• Member Statistics

    16,105
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    corvairbob
    Newest Member
    corvairbob
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Hurricane Teddy

Recommended Posts

New invest from the wave coming off Africa. Track and intensity uncertain. 

A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

8UBlA0p.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS is trending toward the Euro, showing a significant slowing over the last couple runs and a turn to the nw.

Qith paulette and rene meandering in the middle of the Atlantic that makes perfect sense.  If the ridge doesnt rebuild it cant come west.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think if this takes its time and develops further west (almost near the Antilles) to avoid that first weakness, it’d have a chance to go much further west, but as it stands, this is looking more like a quick kick. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Normally  i would say its  gone but the  overall set  up seems  like we will see west shifts to come. Probably  not all the way to the  coast, but maybe this time tomorrow  it will be  showing quite a  bit  more west.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18Z icon seems to agree with me so far. Well SW though not one  i post  much about.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The stronger the system is initially, the more it will lift. The trough axis has trended deeper and stronger on the GFS the past 4/5 runs as well, which increases the likelihood the system moves poleward as it gets closer to the Caribbean. Still have days to go until we have a well developed LLC and the models decipher the upper level situation to a better degree. But as of now, most signs indicate a pretty fish storm to track or a potential Bermuda threat.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The op Euro really doesn't even develop this system now.

There are so many little waves on the models now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jackstraw said:

Yes and with the possible demise of Rene one of the exits may be closing

I've also heard it opined (in the Rene thread) that the "demise" of Rene might BE one of the exits...weak, stalled Rene creating one where as a Hurricane Rene getting yanked up and out of there would have allowed the ridge to build back in.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, madwx said:

this is TD 20 now.  forecast to get to 80 kts by days 4 and 5.

 

1 hour ago, madwx said:

this is TD 20 now.  forecast to get to 80 kts by days 4 and 5.

Early guidance is certainly fish looking. Re-curving between 50 and 55 west

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TD20 still looks quite unorganized and at quite a southwest position. Will the unorganization keep it moving west? It looks like it will need to start heading northwest pretty soon if it's gonna miss the Lesser Antilles. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Struggling right now, but this looks like it could make a run at major status. 
 

Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Convective banding features are generally limited to the southern 
semicircle of the circulation with the center exposed just to the 
north.  A recent ASCAT pass indicated that the strongest winds--up 
to 30 kt--were primarily located in the southerly and southwesterly 
monsoonal flow trailing the depression, although some stronger 
winds are beginning to develop just west of the center.  Light-to- 
moderate northerly shear is currently affecting the depression, but 
this shear is expected to decrease during the next 24-48 hours.  In 
addition, global model fields indicate that the cyclone should 
become increasingly separated from the ITCZ/monsoon trough.  Steady 
strengthening is anticipated for much of the forecast period, and 
the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA aid and the 
IVCN intensity consensus.  This new forecast is a little higher 
than the previous prediction, especially on days 3 through 5.  
There are two main points that suggest this forecast could 
potentially go even higher in later forecast cycles:  1. the HWRF 
model shows more significant strengthening at the latter part of 
the period, bringing the system to major hurricane strength, and 2. 
the SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance indicates that there is a 
50-50 chance that the system will strengthen by at least 65 kt over 
the next 3 days, which is 9-10 times higher than the climatological 
mean.

The depression is moving west-northwestward (290/9 kt) to the south 
of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central 
subtropical Atlantic.  This feature should continue to drive the 
cyclone westward or west-northwestward for the next 2-3 days.  
After that time, the mid-level high is expected to shift northward 
and elongate, and the potentially intensifying hurricane is likely 
to acquire more poleward motion, moving northwestward and a little 
slower on days 3-5.  Most of the track models are clustered close 
together, except for the HWRF which has a trajectory farther to the 
south and west.  The new NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit 
westward compared to the previous prediction, close to the 
GFS-ECMWF consensus but not as far to the left as the latest TVCA 
and HCCA solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 12.3N  36.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 12.8N  38.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 13.3N  40.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 13.7N  43.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 14.4N  45.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  16/0000Z 15.3N  46.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 16.3N  48.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 19.0N  51.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 22.0N  53.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This would be Teddy unless that other invest makes it to TS faster, in which case Vicky. After that comes Wilfred, and on to the Greek alphabet. 

Sally was 20 days earlier than Stan (2005), the former earliest 18th storm on record. 

In 2005, after the season ended, an un-named storm was inserted between Stan and Tammy in the list, namely the "Azores Subtropical Storm." That was born Oct 4 and Tammy on Oct 5. So Teddy (whichever wave becomes himself) will have to be compared to the Azores STS for record timing, and Vicky to Tammy, Wilfred to Vince (formed Oct 8, 2005), then Alpha if we get that far to Wilma (reached TS status Oct 17, 2005), which could set up the confusing situation that this year's Alpha will be not the earliest 22nd named storm but the earliest Greek letter storm (if it were to form between the dates of Wilma, now bumped to 22nd, and Alpha (23rd named storm) in 2005 which formed Oct 22nd). An Alpha forming Oct 18 to Oct 21 would create that dichotomy. This year's Beta will need to form ahead of 2005 Alpha before Oct 22nd to become earliest 23rd named storm.

