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WxWatcher007

Back From The Dead: Tropical Storm Paulette

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The 5 am disco made me want to learn and find out what these things are that I bolded below 

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

The 20-30 kt of southwesterly shear continues to have a significant 
impact on Paulette's inner core.  A 0615 UTC Global Precipitation 
Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager overpass showed a severely 
sheared tropical cyclone with the exposed surface circulation 
displaced to the south of the cloud canopy.  Although the 
objective ADT and an earlier SATCON analysis yield 45 kt, The 
initial intensity is held at a generous 50 kt for this advisory in 
deference to last night's scatterometer pass showing a few 50 kt 
winds.

In addition to the moderate, persistent shear, the RAMMB/CIRA
Average Vertical Instability parameter time series analysis 
revealed a higher than normal (1995-2010) statically stable 
environment, another potential inhibiting factor.  This was further 
supported by the statistical-dynamical intensity models showing 
a rather parched mid-troposphere (less than 58%).  Therefore, 
slow weakening of Paulette is forecast during the next few days.  
Toward the end of the period, the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity 
models continue to indicate a more southerly, diffluent pattern 
which should aid in some restrengthening, and this is indicated in 
the NHC forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/7 kt. 
Paulette should turn west-northwestward later today and westward on
Thursday around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge 
to the northeast of the cyclone.  A turn northwestward is predicted 
on Saturday as Paulette moves further into a growing weakness in 
the ridge over the western Atlantic.  The official forecast is an 
update of the previous one through 72 hrs, then is shifted to the 
left through day 5 to lies between the HCCA consensus and the  
the HFIP/NUOPC Project's 5EMN 133 member multi-model ensemble mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 19.2N  45.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 19.7N  46.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 20.3N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 20.5N  50.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 20.8N  52.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 21.4N  53.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 22.7N  54.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 25.9N  58.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 28.7N  61.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

 

 

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50 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

NHS seems to be more optimistic about the long term future of this storm. 11pm update brings it's winds up to 75mph at 120hrs

So optimism is a minimal hurricane during peak season?

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Models have really trended up with this systems intensity as it rounds the western perimeter of the ridge, a common position for strengthening. It would not surprise me to see this storm make a run a a major as the shear weakens and the vector improves. It could be a close call for Bermuda 

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Posted in the main thread, but I am not overly convinced that the trough moving through Canada this weekend is going to be enough to weaken the ridge substantially. I could see a scenario where Paulette becomes trapped under the new ridge moving off the East coast. The PAR GFS has a funky scenario where the system gets trapped, moves South, then West and then eventually ends up in Northern Ireland as a powerful extratropical low.

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It's probably also worth mentioning that the LLC was completely exposed this morning, but seems to be moving towards the recent burst of convection on latest IR loop.

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Posted in the main thread, but I am not overly convinced that the trough moving through Canada this weekend is going to be enough to weaken the ridge substantially. I could see a scenario where Paulette becomes trapped under the new ridge moving off the East coast. The PAR GFS has a funky scenario where the system gets trapped, moves South, then West and then eventually ends up in Northern Ireland as a powerful extratropical low.

I've had a felix 1995 vibe with paulette for awhile. 

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Ever seen a tutt get choke slammed?

GFS widshear 24-72.   I expect to Paulette to be a major hurricane around 72 hrs or shortly after.

202GYGl.gif

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5 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Yep, NHC continuing to tick up forecast intensity. Moderate Cat 2 near Bermuda

I think this one has a good shot at getting to a major if it can hold in the face of this wind shear through tomorrow. HWRF gets it to a major in about 72 hours and brings it very close to Bermuda at ~80 kts. 

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IR is lighting up near the center now and the outflow is fanning out to the north pretty well. I wasn't expecting much intensification until tonight but it appears to have started already if this trend keeps up. Not good for Bermuda.

 

Models are also showing a large eye, which increases the odds Bermuda gets in it.

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37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

NHC forecast now just below major status now. Really good chance this gets there.

Also has a lot of annular potential. The evolution is very similar to other storms that merged with an ULL in the central Atlantic.  Probably going to form a large eye that can fit Rene's  35kt windfield. 

