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Fall Banter and General Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. I don’t think a stimulus like the previous one or a lockdown like earlier would be the answer.  Targeted to high risk activities and focus $$$ on businesses and industries that would be affected.   Have it be for a definite time period (3-4 weeks?) and have it decisive.      We can’t afford to stay at 100k-150k new cases and 1000+ daily deaths from this.    

Maybe an odd question, but why not? Eventually the virus will burn itself out. There are already signs that is happening. 

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1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

At this point all we can do is take all the necessary precautions to minimize/mitigate our exposure by following the basic protocols.  Pandora's box has been opened once we opened up the Country again.  We're in a transitional time until a vaccine becomes available that will reduce risk more but not eliminate it.  I fell this will become another "seasonal" virus, bit one that occurs year round.  Maybe over the long haul, we are able to build up a herd immunity, but I feel that's a long ways off.

The sooner people come to grips with the fact that the vaccine will not eliminate COVID and it will always be here, the sooner they can start being a little more rational about how to deal with it. Folks should realize that the govt and corporations are more than happy to keep you masked-up and at home forever. This has all been great for them on several levels. Every time we panic over case counts and demand a lockdown it gets harder to ever go back to normal. Hope some people see that...

 

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. I don’t think a stimulus like the previous one or a lockdown like earlier would be the answer.  Targeted to high risk activities and focus $$$ on businesses and industries that would be affected.   Have it be for a definite time period (3-4 weeks?) and have it decisive.      We can’t afford to stay at 100k-150k new cases and 1000+ daily deaths from this.    

The dollar is already under pressure from the enormous deficit spending our government has taken on this year, (and previous years frankly) and the implications of a similar follow-on program would be further acceleration of that downward trend, with resulting rising bond yields, commodity prices, general cost of living, you name it. With Republicans maintaining control in the Senate, I'd say the chances of any stimulus of trillion dollar scale passing again are slim.

There was also remarkable fraud in the PPP program; it was rolled out with such haste that there weren't sufficient safeguards for taxpayer capital. The number of new businesses registered the month that program became active was off the charts. Frankly, even with weakness in the economy, unless the stock and credit markets rolls over bigtime, you're not going to see real urgency out of our government. A market at all time highs does not signal distress to these people.

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13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Well, we can of course.  But the national psyche will continue to suffer if that is the case. 

Could be an interesting study one day. I think it's debatable which aspect of all of this caused the most suffering, fear, and dread at a national level. The concern over the risk of dying or a loved one dying from COVID versus the impact of shutdowns, business closures, school closures, and general economic decline. It's a complex problem.

I do believe there is very little appetite nationally for more shutdowns over COVID, and an attempted second round of them will get ugly.

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47 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Frankly, even with weakness in the economy, unless the stock and credit markets rolls over bigtime, you're not going to see real urgency out of our government. A market at all time highs does not signal distress to these people.

This is spot on.  All you hear about is the stock market from the gov't when they talk about national economic health.  But that's been the dichotomy this whole pandemic it seems... all this talk about economic ruin but then every day the stock market holds its own.  Very interesting to read about.  I know @cpickett79 has been all over that.

 the-stock-market-house-vs-the-economy-co

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is spot on.  All you hear about is the stock market from the gov't when they talk about national economic health.  But that's been the dichotomy this whole pandemic it seems... all this talk about economic ruin but then every day the stock market holds its own.  Very interesting to read about.  I know @cpickett79 has been all over that.

 the-stock-market-house-vs-the-economy-co

Stock Market is a joke.  Little more then 1/2 of Americans have a vested interest in it.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/teresaghilarducci/2020/08/31/most-americans-dont-have-a-real-stake-in-the-stock-market/?sh=5764560e1154

Count me as one of them.  My employer bailed on 401K in 2008 crash.

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14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Stock Market is a joke.  Little more then 1/2 of Americans have a vested interest in it.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/teresaghilarducci/2020/08/31/most-americans-dont-have-a-real-stake-in-the-stock-market/?sh=5764560e1154

Count me as one of them.  My employer bailed on 401K in 2008 crash.

This isn't true. Everyone has an interest either directly or indirectly. 

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51 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The new CoCoRAHS map is great for tallies.

Some east coast Florida totals since October 1st... looks pretty wet.  A widespread 12-36".

