the most likely 
reason why the hurricane's structure has degraded and has taken on a 
slightly sheared appearance. Teddy will begin to encounter the 2nd 
trough, a deep frontal system approaching from the west, later today 
and that should cause the hurricane to turn north. This interaction 
should steer the center of Teddy east of Bermuda, but tropical storm 
impacts from either the large hurricane, the frontal system, or both 
are still likely Sunday evening through Monday night. 

All indications are that Teddy will then continue generally 
northward and merge with the frontal system, nearing Nova Scotia as 
an extratropical cyclone early Wednesday. Teddy's maximum winds will 
likely decrease sharply after it becomes post-tropical, as shown by 
all the intensity guidance, but its gale and storm-force wind radii 
will likely increase at the same time. The cyclone should turn 
northeastward as the 3rd trough, another mid-latitude system, 
approaches from the west. Teddy could be absorbed by that feature in 
as soon as 120 h, though this is not explicitly shown in the 
forecast at this time. The spread in the track and intensity 
guidance is quite low and confidence in both aspects of the forecast 
is high. There is a little more uncertainty in the wind radii 
evolution, but it is clear that Teddy will produce strong winds over 
a wide area of the northwest Atlantic during the next couple of 
days.

The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddy
continues to increase. See the Key Message below regarding swells
caused by the hurricane.
1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late 
Sunday or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the
island beginning this evening and could continue into Monday 
evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.

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Teddy not getting any action so will ask here
How large will the offshore and onshore waves be from Teddy for MD beaches and what is time frame?
thanks


Coastal flooding will occur due to long period E and SE swells into the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts through Wednesday due to Teddy and higher astronomical high tides. Wave heights are being reported as high as 13.8 ft at bouys east of the NC coast already. Moderate coastal flooding is also already occurring at Hatteras. The will spread up the Eastern Seaboard through the evening and persist for several days.

You can follow TAFB and click the shared links for more.

11b18c2ec2b3d3056eba607e1e2c428b.jpg

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2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

 


Coastal flooding will occur due to long period E and SE swells into the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts through Wednesday due to Teddy and higher astronomical high tides. Wave heights are being reported as high as 13.8 ft at bouys east of the NC coast already. Moderate coastal flooding is also already occurring at Hatteras. The will spread up the Eastern Seaboard through the evening and persist for several days.

You can follow TAFB and click the shared links for more.

 

 

 

11b18c2ec2b3d3056eba607e1e2c428b.jpg

 

 

Major over wash occurring on Long Island already. Jones beach flooded time the board walk this morning, with the biggest waves and highest tides tomorrow there could be significant erosion and damage. Here’s a shot of my truck while I surfed this morning before the tide came in.


 

AA43FED4-B46A-4C7C-A8D9-0BB2D6B9B059.jpeg

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3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

 


Coastal flooding will occur due to long period E and SE swells into the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts through Wednesday due to Teddy and higher astronomical high tides. Wave heights are being reported as high as 13.8 ft at bouys east of the NC coast already. Moderate coastal flooding is also already occurring at Hatteras. The will spread up the Eastern Seaboard through the evening and persist for several days.

You can follow TAFB and click the shared links for more.

 

 

 

11b18c2ec2b3d3056eba607e1e2c428b.jpg

 

 

Thank you 

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