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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just below hurricane strength now in here face of all that shear. Very impressive. This one will be fun to watch when shear diminishes. Very close call for Bermuda though.

Yeah, very interested to see the type of intensification this goes under once the shear subsides. What could be the explanation as to just how it’s continued to organize and strengthen despite such strong shear? Seems like a fairly popular trend this season that storms have been able to weather and survive significant shear/Or land interaction(although not to the extent Paulette has been able to). 

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NHC track for Paulette is increasingly concerning for Bermuda.  Not from a direct hit (although definitely possible) but that it slowly curves in very close proximity as a very powerful storm "using" Bermuda as the "pivot point" unfortunately on the strong side of the system.  There was one that did something similar but just to the E maybe 7-8 years ago that did a ton of damage can't remember the name.  If I remember right they were literally flying residents/tourists off the Island until the last minute.  Regardless, the current track and intensity forecast has Paulette doing something similar only stronger and longer and west.  To be honest, this is the absolute worse scenario for a potential major to strike Bermuda because it could be under the gun with possibly Cat1 to Cat3 winds for 24-36 hours or more with Bermuda on the strong side of "the curve".  Some of the models that show a large eye might be good news if Bermuda can stay in it as long as possible.  Hopefully it doesn't intensify or swings wide.

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True to this season, dry air has completely nuked the convective organization this morning. With a robust circulation and decreasing shear today I’m sure it’s temporary, but nothings coming easy in the tropics this season 

ED5AC5E4-ABAF-499D-8A82-1A359D168799.jpeg

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

True to this season, dry air has completely nuked the convective organization this morning. With a robust circulation and decreasing shear today I’m sure it’s temporary, but nothings coming easy in the tropics this season 

ED5AC5E4-ABAF-499D-8A82-1A359D168799.jpeg

Lol

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Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

Paulette's structure is going through a bit of an evolution as the 
deep-layer shear backs from southwesterly to southeasterly.  Most 
of the deep convection had waned earlier this morning, but new 
convection is beginning to develop near the center as the cyclone 
reconstitutes itself.  For now, the initial intensity remains 60 
kt.  An overnight AMSR microwave pass showed that Paulette has 
well-defined low-level banding features, and this structure should 
allow the cyclone to strengthen as vertical shear falls below 10 kt 
during the next 12-24 hours.  Strengthening is anticipated to 
continue through day 3, and after that time, gradual weakening is 
possible due to increasing southwesterly shear.  The intensity 
guidance has been fairly stable for the past few forecast cycles, 
and no significant changes were required to this new NHC intensity 
forecast, which lies close to the HCCA model and just a bit above 
the intensity consensus.  Paulette is likely to be strengthening 
while it makes its closest approach to Bermuda in about 48 hours, 
and the GFS-based SHIPS and HWRF models each suggest that there is 
a possibility of it becoming a major hurricane in 72 hours.

Paulette is moving northwestward (310/13 kt), with a break in the 
subtropical ridge located due north of the storm.  The ridge may 
strengthen briefly over the next day or so, causing Paulette to 
move west-northwestward for a short time, but it should resume the 
northwestward motion by late Sunday.  After that time, an 
approaching longwave trough over the northeastern United States 
will erode the ridge eastward, causing Paulette to recurve sharply 
toward the north and then northeast between days 2 and 3.  The 
hurricane is then expected to accelerate east-northeastward toward 
the north Atlantic on days 4 and 5, embedded within the 
mid-latitude flow.  The track guidance is well clustered and has 
not shown any significant shifts over the past few forecast cycles. 
Therefore, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous 
one.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on
Sunday and be near the island Sunday night and Monday.  A prolonged 
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected 
on Bermuda beginning late Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning 
has been issued for the island.  Preparations to protect life and 
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda, 
and are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United 
States during the next day or two. These swells could cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 27.5N  57.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 28.5N  59.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 29.5N  61.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 30.8N  63.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 32.4N  64.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  15/0000Z 34.2N  64.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 35.8N  61.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 39.0N  54.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 42.0N  47.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Dropsonde in that portion of the storm.