720007917_Screenshot2020-11-11095938.thumb.jpg.995f3cbf7e37e66c2cdeed50776426bf.jpg

516404455_Screenshot2020-11-11095859.thumb.jpg.04e818aae7c93a0d8af0f218b468aa55.jpg

Crazy wet, closest to me is the 19.11” just west of I 95 in the top image. Wetter now than during Irma. Thanks for posting!

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Hospitalizations for respiratory viruses are ticking up everywhere, as they do in flu season every year. This year there's no flu, just COVID?

The same thing is happening in states that are locked down with mask mandates.

Masks have not prevented these increases anywhere; not telling anyone not to mask but mandating it has not proven any great success. I believe (obviously could be wrong) but mask wearing for the healthy delays building any immunity to the virus it also weakens are immune systems to no germs or bacteria that we would normally be exposed to on a daily basis.

 

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4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Hospitalizations for respiratory viruses are ticking up everywhere, as they do in flu season every year. This year there's no flu, just COVID?

The same thing is happening in states that are locked down with mask mandates.

Masks have not prevented these increases anywhere; not telling anyone not to mask but mandating it has not proven any great success. I believe (obviously could be wrong) but mask wearing for the healthy delays building any immunity to the virus it also weakens are immune systems to no germs or bacteria that we would normally be exposed to on a daily basis.

 

Flu is down because of covid restrictions and is a less communicable disease so its numbers are much smaller. Still there is some flu around. 

Masks are effective but aren't a magic pill they are part of a multi-pronged approach at slowing down the disease spread. 

The last part is just crap. 

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Could be an interesting study one day. I think it's debatable which aspect of all of this caused the most suffering, fear, and dread at a national level. The concern over the risk of dying or a loved one dying from COVID versus the impact of shutdowns, business closures, school closures, and general economic decline. It's a complex problem.

I do believe there is very little appetite nationally for more shutdowns over COVID, and an attempted second round of them will get ugly.

Humans are a social species so I think the distancing has had a major psychological toll.  Is dying worse? Of course but the lockdowns are certainly taking a toll and the stress that goes along with them doesn’t help the immune system.

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Flu is down because of covid restrictions and is a less communicable disease so its numbers are much smaller. Still there is some flu around. 

Masks are effective but aren't a magic pill they are part of a multi-pronged approach at slowing down the disease spread. 

The last part is just crap. 

Yeah, flu isn't nearly as communicable, so masks and distancing really work to tamp it down. COVID fatigue seems to be real too. I was driving around downtown New Haven Saturday evening and noted the sidewalks were jam-packed with diners. Great for the local restaurants, but I'm not sure it mitigates risk being outside if you're shoulder to shoulder with fifty other people eating without masks.

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25 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Flu is down because of covid restrictions and is a less communicable disease so its numbers are much smaller. Still there is some flu around. 

Masks are effective but aren't a magic pill they are part of a multi-pronged approach at slowing down the disease spread. 

The last part is just crap. 

Regarding the last part, it issourced on the bottom

 

https://rationalground.com/mask-charts/

https://rationalground.com/more-mask-charts/

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

What is rational ground? It sounds like a conspiracy site. Why is that people don't understand that there are tons of conflating factors in the epidemiology? 

Nope, site of numbers collecting people; one is editor of news paper in Gainesville FL whose has done some really digging into the Numbers here in FL.  

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Just now, Modfan2 said:

Nope, site of numbers collecting people; one his editor of news paper in Gainesville FL whose has done some really digging into the Numbers here in FL.  

Lol. Alright. Maybe you should check out some reputable sources.  

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I am fine with my sources; were the dates and data on those charts not accurate?

 

I dont know. They might have been. Its a pandemic man, scientific sources should be preferred.

Even if they are correct, those charts don't tell you if the mandate is being enforced, how many people are actually wearing masks and wearing them properly, and nothing of the various other factors that are influencing spread at any given time. 

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46 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Hospitalizations for respiratory viruses are ticking up everywhere, as they do in flu season every year. This year there's no flu, just COVID?

The same thing is happening in states that are locked down with mask mandates.

Masks have not prevented these increases anywhere; not telling anyone not to mask but mandating it has not proven any great success. I believe (obviously could be wrong) but mask wearing for the healthy delays building any immunity to the virus it also weakens are immune systems to no germs or bacteria that we would normally be exposed to on a daily basis.

 

People that are getting infected the most are NOT wearings masks.  They're contracting the virus as social gatherings, schools, restaurants, bars, etc.  Wearing a mask reduces exposure and possibility of becoming infected.

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