Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread


Met1985
 Share

Recommended Posts

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina, including the northern mountains, Blue Ridge, foothills and northwest Piedmont. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.
e06a25e73a1d6cffc6fa73197198fe35.jpg

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at soundings on the HRRR and NAM 3km, there is a considerable difference on early Sunday morning.  It does appear that the tongue of precip will move through initially around 3pm-5pm, and that will persist in the northern area of WNC through 10pm or so.  Most of that will fall as snow.  But I don't think it accumulates.  Then the soundings differ.  NAM 3km has a bit more pronounced warm nose at the onset of precipitation early Sunday morning.  HRRR is not as cold, but doesn't have the pronounced warm nose.  I see a couple hours of snow possible early Sunday even for valley locations.  Then a mess will ensue it looks like.  Hoping the HRRR is right and its a bit warmer because ice is not very fun.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Looking at soundings on the HRRR and NAM 3km, there is a considerable difference on early Sunday morning.  It does appear that the tongue of precip will move through initially around 3pm-5pm, and that will persist in the northern area of WNC through 10pm or so.  Most of that will fall as snow.  But I don't think it accumulates.  Then the soundings differ.  NAM 3km has a bit more pronounced warm nose at the onset of precipitation early Sunday morning.  HRRR is not as cold, but doesn't have the pronounced warm nose.  I see a couple hours of snow possible early Sunday even for valley locations.  Then a mess will ensue it looks like.  Hoping the HRRR is right and its a bit warmer because ice is not very fun.

What you thinking for places like Marion, seems like we could be in a decent spot 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Yeah that cold air could lock it for a couple more hours. Wouldnt be surprised to see you wake up to a couple of crusty inches Sunday morning.

Thanks Ward, I sure hope so. Short range models seem to be generally trending a bit colder so it will be interesting. I definitely hope we don't get power issues with lots of ice. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

I'm more interested in the nwf behind it.

 

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

I was just looking at the models about that.  The flow looks rather strong and long lived actually.  The cold air behind this system is pretty impressive for what it is. Should have highs in the 20s. Im thinking maybe 3 to 6 inches from that. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the little people!

 

Swain-Haywood-Northern Jackson-Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Waynesville and Tuckasegee
421 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST SUNDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an
  inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Swain, Haywood, Northern Jackson and Southern Jackson
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to noon EST Sun
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like things are going to be a sloppy mess for tonight into tomorrow morning for a lot of the mountains but how long does the cold air hang on and how much is snow or ice will probably be a real time unfolding of things. Anyways it will be fun to watch. 

As for the upslope machine unfolding Sunday night into Monday night, the signal is very strong. This looks to be a very impressive event. Im even seeing were some places could approach a foot of snow according to the GFS. im still going with the 3 to 6 inches but that may need to be upped by tomorrow morning.  Should be our most impressive upslope event of the season. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As Met and others have already mentioned, the NW flow snow looks very robust.  This is the latest GFS 48 percip starting 6z Monday(1am) ending 6z Wednesday (1am) which should encompass the whole NWFS event.   In most of our NWFS events the moisture is confined to 850mb and lower.  With this one 700mb (9-10k feet up) moisture is going to be plenty throughout Monday.  Then as the 700mb moisture moves out Monday night, the coldest 850mb temps come in with plenty of 850mb moisture around to keep this thing going well into Tuesday.

The GFS precip map has only been increasing each run.  Anything blue or inside the blues is at least 5" of snow.  Like already mentioned this will likely be the best NWFS event this season and I would expect 6-12" to be common above 4k feet.

 

 

gfs-deterministic-carolinas-precip_48hr_inch-2332000.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

As Met and others have already mentioned, the NW flow snow looks very robust.  This is the latest GFS 48 percip starting 6z Monday(1am) ending 6z Wednesday (1am) which should encompass the whole NWFS event.   In most of our NWFS events the moisture is confined to 850mb and lower.  With this one 700mb (9-10k feet up) moisture is going to be plenty throughout Monday.  Then as the 700mb moisture moves out Monday night, the coldest 850mb temps come in with plenty of 850mb moisture around to keep this thing going well into Tuesday.

The GFS precip map has only been increasing each run.  Anything blue or inside the blues is at least 5" of snow.  Like already mentioned this will likely be the best NWFS event this season and I would expect 6-12" to be common above 4k feet.

 

 

gfs-deterministic-carolinas-precip_48hr_inch-2332000.png

Spot on Moto. Thats one thing I've been noticing is that the totals on just about all the models are increasing just about each run. This is going to be a very impressive event I think.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Patiently waiting for my mixed bag that will be mostly rain I’m sure :lol:.  Flow setup looks to be great, maybe I can eek out an inch or two depending on the angle (although the strength looks to be that that could happen anyway). Man, STILL waiting to experience a Miller A since moving here.  2 years on the 15th.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...