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September 2020 temperature forecast contest


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  • Rjay pinned this topic

Table of forecasts September 2020

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

RJay ________________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.0

DonSutherland 1 _____________+1.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.3 ___ +0.2 _ +2.7 _ +3.2

Yoda ________________________ +1.8 _ +1.4 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.1 ___ +2.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.4

hudsonvalley21 _____________ +1.7 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 ___ +0.4 _ +1.9 _ +0.5 ___ +1.1 _ +2.2 _ +2.2

wxallannj ___________________ +1.4 _ +1.7 _ +1.9 ___ --0.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.1 ___ +0.7 _ +2.3 _ +1.6

BKViking ____________________+1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.4 ___ --0.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.2 ___ +2.4 _ +2.6 _ +3.3

___ Consensus ______________ +1.3 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 ___ +0.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.7 ___ +1.1 _ +2.5 _ +2.1

Tom ________________________ +1.1 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.6 _ +1.4 _ +0.4 ___ +1.1 _ +1.9 _ +0.3

RodneyS ____________________ +1.0 _ +1.3 _ +2.0 ___ +1.5 _ +0.1 _ +1.2 ___ +1.4 _ +3.0 _ +3.6

wxdude64 __________________ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.1 ___ --0.4 _ +0.2 _ +1.1 ___ +1.1 _ +2.4 _ +1.9

Roger Smith _________________ +0.8 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 ___ +0.5 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ --0.2

Scotty Lightning _____________ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ --0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

Jakkel Wx ___________________ +0.4 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 ___ --0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 ___ +0.8 _ +2.6 _ +1.4

___ Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

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__ First report on this month's anomalies, trends, and updated seasonal maxima. __

_________________________DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_ATL_IAH _____ DEN_PHX_SEA

_9th ___ (8d) ____________+2.1_+2.6_+1.7 __+2.7_+2.5_+3.9 ____ +1.2_+4.8 _+6.2

_17th __ (16d) __________ +0.7_+0.9_+0.2 __+1.7_+2.7_+3.9 ____ --2.0_+0.9 _+4.5

_24th __(23rd) __________--1.6 _--0.8_--1.5 __+1.0_+0.3_+2.3 ____ +1.3_+2.3_+4.2

 

_9th __ (p15d) ___________+2.5_+2.5_+1.5 __+1.0_+1.5_+2.0 ____--2.5_+1.5 _+5.0

_17th __ (p23d) __________+0.2_+0.3_--0.5 __+2.0_+2.0_+3.0 _____ 0.0_+1.5 _+3.5

 

_9th __ (p25d) ___________+3.0_+3.5_+2.5 __+2.0_+2.0_+2.0 ____ +0.5_+1.5 _+3.0

_9th __ (p30d) ___________+2.5_+3.0_+2.0 __+2.5_+2.5_+2.5 ____ +1.0_+2.0 _+2.5

_17th __ (p30d) __________+0.5_+0.5__0.0 __+2.5_+2.0_+2.5 ____ +1.0_+2.0 _+2.5

_24th __ (p30d) __________ 0.0_+0.5__0.0 __+2.0_+1.0_+2.5 ____ +1.5_+2.5 _+2.5

 

_1st Oct__(30d)__________--0.8_+0.8_+0.7 __+1.7_+0.3_+1.2 ____ +2.0_+3.1 _+4.2

 

Seasonal Max to date ___ 99 __ 96 __ 95 ___ 97 __ 96 __102 ____ 101 _ 118 __ 98

Notes:

9th _ DEN plunged from heat wave (seasonal max increased to 101 5th) to mixed rain/snow on 8th, 1.0" reported on 8th along with 0.72" precip. A small additional amount reported today. Anomaly for the day of -30 on 8th (-29 on 9th) was not quite enough to reverse the sign (the anomaly was about +6 after seven days) but now sitting around -3 after nine days. Other locations have had a less adventurous and mostly warmish start to the month. I experienced all but the mixed rain and snow here, temperature fell from 92 F on 6th to morning low of 33 F on 8th, now back up near 90 F. Bizarre to say the least, plus forest fire smoke advecting in from WA state (otherwise border remains closed). ... Following week looks similar to past 2-3 days in most areas, DEN will gradually flip back to warmth but will retain a negative anomaly likely to at least 20th. Longer term, warmish for most regions, cooling off in Pac NW compared to first half (close to normal), GFS 18z shows major hurricane near east coast US at end of run. (this not a factor in the temperature forecast but implies potential for late month cooler interval to follow its passage)

Just for comparative purposes later, I extended the usual 16-day projection to end of month to see how much that changes by near end of September, based on assumption of persistence of pattern at end of run. RJay will be hoping I'm right (meaning GFS is right) while I will be hoping for a big error. 

