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2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread


Met1985
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14 minutes ago, Local Yokel Wx said:

We'll see and pick up snow Thursday afternoon/overnight but the temps on Christmas Day will be brutal (not end of the world cold, but our first real slap in the face cold for the season). Our first foray into single digits territory is likely for our higher elevation folks. 

Yep thinking the same thing. This will be colder than just about anything we saw last year.

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Nice model spread regarding snowfall on the overnight models. Euro with the lowest for KAVL at 1” with GFS being the higher end 3”+. I hate forecasting these type fronts, but it seems the changeover could happen just as the sun is setting on Christmas Eve night. Timing is going to be key, and whatever falls will be on the ground for Christmas morning IMO.

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5 hours ago, Hvward said:

Nice model spread regarding snowfall on the overnight models. Euro with the lowest for KAVL at 1” with GFS being the higher end 3”+. I hate forecasting these type fronts, but it seems the changeover could happen just as the sun is setting on Christmas Eve night. Timing is going to be key, and whatever falls will be on the ground for Christmas morning IMO.

I second that notion (motion). All those in favor say aye... 

 

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Ill tell you one thing. No matter how much snow we get its going to be brutally cold. I venture to say we could have highs around 10 and possibly lows around zero.  My high for Friday is down to 18.... I love it.
I was just about to say the same thing. Wind and snow Friday and a high of 14° for me. Ouch. I may wait to venture up top until Saturday.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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6 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

It should be an interesting 24 hours in model world as they attempt to resolve this complicated mess. I am a bit concerned about flash freezing as temperatures rapidly crash all the way to the Valley floor Thursday afternoon/evening. My hunch is we may see a couple of hours of heavier rates Thursday evening with a lull late night before NWFS develops into Christmas morning. Perhaps another round of heavier snow showers Christmas Day as the cold upper trough with some vort action moves across the Mountains.  The meso guidance should be interesting to monitor on Thursday. 

we plan on a drive to Banner Elk or so.

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4 hours ago, eyewall said:

I am wondering if there will still be any snow falling up there on Christmas morning. Either way it would be nice to see some on the ground.

I would say probably. Looks like there's going to be a pretty decent flow behind this.  I see us having some decent showers all the way to evening. It'll squeeze out every molecule with such a cold air mass. It almost always last longer than what people think or forecast. So come on up! Eat, shop, spend the night, we need the money up here.:)

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35 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

I would say probably. Looks like there's going to be a pretty decent flow behind this.  I see us having some decent showers all the way to evening. It'll squeeze out every molecule with such a cold air mass. It almost always last longer than what people think or forecast. So come on up! Eat, shop, spend the night, we need the money up here.:)

This is an airmass we could see diamond dust falling in. Been awhile since we have seen that.

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This is an airmass we could see diamond dust falling in. Been awhile since we have seen that.

Yeah the dendritic growth zone is going to be between 4500’-7000’ on Xmas Morning. The flow could continue on into the morning on For many. Snow showers will make themselves with the growth zone that low.
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1 hour ago, Hvward said:
2 hours ago, Met1985 said:
This is an airmass we could see diamond dust falling in. Been awhile since we have seen that.

 

Yeah the dendritic growth zone is going to be between 4500’-7000’ on Xmas Morning. The flow could continue on into the morning on For many. Snow showers will make themselves with the growth zone that low.

Was thinking about booking a place in boone but not sure if I should pick there or banner elk for my first snow ❄️ tracking of the year. Does anyone know which is best for nw flow snow ?

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11 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

Was thinking about booking a place in boone but not sure if I should pick there or banner elk for my first snow ❄️ tracking of the year. Does anyone know which is best for nw flow snow ?

Pick a base camp and drive to see the best snow. It varies widely but you don't have to go far wherever you stay. Then, just enjoy the town you're in. 

 

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Several models showing the flow switching from a WNW to a true NW late in the day on Chirstmas with a strong batch of moisture moving off of the Great Lakes.  With temps as cold as they are projected, many will see snow flurries and showers throughout the day on Christmas and into the evening hours.  

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Several models showing the flow switching from a WNW to a true NW late in the day on Chirstmas with a strong batch of moisture moving off of the Great Lakes.  With temps as cold as they are projected, many will see snow flurries and showers throughout the day on Christmas and into the evening hours.  

I see Morristown NWS has already hoisted a Winter Storm Watch on their side of the border. Things are looking up!

 

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER...

NCZ033-048>050-240100-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0002.201224T2100Z-201225T1100Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, and Poplar
1150 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5
inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Avery, Madison, Yancey and Mitchell Counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night.

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