Autumn 2020 Banter

[hudsonvalley21]

33 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

So whats the cutoff for “snow this early is a bad sign for winter” and “early season snow like the days of yore”? My guess is I-84?

La la lock it up. Fo sho

 

[IrishRob17]

9 hours ago, BxEngine said:

So whats the cutoff for “snow this early is a bad sign for winter” and “early season snow like the days of yore”? My guess is I-84?

My guess would’ve been Ant’s house in Brooklyn. 

[rclab]

48 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

My guess would’ve been Ant’s house in Brooklyn. 

That what he gets for proposing NYC UHI effect be part of the next climate change agreement. As always .....

[BxEngine]

On 10/27/2020 at 9:06 PM, BxEngine said:

So whats the cutoff for “snow this early is a bad sign for winter” and “early season snow like the days of yore”? My guess is I-84?

Glad we’re gonna mostly dodge this climatological psychoanalysis. 

[IrishRob17]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

38 here in Brooklyn with sleet mixing in

Terrible, winter is over, forgettaboutit.

[LibertyBell]

Been snowing since 7 am looks amazing outside!  I dont care if it doesn't snow for the rest of the season, you take snow when you can get it and worry about tomorrow tomorrow......

 

[NorthShoreWx]

4 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Terrible, winter is over, forgettaboutit.

Snow in October, winter is over.  It just takes a flake.

This applies to the entire sub-forum except the north shore. 

[Nibor]

October snows bring

The end of winter for all

weenie tears abound

[uncle W]

up and down temperatures are possible this week...back in 1965 it was 32 degrees the morning of Oct 29th...by the 31st the temp hit a high of 72...Then on Nov 2nd the temp dropped to 31...then on the 4th the temp rebounded to 71...So we can see big changes in temperature this time of year...

[Dan76]

[Great Snow 1717]

13 hours ago, Dan76 said:

Likely underdone..........

[LibertyBell]

If we actually had a 920 mb low hit us directly, what would that do? 100 mph winds and a high storm surge regardless of what kind of storm it was?

What's the strongest storm that has actually hit land between Cape May and Eastport, ME and how strong was it?

 

[etudiant]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

If we actually had a 920 mb low hit us directly, what would that do? 100 mph winds and a high storm surge regardless of what kind of storm it was?

What's the strongest storm that has actually hit land between Cape May and Eastport, ME and how strong was it?

 

Think the 1821 hurricane had a bigger storm surge than Sandy and is probably the strongest in recorded times. However, Wikipedia notes that there was a stronger storm around 1300+/-, based on evidence from diggings.

The weather will always confound our expectations, think of Dorian glued in place for days and then transpose that to our NJ/NY/ Ct corner of the world.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Think the 1821 hurricane had a bigger storm surge than Sandy and is probably the strongest in recorded times. However, Wikipedia notes that there was a stronger storm around 1300+/-, based on evidence from diggings.

The weather will always confound our expectations, think of Dorian glued in place for days and then transpose that to our NJ/NY/ Ct corner of the world.

Yes, imagine if that storm had moved a scant 100 miles farther west and stalled there......

 

[BxEngine]

Feeling better about our winter chances now considering some of the prognosticators in the main thread. 

[NorthShoreWx]

We can alway reminisce:

WEATHER MAP DISCUSSION FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK..NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EST WED NOV 22 1989

...FIRST REAL SNOW EVENT ON THE WAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL GIVE US FAIR SKIES FOR A
SHORT PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BEGIN THE CHANGE
IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BE THE DRIVING FORCE TURNING A SOMEWHAT TAMED WEATHER PATTERN INTO A
RAGING EVENT LET LOOSE. THE STORM CENTER WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND SPREAD MOSTLY SNOW AHEAD OF IT. THEREFORE THIS WILL GIVE
US OUR FIRST REAL SNOW EVENT THIS SEASON. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM WILL REACH THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY THURSDAY POSSIBLY DUMPING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MANY
AREAS BEFORE RUSHING TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOPEFULLY THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE AS RAPIDLY AS PROJECTIONS CALL FOR..OTHERWISE IT MAY
TURN INTO A MAJOR EVENT. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COLD THANKSGIVING
DAY BUT TIS THE SEASON TO BE THmANKFUL. 

MJW

[LibertyBell]

On 11/3/2020 at 12:59 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

We can alway reminisce:

WEATHER MAP DISCUSSION FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK..NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EST WED NOV 22 1989

...FIRST REAL SNOW EVENT ON THE WAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL GIVE US FAIR SKIES FOR A
SHORT PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BEGIN THE CHANGE
IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BE THE DRIVING FORCE TURNING A SOMEWHAT TAMED WEATHER PATTERN INTO A
RAGING EVENT LET LOOSE. THE STORM CENTER WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND SPREAD MOSTLY SNOW AHEAD OF IT. THEREFORE THIS WILL GIVE
US OUR FIRST REAL SNOW EVENT THIS SEASON. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM WILL REACH THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY THURSDAY POSSIBLY DUMPING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MANY
AREAS BEFORE RUSHING TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOPEFULLY THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE AS RAPIDLY AS PROJECTIONS CALL FOR..OTHERWISE IT MAY
TURN INTO A MAJOR EVENT. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COLD THANKSGIVING
DAY BUT TIS THE SEASON TO BE THmANKFUL. 