Will score the seasonal max forecasts made back in May soon, I would think we're pretty much done increasing although ATL could add a degree or two I suppose.

17th _ Was a day late getting to the update, in any case, things have cooled back towards zero anomalies in the east and recovered at DEN to almost normal again. The rest of the month looks fairly bland in the east, warm in the west although not overly so for SEA. End of month projections can be regarded as rather approximate. When I feel more confident about them, I will post some provisional scoring. Looks like a mixed bag of scores at the moment, but too early to be very certain about trends. 

24th _ Eastern stations had a cool week and have dipped below normal, will probably recover to near normal in a slightly warmer regime. The central and western locations will hold on to their small to medium sized positive anomalies and perhaps build on them slightly. Will follow up with provisional scoring soon. 

1st Oct _ End of month anomalies are now all posted and scoring will be fully updated by 15z.  

 

 

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Seasonal Max contest -- Final results

 

__ error points __ those shown in blue are too low, rest are too high or on the mark (for 0) ...

Seasonal Max to date __ 99 __ 96 __ 95 __ 97 _ 96 _ 102 _101 _118 _ 98

FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS _ORD_ATL_IAH _DEN_PHX_SEA ____ Total

 

RodneyS ________________0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ______ 3 __ 1 _____ __ 0 ________ 17

wxallannj _______________ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ 2 __ 4 _____ __ __ 4 ______ 18

wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 4 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 3 _____ 2 __ __ 2 ______ 20

DonSutherland1 ________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 2 _____ __ 0 __ 4 ______ 21

hudsonvalley21 _________2 ___ 4 ___ 3 ____ 0 __ 5 __ 3 _____ __ 0 __ 3 ______ 23

BKViking _______________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 6 __ 5 __ 1 _____ __ 0 __ 3 ______ 25

Tom ____________________3 ___ 3 ___ 4 ____ 5 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 4 __ 1 __ ______ 30 

Scotty Lightning ________ 3 ___ 6 ___ 4 ____ 1 __ 7 __ 5 _____ 4 __ 1 __ 1 ______ 32

Roger Smith ____________ 3 ___ 4 ___ 6 ____ 2 __ 7 __ 5 _____ 6 __ 2 __ ______ 37

========================================================================

(actual forecasts)

 

Scotty Lightning ________ 102 __ 102 ___ 99 ___ 96 __ 103 __ 107 ___ 97 __ 117 __ 97

Roger Smith ____________ 102 __ 100 __ 101 ___99 __ 103 __ 107 __ 107 __ 120 __ 96

Tom ____________________ 102 ___99 ___ 99 ___102 __ 102 __ 104 ___97 __ 119 __ 96

hudsonvalley21 _________101 __ 100 ___ 98 ___ 97 __ 101 __ 105 ___ 98 __ 118 __ 95

BKViking _______________ 101 ___ 99 ___ 98 __ 103 __ 101 __ 103 ___ 99 __ 118 __ 95

DonSutherland1 ________ 101 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 96 ___ 99 __ 104 ___ 97 __ 118 __ 94

wxdude64 ______________ 100 ___ 99 ___ 99 ___ 98 __ 100 __ 105 __ 103 __ 117 __ 96

RodneyS _________________ 99 ___ 98 ___ 97 ___ 96 ___ 99 __ 103 ___ 98 __ 118 __ 93

wxallannj _________________97 ___ 96 ___ 95 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 98 __ 116 __ 94

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

These results can now be considered final. Congrats to RodneyS and wxallannj for their top scores with wxdude64 and DonSutherland1 also doing well. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Final scoring for September 2020

Scoring is based on end of month anomalies posted in edited previous post (three posts back now).