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 22:45Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307 
Storm Number: 17
Storm Name: Paulette (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 22Z on the 12th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 28.8N 59.3W
Location: 406 statute miles (654 km) to the SE (127°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
Marsden Square: 078 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -85m (-279 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
990mb (29.24 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 24.5°C (76°F) 345° (from the NNW) 58 knots (67 mph)
925mb 601m (1,972 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 21.2°C (70°F) 20° (from the NNE) 73 knots (84 mph)
850mb 1,334m (4,377 ft) 18.4°C (65.1°F) 17.7°C (64°F) 20° (from the NNE) 69 knots (79 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 22:25Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in maximum wind band.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 28.78N 59.31W
- Time: 22:25:14Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 28.73N 59.32W
- Time: 22:27:28Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 355° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 67 knots (77 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 15° (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 69 knots (79 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 827mb to 990mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 350° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 64 knots (74 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
990mb (Surface) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 24.5°C (76°F)
850mb 18.4°C (65.1°F) 17.7°C (64°F)
833mb 17.4°C (63.3°F) 17.3°C (63°F)
827mb Unavailable
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
990mb (Surface) 345° (from the NNW) 58 knots (67 mph)
981mb 350° (from the N) 65 knots (75 mph)
966mb 350° (from the N) 70 knots (81 mph)
945mb 5° (from the N) 68 knots (78 mph)
935mb 15° (from the NNE) 78 knots (90 mph)
922mb 20° (from the NNE) 73 knots (84 mph)
898mb 20° (from the NNE) 75 knots (86 mph)
877mb 25° (from the NNE) 68 knots (78 mph)
850mb 20° (from the NNE) 69 knots (79 mph)
827mb 15° (from the NNE) 65 knots (75 mph)

 

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Clearly a hurricane. #6 of the year. Soon should be joined by Sally and (future) Teddy. We'll be up to 8 hurricanes. The ACE will get cooking.

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000
WTNT42 KNHC 130240
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made multiple passes 
through the center of Paulette earlier this evening. The plane 
reported max 850-mb flight-level winds of 78 kt and believable SFMR 
winds of 58 kt. A dropsonde in the southeast quadrant measured 
adjusted mean boundary layer winds of just over 60 kt while multiple 
center drops revealed that the minimum pressure is now down to 981 
mb. Taken together, these observations support an intensity of 65 
kt, making Paulette the 6th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season.

The plane found the Paulette has turned west-northwestward and is 
nearly exactly on the previous forecast track. With no major changes 
in the track guidance either, there is no reason to make any changes 
of note to the previous NHC track forecast at this time. A mid-level 
ridge building to the north of Paulette should keep the hurricane 
moving generally west-northwestward for the next day or so. The 
ridge and a mid-level trough to the west should then slide eastward 
by early Monday, causing Paulette to slow and turn northward, moving 
very near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Paulette is then forecast 
to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction by Tuesday. 
The NHC forecast remains in the middle of the tightly clustered 
guidance suite at all forecast hours.

Paulette appears to be getting more vertically aligned as the shear 
that has affected the cyclone for the past several days slowly 
decreases. Further intensification appears likely through early 
Monday given the warm SSTs below Paulette and favorable upper-air 
environment that is expected to develop around the cyclone. Dry air 
in the surrounding environment could be a limiting factor, but all 
of the intensity guidance continues to indicate that Paulette will 
be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and 
early Monday. Further intensification will then be possible for 
another day or so after the hurricane begins to move away from 
Bermuda and it could be near major hurricane strength by the middle 
of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the 
latest intensity guidance throughout the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday 
and will be near the island Sunday night and Monday.  A prolonged 
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected 
on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in 
effect for the island.  Preparations to protect life and property 
should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and 
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 28.9N  59.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 29.7N  61.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 31.0N  63.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 32.6N  65.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 34.5N  64.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  15/1200Z 36.2N  61.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 37.7N  57.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 41.0N  49.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 43.5N  42.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

 

024153_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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