MJW

I remember that storm well.....and the cold dry December that followed and then the record heat after that that made March feel like being on spring break lol.

 

[Nibor]

Record La Niña 

Brings the heat in the winter

Jump from the ledge now

[the_other_guy]

On 11/5/2020 at 1:32 PM, Nibor said:

Record La Niña 

Brings the heat in the winter

Jump from the ledge now

Walk away from the ledge. Save it for the third week in Feb.

Until then, find whiskey and start your snow blower...just to make sure its ready for that hopefully inevitable snow storm that melts within 24 hours.

Oh wait...that was last year with the better pattern 

[LibertyBell]

Chances of hitting 80 in February higher or getting 30 inches of seasonal snowfall higher?

 

[LibertyBell]

Alex Trebek RIP :-(  I grew up watching him host Jeopardy!

 

[Nibor]

On 11/6/2020 at 7:12 AM, jfklganyc said:

Walk away from the ledge. Save it for the third week in Feb.

Until then, find whiskey and start your snow blower...just to make sure its ready for that hopefully inevitable snow storm that melts within 24 hours.

Oh wait...that was last year with the better pattern 

Yeah but it’s more fun to overreact.

 

[LibertyBell]

If we do get an el nino next year, Summer 2021 may not be as hot as we think..... la ninas going into el ninos dont make for very hot summers.  Even in our 11 yr cycle of hot summers, the hottest tend to be el ninos going into la ninas, not vice versa.  Maybe Chris or Don could do an analysis of this.

 

[Will - Rutgers]

mid 70s for most of the area tomorrow, accumulation should be limited to the north and west.

[Rtd208]

You always have to appreciate the crystal ballers. 

[Juliancolton]

There have been a lot of fireballs and bright meteors this week, definitely higher than the ambient rate it seems. I didn't catch any of the big ones from dashcam videos making the rounds, but I have seen one or two high-end meteors per evening lately, mostly from west to east. Too lazy to open up Stellarium to figure out what the radiant might be.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

There have been a lot of fireballs and bright meteors this week, definitely higher than the ambient rate it seems. I didn't catch any of the big ones from dashcam videos making the rounds, but I have seen one or two high-end meteors per evening lately, mostly from west to east. Too lazy to open up Stellarium to figure out what the radiant might be.

Yes, I've seen them reported from Alabama to New Jersey to Quebec to Sweden!  Bright fireballs and the Alabama one was called an asteroid by NASA.  The one in NJ was a low flying meteoroid and the one in Sweden made it to around 15 km before disintegrating!  What's going on?  All unrelated to each other and not part of some outburst?

 

[Juliancolton]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I've seen them reported from Alabama to New Jersey to Quebec to Sweden!  Bright fireballs and the Alabama one was called an asteroid by NASA.  The one in NJ was a low flying meteoroid and the one in Sweden made it to around 15 km before disintegrating!  What's going on?  All unrelated to each other and not part of some outburst?

Maybe it's a sign that we're about to enter one of the famous Leonid outbursts? There are also probably some non-celestial factors contributing to high report rates. This stretch of fair weather across most of the east has allowed outdoor dining and gatherings to continue deep into the autumn, so if something happens during the increasingly dark evenings, it'll have been hard to miss. I mean, last night I was outside in shorts and a tee, starhopping around the winter constellations with a pair of binos. It was bizarre. Mid-60s under clear skies is something that simply doesn't happen in the middle of November.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Maybe it's a sign that we're about to enter one of the famous Leonid outbursts? There are also probably some non-celestial factors contributing to high report rates. This stretch of fair weather across most of the east has allowed outdoor dining and gatherings to continue deep into the autumn, so if something happens during the increasingly dark evenings, it'll have been hard to miss. I mean, last night I was outside in shorts and a tee, starhopping around the winter constellations with a pair of binos. It was bizarre. Mid-60s under clear skies is something that simply doesn't happen in the middle of November.

Yes the last one was in November 2001 and it was unforgettable.  I thought they recurred every 33 years but looking at the historical record there have been unpredictable outbursts that occur outside of the 33 year cycle.

The amazing weather is a good point too, it isn't just warm, it's been warm during the day and cold at night because of the exceptionally dry air; these are ideal desert-like viewing conditions!  I even saw the thin waning crescent moon yesterday at high noon.  I dont think I've ever seen it at that time before.   Of course the prime time celestial viewing weather is now coming to an end.

Did you see Mars the last few nights?  It looks exceptionally bright probably because it is closer than it will be for a few decades.

This is my favorite time of year for clear skies, M42 Orion Nebula is clearly visible, even visually and I imagine it's an amazing sight in 10x50 or larger binos.  M31 Andromeda Galaxy should look amazing too.

 

 

[BxEngine]

1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

Maybe it's a sign that we're about to enter one of the famous Leonid outbursts? There are also probably some non-celestial factors contributing to high report rates. This stretch of fair weather across most of the east has allowed outdoor dining and gatherings to continue deep into the autumn, so if something happens during the increasingly dark evenings, it'll have been hard to miss. I mean, last night I was outside in shorts and a tee, starhopping around the winter constellations with a pair of binos. It was bizarre. Mid-60s under clear skies is something that simply doesn't happen in the middle of November.

Oh its a sign alright.