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Winter 2020-21 Discussion


Hoosier
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5 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

I was referring specifically to the Jan 12th(??) System that had warning headlines flying for ice and/or snow, neither of which materialized to storm levels. And it was across multiple states not just here in MI. Worst fail in decades. Some offices even issued an explanation or attempted one. Don't think any of the 3 Lower Mich offices did tho

 My memory of that specific storm is kind of vague since I personally was never on the wintry side of it, but wasn't that the storm where they were predicting an epic ice storm for some areas that just did not materialize? Dont remember the snow aspect. We ended up with very heavy rain which ended as freezing rain then a dusting of snow.

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18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Last year you could see the pattern setting up to favor an usually far south early snow, which actually ended up happening at the end of October.  This would take it to the next level though.

Just a few days ago was the anniversary of the record earliest measureable snowfall for part of the sub, 1947.

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31 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Moderate Ninas can be very fun. The last few have been plentiful for the region outside of the Ohio Valley, even then 08 worked out for them in a few cases.

Iiuc we may even be looking at a strong Nina. Tradition says that'd be worse for us. But lately everything has bucked tradition. Counting on this to do the same. I do feel that if winter comes in fast and furious it will leave the same way. By that I mean early.

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2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Iiuc we may even be looking at a strong Nina. Tradition says that'd be worse for us. But lately everything has bucked tradition. Counting on this to do the same. I do feel that if winter comes in fast and furious it will leave the same way. By that I mean early.

Thats my favourite type of winter. Early season snow and cold and then spring starts fast mid march 

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Looked back at some historic snowstorms during previous La Nina's and one really stood out to me. On Feb 24, 1965 a strong Gulf Low had developed and tracked up north towards the Ohio Valley and later on to Quebec. Toronto recorded 17" with that storm. I was reading an old news article that mentioned it was the worst storm in Detroit in 35 years with nearly a foot of snow. Some other cities like Indianapolis received 10" of snow and Toledo received close to a foot as well. 

Would be nice to experience something like that again. I'd gladly take a repeat of 1964-65, thanks. 

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13 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Looked back at some historic snowstorms during previous La Nina's and one really stood out to me. On Feb 24, 1965 a strong Gulf Low had developed and tracked up north towards the Ohio Valley and later on to Quebec. Toronto recorded 17" with that storm. I was reading an old news article that mentioned it was the worst storm in Detroit in 35 years with nearly a foot of snow. Some other cities like Indianapolis received 10" of snow and Toledo received close to a foot as well. 

Would be nice to experience something like that again. I'd gladly take a repeat of 1964-65, thanks. 

64-65 was pretty decent. Mby got 13+ from that storm. Ofc I was 8 (mos) and remember only an after photo. :yikes:@ Detroit. The land of 30+ year Big Dog droughts.

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2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

64-65 was pretty decent. Mby got 13+ from that storm. Ofc I was 8 (mos) and remember only an after photo. :yikes:@ Detroit. The land of 30+ year Big Dog droughts.

Decent winter. good on snowcover but there were a few thaws. This was a good storm, broke the big snowstorm drought of the '30s-50s. 

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52 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Closest match based on progression of Nino region SSTAs and MEI is probably 2007-08 at this point.

Euro and CFS both have a robust easterly wind burst over the next 2 weeks. Still a lot of cold subsurface anomalies esp below eastern Nino regions. I would expect the ENSO regions to cool down over the next few weeks solidifying a moderate Nina come NDJ. Even across western regions it has cooled down some over the past few weeks. We currently have an east based La Nina right now. 2017 and 2007 are the two most recent east-based La Nina’s. 2013 too if you want to consider it as it was borderline weak Nina.

I would assume Nina's are fairly dry for your region in the winter. 

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