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2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread


Met1985
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Yeah the issue I have is the inconsistency of the models. Usually they will latch onto something and stick with that. Maybe today is that day but the NAM has been consistently good for us but I dont want to just take the best look for us and say thats what its going to do. Hopefully we will see some kind of agreement today.

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Just now, Met1985 said:

Im suspect anytime a models spits out huge numbers like that.  Shoot how many times have we been burnt? I know I sound pessimistic but heck im as excited as yall are but I want to be sure of whats coming.  Again no pipe dreams here only concrete meteorology. 

Agreed. I still think a 4-6 call is solid for most. Hell, I am most excited about just watching it fall during the day. Going to be a good one. 

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Just now, Met1985 said:

Im suspect anytime a models spits out huge numbers like that.  Shoot how many times have we been burnt? I know I sound pessimistic but heck im as excited as yall are but I want to be sure of whats coming.  Again no pipe dreams here only concrete meteorology. 

While I agree, there has been a consistent storm signal for WNC. Amounts vary, but accumulating snow has been shown, run after run.......

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Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

While I agree, there has been a consistent storm signal for WNC. Amounts vary, but accumulating snow has been shown, run after run.......

Oh yeah ill agree there is definitely a storm signal especially for us. Its just frustrating to see how the models seem to be struggling with how much and where. Like I said maybe today things get ironed out finally. 

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2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

See this is what I don't understand is some of those holes in the SW mountains should be getting a lot more than it shows.  Maybe something is up with the algorithm but this map looks off to me..

elevation issues and cold air not fully making it to the valley floor. I'd be surprised to see Bryson and the likes pick up more than 1 - 2". It also hurts there position related to upslope/downslope flow off the escarpment and highlands plateau. 

Those valleys are the some of the most sheltered valleys around. Heck, Cullowhee in particular is one of the largest, deepest valleys in the Appalachians, surrounded by 5 - 6k foot ridgelines on every side but a sliver going through Sylva. 

For Haywood, the northern portion the county will not get as much as those south of town going up 215 in the first round but the backend NW flow should make up for this. Maybe another downslope issue? 

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By the way, thanks @Met1985 for being the voice of reason for this event! It's so easy to get excited and your reminders are helpful. 

@BlueRidgeFolklore, your spot is a tough call for us. Sort of a battle ground between elevation and higher precip rates. Are you up 276 at all (above the town's elevation of 2100')? 

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4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

See this is what I don't understand is some of those holes in the SW mountains should be getting a lot more than it shows.  Maybe something is up with the algorithm but this map looks off to me..

Not if this becomes a predominantly upslope/downslope compounded event. Not much different than we see with NWF and snow holes on the leeward side of the of the TN/NC line. I expect the southern escarpment and the higher peaks to wring out the most moisture, and for there to be some lower totals within.

I think some of the blue in Haywood County is due to downsloping from the Balsams from a storm of this setup. 

We shall see but I don't see anything inherently glaring from the 3k map that says we should toss. I am not expecting a foot of snow in those favored areas, but I do think they are favored areas.

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4 minutes ago, Local Yokel Wx said:

 

@BlueRidgeFolklore, your spot is a tough call for us. Sort of a battle ground between elevation and higher precip rates. Are you up 276 at all (above the town's elevation of 2100')? 

No I am not, that is all public land up 276 from my side of the Parkway. I haven't seen anything in the models to indicate that moisture or temp will be an issue in Transylvania. Obviously being higher helps. My expectations are not on the totals the models are spitting out but I do fully expect accumulating snow as the signal on the models is too strong to expect otherwise. The 64 corridor from Highlands to Hendersonville has consistently been shown as a good spot for this storm.

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4 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

No I am not, that is all public land up 276 from my side of the Parkway. I haven't seen anything in the models to indicate that moisture or temp will be an issue in Transylvania. Obviously being higher helps. My expectations are not on the totals the models are spitting out but I do fully expect accumulating snow as the signal on the models is too strong to expect otherwise. The 64 corridor from Highlands to Hendersonville has consistently been shown as a good spot for this storm.

How far are you from where 281 forks in little Canada?

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Looking at the Kuchera ratio is more realistic and personally, I feel is still too high, but I think the areas shown are the favored areas.

Red circle is the highest elevation along the southern escarpment and will wring out plenty of moisture. Green circles on the map are the French Broad River Valley and the Pigeon River Gorge. Asheville is notorious for being a victim of downsloping in this setup. It's the same reason why it tends to be the driest area in NC and Transylvania county the wettest. Those Balsam Mountains are just a bear to overcome. 

image.png.a41a8e78f52456cde960e6795bed5bb0.png

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Morning folks, I’m still liking this set up for you. As always there’s the winners & losers aspect to it. Sometimes it helps to read different discos besides GSP. I’m not going to clog the thread with a giant copy & paste but if you have a minute, read MOB’s overnight and you’ll get a good idea of the downstream side of the system and what’s feeding your areas. Good luck to all!


.

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My area (Cruso/South Haywood) looks like it might do pretty well here.  Maybe I won't be so envious of the Northern part of the county this time :)  Its interesting - this is teaching me a little about the type of setup that works for where I am.

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2 minutes ago, natbright said:

My area (Cruso/South Haywood) looks like it might do pretty well here.  Maybe I won't be so envious of the Northern part of the county this time :)  Its interesting - this is teaching me a little about the type of setup that works for where I am.

Nice to have another Haywood resident on here and yes I agree usually from central to southern Haywood does great in these type situations thats why I dont understand the snow hole that is being shown on some of the models.  But non the less im going with my gut feeling and just knowing these mountains a lot better than some model...

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Hey y’all! I’m pondering chasing this storm up in the southern mountains somewhere. Probably somewhere on the 64 corridor

Look at one of these -

cashiers- lake toxaway - brevard- Hendersonville 

Thought I would turn to the local experts. Any advice in places that usually do good in these type of set ups? 

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