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WxWatcher007

Back From The Dead: Tropical Storm Paulette

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Creeping closer to a major hurricane strike on Bermuda if the forecast holds. Regardless, a Category 2 strike for what should be an intensifying hurricane is a big impact. How rapidly does Paulette get its act together tonight and how does its core impact the island? It is a small target even for a large eyewall.

 

Additionally, 120 hours forecasted at hurricane intensity, Paulette is going to be our biggest ACE producer of the season so far by a large margin.

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It appears Paulette did in fact get its act together over night. Dual CBs rotating about the nascent eye typical of a strengthening hurricane. I'd expect steady intensification through tomorrow.962306de839686e94b38f9eb7e31a383.gif

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Structure is still fairly "bone-y" The dry mid-level environment air with RH near 40%, it takes time for the inner core convection to moisten in the general absence of wind shear. Kinda interested to see if it takes a run at a Cat 3. Shear is very low, but that air is pretty dry. 

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409 
WTNT42 KNHC 131450
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Paulette this
morning found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 92 kt, which reduces
to around 75 kt at the surface. However, around that same time the
peak winds measured by the SFMR instrument on board the aircraft
were only 58 kt. It is possible that the stronger winds suggested by
the flight-level values were not reaching the surface at that
location. Later on in the flight, the SFMR measured 64-kt winds in
the northwestern quadrant. Since there has been no notable change to
the structure of the hurricane since the aircraft was in the system
a few hours ago, the initial intensity is being held at 70 kt and is
a compromise of those two different peak values measured by the
aircraft.

Infrared satellite imagery has been showing some dry air intrusion 
over the eastern portion of the circulation, causing a break in the 
eyewall there over the past few hours. There is currently deep 
convection firing around the remainder of the eyewall, and therefore 
it is anticipated the dry air will be worked out of the system soon. 
Very low wind shear and warm waters will support strengthening over 
the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous 
hurricane as it nears Bermuda Monday morning. The window for 
strengthening should continue for another 12-24 h after the cyclone 
passes Bermuda, and Paulette could become a major hurricane during 
that time. After 48 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to rapidly 
increase. After 72 h, Paulette is expected to cross the 26 degree C 
SST isotherm, and by 120 h those SSTs will be near 22 degrees C. 
The NHC forecast shows a weakening trend beginning after 48 h due to 
the negative environmental factors. By 120 h, the global models 
suggest that Paulette will have completed a transition to an 
extratropical cyclone.  The only change to the NHC intensity 
forecast from the previous advisory was a slight upward adjustment 
over the first few days due to the increase in strength found by 
the aircraft this morning. This forecast is in between the LGEM and 
HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA.

Paulette is now moving northwestward at 12 kt, to the southwest of a 
mid-level ridge. This motion should continue until just after the 
cyclone passes Bermuda. Later on Monday, the hurricane should turn 
north, then on Monday night northeastward, as it rounds the 
periphery of the ridge. After turning northeastward, the cyclone 
is expected to accelerate as it gets picked up in the mid-latitude 
flow ahead of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough. Later on 
in the forecast period, a slower eastward motion is indicated once 
the aforementioned trough bypasses the cyclone. The latest NHC 
forecast track is little changed from the previous one through 48 h 
and lies in the middle of the latest global and regional track 
model guidance. Beyond 48 h, the NHC forecast is a little faster 
than the previous one, and lies near the tightly clustered consensus 
track guidance. On the forecast track, tropical storm conditions 
should reach Bermuda by this evening, with hurricane force winds 
arriving there overnight.  

Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane today 
and will be near the island tonight and Monday.  A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is in
effect for the island.  Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 29.9N  61.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 30.9N  63.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 32.8N  64.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 35.0N  63.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 37.0N  60.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  16/0000Z 39.1N  55.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 41.4N  49.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 43.9N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 44.0N  36.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

 

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FINALLY a classic looking central Atlantic Hurricane. I think this could be a historic storm for Bermuda. If it tracks just west or over the island it will quite literally pivot on Bermuda. An intensifying cat 2 or 3 hurricane with no land to slow winds and slow movement makes this a very serious situation. I expect a cat 3 near the closest approach while continuing to intensify, effectively mixing those winds down. 

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There is a lost of dry air to the east of the system. NErly Shear is low enough now that it shouldn't be that big of a deal   The storm may actually reach it's peak intensity north of Bermuda when SW shear starts to kick in.   

Bermuda will take its worst hit since Gonzalo 2014.   And that sound on the webcam are tree frogs.

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1 hour ago, Amped said:

There is a lost of dry air to the east of the system. NErly Shear is low enough now that it shouldn't be that big of a deal   The storm may actually reach it's peak intensity north of Bermuda when SW shear starts to kick in.   

Bermuda will take its worst hit since Gonzalo 2014.   And that sound on the webcam are tree frogs.

Nicole, Humberto?

At least one Bermudian member on another forum described Humberto as "worse than Fabian" (although it didn't cause any fatalities on the island territory, so it won't be retired).

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Recon says this hasn't really deepened. 975mb 70kt it looks like.   Concentric eyewalls appear to be forming on radar.

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Looks like the northeastern and eastern eyewall may have missed the island just to their east which had the most intense echoes on radar when it went down, so it's just speculation based on last trajectory and IR that they avoided the worst Paulette had to offer. However, they still got the N and NW eyewall. They are now in the eye and are reporting a clear enough night sky to see stars and planets.

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The south shore of the island should be receiving part of the SE eyewall soon so they may not yet have experienced the worst conditions of the landfall event as the backside (SE quadrant) of Paulette's eyewall may be stronger than what they experienced during the front (NW quadrant). There is a slight parallax on the IR image versus the actual position of the island within the eye.

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NHC did not specifically use the word "landfall" in the 5 AM AST advisory but this should suffice at any rate:

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located over northeastern Bermuda or near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 64.7 West.
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18 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

NHC did not specifically use the word "landfall" in the 5 AM AST advisory but this should suffice at any rate:

Now every Atlantic Hurricane has made landfall this season. I know I know, Marco fell apart, but it did make landfall as a TS

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Feeling a little cheated here. I was hopeful Paulette would strengthen to major hurricane status after turning into stacked flow NE of Bermuda while still over the GS and gaining forward speed. I thought it could pull it off. Alas, one less MH to bank on for seasonal totals.49cd07b528e73dea4c11c21dffcb0be3.gif

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On 9/14/2020 at 5:48 AM, Windspeed said:

NHC did not specifically use the word "landfall" in the 5 AM AST advisory but this should suffice at any rate:

If they haven't I'm gonna guess there will be a debate/further investigation as to if the actual true center made landfall.  You know scientists, facts are facts lol. 

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If they haven't I'm gonna guess there will be a debate/further investigation as to if the actual true center made landfall.  You know scientists, facts are facts lol. 

The center of eye coordinates were over the NE portion of the island. I'm not sure why a landfall would be debated in that respect. At any rate, the entire island was inside the eye. I doubt it'll be a hot topic. lol.. 

 

 

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Can someone tell me if the end of Paulette's forecast track is exceedingly rare? I don't think I have ever seen a near 90 degree due south turn?

Also, what the hell is up with the disturbance NE of the azores that the NHC says has a chance of tropical formation?

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3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Can someone tell me if the end of Paulette's forecast track is exceedingly rare? I don't think I have ever seen a near 90 degree due south turn?

Also, what the hell is up with the disturbance NE of the azores that the NHC says has a chance of tropical formation?

Go run the 18z GFS and check out Paulette...the cone doesn’t do it justice. Paulette does some seriously batshit crazy stuff. Probably won’t happen but if it’s 2020 so who knows. 

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