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2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread


Met1985
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4 hours ago, Buckethead said:

This is the first year I've caught the leaf change at Linn Cove even though I've been in WNC for 5 years. I can't believe I've been putting that off.

Just WOW. 5b09e39fa68977c80031d863f9253375.jpgf18502086ef26baa5b6e6af34ef437a7.jpg

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Very nice! I plan on going back Wednesday and I hope that isn't too late there for the absolute peak.

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6 hours ago, eyewall said:

A pair of ground shots from Linn Cove (Again click for the full quality and color):

50472812561_24ca54f952_b.jpg

50472805246_0e348e2eec_b.jpg

My wife and I took a day trip today thanks to your photos. It was a beautiful day and the colors were the best in several years. It was nice to get out of the house for a while.

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Temp down to 35 this morning! This is more like it! The GFS and Euro are worlds apart on the pattern in the mid to long range. Im hedging towards the GFS currently.  It has been steadier than the euro this Fall.
I dropped to 49° just after midnight but have since warmed up to 55°.

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14 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Temp down to 35 this morning! This is more like it! The GFS and Euro are worlds apart on the pattern in the mid to long range. Im hedging towards the GFS currently.  It has been steadier than the euro this Fall.

Agreed. GFS has had a better handle on the Fall pattern this year. With the cool shots we've seen this season, it seems like the Euro has failed to spot them in advance with its modeling. It hasn't been able to see "cold" in the long range.

MJO is currently in Phase 4 (as of 10/12) and then goes to Phase 5 through the next week. Phase 4 is seasonable/up-down, but Phase 5 is decisively cooler than average in the Southeast for this time of year. Phases 7, 8, and 1 are the ones that are a warm pattern for this time of year while Phase 6 is transitional. Perhaps, Euro is thinking we enter into Phase 7 after a week? 

AO/NAO are currently negative and will be for at least the next couple weeks. This supports a cooler pattern as well in our region.

Judah Cohen (in his 10/12 update) stated that the MJO signal would weaken once it entered into Phase 5, and therefore, wouldn't influence the pattern that much. So, AO/NAO would have the main influence out of those two. Given these, his outlook going to 10/27 says that our area will be in a seasonable/cool pattern overall.

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Wind is starting to pick up here. Cold front will move in tonight. Going to be a fantastic leaf looking weekend then who knows. I think we go back to warm to cool, back to warm. Really this is pretty normal for this time of the year. Looks like we will be losing our blocking for a bit which is not good going forward.

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1 hour ago, Buckethead said:

There's some fantasy land eye candy on the 6z GFS around day 12. Maybe 2020 is just crazy enough? Nahhhh...359b93588f4f1aacf683ace9a02fbc67.jpg

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Seems about correct to see the first flakes begin to fly. My wife's birthday is at the end of October and we always find ourselves chasing a few token flakes around that time. These were taken in 2017, which I find similar to 2020. Both were Nina years, both were wet from Summer to Early Fall, both were good color years and both seem to be trending towards a cold ending in October. I am not sure how that fares for winter, I honestly can't remember how the 2017 winter unfolded.

These were taken on October 29th. We started in Bethel, NC and ended up finding snow near Max Patch.

image.png.f6df0048b9349cec556611296d6dd0c9.png

 

image.png.39a9dcecaebf44fe9db7288e963befa8.png

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Seems about correct to see the first flakes begin to fly. My wife's birthday is at the end of October and we always find ourselves chasing a few token flakes around that time. These were taken in 2017, which I find similar to 2020. Both were Nina years, both were wet from Summer to Early Fall, both were good color years and both seem to be trending towards a cold ending in October. I am not sure how that fares for winter, I honestly can't remember how the 2017 winter unfolded.
These were taken on October 29th. We started in Bethel, NC and ended up finding snow near Max Patch.
image.png.f6df0048b9349cec556611296d6dd0c9.png
 
image.png.39a9dcecaebf44fe9db7288e963befa8.png
Yeah, it's totally normal up here in Wolf, but its in the long range and we're supposed to mock fantasy land snowstorms, right?  My tune will change if its still showing up in a week. 

I took this here on 10/29/17.
0a2d56f44c0fe1f4e0d58d18919817cb.jpg

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18 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Yeah, it's totally normal up here in Wolf, but its in the long range and we're supposed to mock fantasy land snowstorms, right?  My tune will change if its still showing up in a week. 

I took this here on 10/29/17.
0a2d56f44c0fe1f4e0d58d18919817cb.jpg

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I’ll leave the mocking to flatlanders, we welcome any blue that wants to show up on a map, no matter how far out. :D

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