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September Discobs 2020


George BM
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From Mount Holly AFD this morning-

The main forecast question today is if the skies will become whiter in appearance this afternoon, owing to another round of smoke from the fires in the western U.S. Latest HRRR-Smoke simulations indicate a fairly broad region of upper-level smoke will migrate eastward into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as westerly flow in the Midwest/Great Lakes reaches a col positioned on the East Coast. This pattern is favorable for the smoke to move into the region and subsequently stagnate in the highly diffluent upper-level flow west of Teddy. The sun may become more filtered today as the smoke moves into the area, and there may be some impacts on high temperatures. For now, though, think any effects on temperatures will be low, given that there will be plenty of time for radiational warming this morning.

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50 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If we end up with a moderate, CP based Nina, we likely wont be seeing many of these looks during winter.

Might as well enjoy it now.

 

16 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

SER all the way

Let's just go all the way for a super La Nina. It would be interesting to see what it would do during winter and next spring. Severe weather train rolling on for months?

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1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

32F again this morning with pretty good frost.  3 straight nights of freezing temps in mid September.   Truly amazing.

Even more remarkable is that KOKV hasn’t had a temperature above 70 in 8 days in the middle of September. Love to see the last time that happened.

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Well, if I’m going to do hand waving weenie talk, maybe it’s not so bad we’re getting a good pattern in late September and early October. Then perhaps we get a 4-6 week recycle and can get a decent cold pattern for December?  Before we break out the shorts and palm trees for January and February.

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Not saying there is a correlation, someone needs to confirm, but the Northern Atlantic is crazy and wondering about wave breaking as the NAO is set to tank on some modeling and the AO is a going down too .  Teddy producing some crazy winds and waves as well. 

Also, of interest , is the changing SST anomaly near the East Coast from the constant stream of swells and upwelling the past several weeks produced by the recent offshore hurricanes.

 

 

   

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Well, if I’m going to do hand waving weenie talk, maybe it’s not so bad we’re getting a good pattern in late September and early October. Then perhaps we get a 4-6 week recycle and can get a decent cold pattern for December?  Before we break out the shorts and palm trees for January and February.

Was last year the decent pattern in Nov? I am definitely not the best when it comes to remembering past winters but I feel like we had a great pattern in Nov that provided all the head fakes of decent winter around these parts. I’m sure there isn’t much correlation between any of it but at least it’s something different!

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Was last year the decent pattern in Nov? I am definitely not the best when it comes to remembering past winters but I feel like we had a great pattern in Nov that provided all the head fakes of decent winter around these parts. I’m sure there isn’t much correlation between any of it but at least it’s something different!

November of last year ended up with below average temperatures overall. So yeah probably last year.... but then again also the year before including the November 15th, 2018 snow event for some.

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25 minutes ago, George BM said:

November of last year ended up with below average temperatures overall. So yeah probably last year.... but then again also the year before including the November 15th, 2018 snow event for some.

Multiple snow events in Deep Creek last November....actually might have had more November snow than December snow there but I'm bad at remembering every detail of winter.

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