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September Discobs 2020


George BM
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23 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Pretty good slug of moisture moving into Southern MD. Interesting to see how much of that makes it up our way. Could be a rainy day if it makes it.

Yeah the air mass is going to really juice up with the SE flow between the Atlantic ridge and that trough off the SE coast- PW nearing 2". There is some mid/upper level support, including a strong jet, but its not clear where any area(s) of low level convergence may set up, and thus where the heaviest rain will be. Seems like S MD and up along the lower bay has the highest probability for our region today, but the mesos generally keep much of the activity down in eastern VA and offshore. That seems to make sense given the location of the trough. Tomorrow looks like the better day across guidance for more widespread heavy rain in our area with the front moving into the juicy air mass in place.

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Speaking of the front, it looks to become stationary just to our south. We may be entering into a pretty wet period.

Mount Holly's take-

Big changes come on Sunday. The stationary front south of the region lifts north as a warm front. Meanwhile, H5 trough passes through the Great Lakes and passes through the Ohio Valley before lifting north into the Northeast and eastern Canada. Surface low pressure develops around the Mason-Dixon line and lifts to the northeast Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain are possible, as surface dew points climb back into the 70s. After the surface low departs, the cold front passes through Sunday night, and once again becomes nearly stationary over the Mid- Atlantic.

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro is really juicy for the next 48-60 hours. Other models less enthused.  Most of the disagreement is on today. Euro rains over the metro corridor all afternoon into the overnight while gfs is mostly dry.

While I know you cannot advect radar, the regional mosaic appears to be lighting up.

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Glad I squeezed in a lawnmowing this morning. Grass needed cutting. Finished 11:00am, before the rain, granted grass had some water droplets from last nite which did not have a chance to fully evaporate this morning. But certainly not too wet to mow  

Now am watching my neighbor trying to mow in the rain at 1:15pm. A decent rainshower here has begun. Neighbor had to call it quits at 1:30.

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