The other benchmarks for formation are ... this year's Gamma will need to be ahead of Oct 27 2005 Beta for 24th named storm, this year's Delta will be compared with Nov 14 2005 Gamma for 25th named storm, this year's Epsilon with Nov 22 2005 Delta for 26th named storm, this year's Zeta with Nov 29 2005 Epsilon for 27th named storm, and this year's Epsilon with Dec 30 2005 Zeta for 28th. If we get to Eta this year (28th named),  we will tie 2005 for total named storms. The Greek alphabet then goes Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda ... and some more but I think that has to be about the limit. Otherwise it might be famous Accuweather forecasters for Tropical Storm Abrams, Hurricane (of course) Bastardi and so on and so forth. But there are 13 more Greek letters after lambda, I think Hurricane Omicron would be worth moving up to get it in there. (Oh my God, it's Omicron) ... Hurricane Omega -- you don't want that hitting your town. There could be a Mu and a Nu on the go at the same time -- ultra confusing. 

Whether the media or other parties pick up on this or not remains to be seen (I would expect the NWS to issue corrective reports if the date comparisons fail to take the 2005 change into account). 

My guess is that we will reach the Greek alphabet stage but we might not go six letters in as they did in 2005, with all the very late activity in mid Nov and even Dec 2005 adding four more then. 

More Greek trivia, only Beta and Epsilon (2 and 5) were hurricanes in 2005, so there is still room for the first Hurricane(s) Alpha, Gamma,  Delta, Zeta and all the rest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

This would be Teddy unless that other invest makes it to TS faster, in which case Vicky. After that comes Wilfred, and on to the Greek alphabet. 

Sally was 20 days earlier than Stan (2005), the former earliest 18th storm on record. 

In 2005, after the season ended, an un-named storm was inserted between Stan and Tammy in the list, namely the "Azores Subtropical Storm." That was born Oct 4 and Tammy on Oct 5. So Teddy (whichever wave becomes himself) will have to be compared to the Azores STS for record timing, and Vicky to Tammy, Wilfred to Vince (formed Oct 8, 2005), then Alpha if we get that far to Wilma (reached TS status Oct 17, 2005), which could set up the confusing situation that this year's Alpha will be not the earliest 22nd named storm but the earliest Greek letter storm (if it were to form between the dates of Wilma, now bumped to 22nd, and Alpha (23rd named storm) in 2005 which formed Oct 22nd). An Alpha forming Oct 18 to Oct 21 would create that dichotomy. This year's Beta will need to form ahead of 2005 Alpha before Oct 22nd to become earliest 23rd named storm.

The other benchmarks for formation are ... this year's Gamma will need to be ahead of Oct 27 2005 Beta for 24th named storm, this year's Delta will be compared with Nov 14 2005 Gamma for 25th named storm, this year's Epsilon with Nov 22 2005 Delta for 26th named storm, this year's Zeta with Nov 29 2005 Epsilon for 27th named storm, and this year's Epsilon with Dec 30 2005 Zeta for 28th. If we get to Eta this year (28th named),  we will tie 2005 for total named storms. The Greek alphabet then goes Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda ... and some more but I think that has to be about the limit. Otherwise it might be famous Accuweather forecasters for Tropical Storm Abrams, Hurricane (of course) Bastardi and so on and so forth. But there are 13 more Greek letters after lambda, I think Hurricane Omicron would be worth moving up to get it in there. (Oh my God, it's Omicron) ... Hurricane Omega -- you don't want that hitting your town. There could be a Mu and a Nu on the go at the same time -- ultra confusing. 

Whether the media or other parties pick up on this or not remains to be seen (I would expect the NWS to issue corrective reports if the date comparisons fail to take the 2005 change into account). 

My guess is that we will reach the Greek alphabet stage but we might not go six letters in as they did in 2005, with all the very late activity in mid Nov and even Dec 2005 adding four more then. 

More Greek trivia, only Beta and Epsilon (2 and 5) were hurricanes in 2005, so there is still room for the first Hurricane(s) Alpha, Gamma,  Delta, Zeta and all the rest.

Beta was a nice little storm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

This would be Teddy unless that other invest makes it to TS faster, in which case Vicky. After that comes Wilfred, and on to the Greek alphabet. 

Sally was 20 days earlier than Stan (2005), the former earliest 18th storm on record. 

In 2005, after the season ended, an un-named storm was inserted between Stan and Tammy in the list, namely the "Azores Subtropical Storm." That was born Oct 4 and Tammy on Oct 5. So Teddy (whichever wave becomes himself) will have to be compared to the Azores STS for record timing, and Vicky to Tammy, Wilfred to Vince (formed Oct 8, 2005), then Alpha if we get that far to Wilma (reached TS status Oct 17, 2005), which could set up the confusing situation that this year's Alpha will be not the earliest 22nd named storm but the earliest Greek letter storm (if it were to form between the dates of Wilma, now bumped to 22nd, and Alpha (23rd named storm) in 2005 which formed Oct 22nd). An Alpha forming Oct 18 to Oct 21 would create that dichotomy. This year's Beta will need to form ahead of 2005 Alpha before Oct 22nd to become earliest 23rd named storm.

The other benchmarks for formation are ... this year's Gamma will need to be ahead of Oct 27 2005 Beta for 24th named storm, this year's Delta will be compared with Nov 14 2005 Gamma for 25th named storm, this year's Epsilon with Nov 22 2005 Delta for 26th named storm, this year's Zeta with Nov 29 2005 Epsilon for 27th named storm, and this year's Epsilon with Dec 30 2005 Zeta for 28th. If we get to Eta this year (28th named),  we will tie 2005 for total named storms. The Greek alphabet then goes Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda ... and some more but I think that has to be about the limit. Otherwise it might be famous Accuweather forecasters for Tropical Storm Abrams, Hurricane (of course) Bastardi and so on and so forth. But there are 13 more Greek letters after lambda, I think Hurricane Omicron would be worth moving up to get it in there. (Oh my God, it's Omicron) ... Hurricane Omega -- you don't want that hitting your town. There could be a Mu and a Nu on the go at the same time -- ultra confusing. 

Whether the media or other parties pick up on this or not remains to be seen (I would expect the NWS to issue corrective reports if the date comparisons fail to take the 2005 change into account). 

My guess is that we will reach the Greek alphabet stage but we might not go six letters in as they did in 2005, with all the very late activity in mid Nov and even Dec 2005 adding four more then. 

More Greek trivia, only Beta and Epsilon (2 and 5) were hurricanes in 2005, so there is still room for the first Hurricane(s) Alpha, Gamma,  Delta, Zeta and all the rest.

Wouldn’t it be something to retire a letter of the Greek alphabet! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DDweatherman said:

My guess is that we will reach the Greek alphabet stage but we might not go six letters in as they did in 2005, with all the very late activity in mid Nov and even Dec 2005 adding four more then. 

I mean...at our current pace...you don't think we could? Lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc and gfs shifted  west with teddy. Closer to bermuda

Yeah decent shift west but still recurved. Need that 1035hp to somehow block it and send it west but just doesnt look like its gonna happen. East coast getting lucky this year.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Yeah decent shift west but still recurved. Need that 1035hp to somehow block it and send it west but just doesnt look like its gonna happen. East coast getting lucky this year.

Cmc

gem_mslpa_atl_36.png

gem_mslpa_atl_38.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, shaggy said:

Euro is east again so just dont see any changes to this so another fish seems likely.

The model is performing very badly. Not sure it means anything at this juncture.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This has been upgraded to a record-breaking tropical storm, named Teddy.

 

000
WTNT45 KNHC 140859
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Earlier ASCAT data indciated peak winds of 33 kt in the northwestern
quadrant of the depression. Since then, convection has increased and
so have the various satellite intensity estimates. The initial
intensity is increased to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data, and
satellite estimates of T3.5/35 kt from TAFB and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS
SATCON. This makes Tropical Storm Teddy the earliest 19th named
storm, besting the unnamed tropical storm on October 4, 2005.

The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. A deep-layer subtropical
ridge positioned over the central Atlantic should keep Teddy moving
west-northwestward for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the
ridge is expected to shift northward and eastward, and the
strengthening cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward around the
western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track guidance is
general agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new
official forecast track is similar to the previous one and lies down
the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the consensus model
tracks.

Teddy will have several days to strengthen over very warm ocean
temperatures and within a light vertical wind shear regime. The
only hindrance to intensification will be intermittent intrusions
of dry mid-level air that will briefly disrupt the inner-core
convective structure. The NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged
and brings Teddy major hurricane strength by the middle of the week.
Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that
Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can't bear to make
that forecast at this time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 13.4N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 13.8N 42.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 14.3N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.0N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 16.9N 49.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 18.3N 50.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 21.0N 53.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 23.9N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that 
Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can't bear to make 
that forecast at this time.

Nice pun by Stewart.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Euro is east again so just dont see any changes to this so another fish seems likely.
Another fish? As opposed to the previous two of seven that haven't made landfall, those being Omar and Rene? lol.

 

*hint* Paulette just made landfall and those count. Just messin' with ya.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.