 

FORECASTER _______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL

 

RodneyS ____________________64 _ 90 _ 74 ___ 228 __ 96 _ 96 _100__ 292 __ 520 __ 88 _ 98 _ 88 __ 274 ____ 794

wxdude64 __________________ 66 _ 96 _ 92 ___ 254 __ 58 _ 98 _ 98 __ 254 __ 508 __ 82 _ 86 _ 54 __ 222 ____ 730

Yoda ________________________48 _ 88 _ 84 ___ 220 __ 76 _ 72 _ 98 __ 246 __ 466 __100_ 92 _ 64 __ 256 ____ 722

BKViking ____________________56 _ 86 _ 86 ___ 228 __ 62 _ 86 _ 80 __ 228 __ 456 __ 92 _ 90 _ 82 __ 264 ____ 720

Jakkel Wx __________________ 76 _ 96 _ 92 ___ 264 __ 60 _ 96 _ 80 __ 236 __ 500 __ 76 _ 90 _ 44 __ 210 ____ 710

___ Consensus ______________58 _ 90 _ 86 ___ 234 __ 70 _ 86 _ 90 __ 246 __ 480 __ 82 _ 88 _ 58 __ 228 ____ 708

 

RJay ________________________34 _ 66 _ 64 ___ 164 __ 96 _ 76 _ 76 __ 248 __ 412 __100_ 98 _ 76 __ 274 ____ 686

Roger Smith ________________ 68 _ 96 _ 94 ___ 258 __ 76 _ 90 _ 92 __ 258 __ 516 __ 90 _ 68 _ 12 __ 170 ____ 686

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 50 _ 90 _ 86 ___ 226 __ 74 _ 68 _ 86 __ 228 __ 454 __ 82 _ 82 _ 60 __ 224 ____ 678

DonSutherland 1 ____________ 48 _ 76 _ 80 ___ 204 __ 66 _ 86 _ 82 __ 234 __ 438 __ 64 _ 92 _ 80 __ 236 ____ 674

Tom ________________________62 _ 96 _ 94 ___ 252 __ 78 _ 78 _ 84 __ 240 __ 492 __ 82 _ 76 _ 22 __ 180 ____ 672

wxallannj ___________________ 56 _ 82 _ 76 ___ 214 __ 54 _ 70 _ 98 __ 222 __ 436 __ 72 _ 84 _ 48 __ 204 ____ 640

Scotty Lightning ____________ 74 94 86 ___ 254 __ 56 _ 86 _ 96 __ 238 __ 492 __ 70 _ 58 _ 16 __ 144 ____ 636

___ Normal _________________ 84 _ 84 _ 86 ___ 254 __ 66 _ 94 _ 76 __ 236 __ 490 __ 60 _ 38 _ 16 __ 114 ____ 604

======================================================================================

Extreme Forecast Report 

DCA (-0.8) finished below all forecasts so Jakkelwx at 0.4 (as well as Normal) scoops an extreme forecast. 

NYC was close but second to fifth coldest forecasts all tied for top score, Scotty Lightning was spared a loss as this was just outside the qualifying zone (if more than two wins against a loss, all ties must be same value, in this case, two different values involved). 

BOS (+0.7) was similar but with second and third coldest forecasts tied for high score, this becomes a loss for Scotty Lightning (and Normal) with low forecasts of 0.0, shared win for Roger Smith (+0.4) and Tom (+1.0). 

ORD (+1.7) was slightly warmer than the tied highest forecasts (RJay, RodneyS both +1.5) giving them an extreme forecast award.

ATL (+0.3) produced a loss for RodneyS (+0.1) and a win for wxdude64 (+0.2). 

IAH (+1.2) was a win for RodneyS (also +1.2) with highest forecast. 

DEN (+2.0) is a shared win for RJay and Yoda (+2.0) and a loss for BKViking at high forecast of +2.4. 

PHX (+3.1) is a shared win for RodneyS and RJay (+3.0) and a loss for Yoda at high forecast of +3.5. 

SEA (+4.2) was always a safe bet for warmest forecast (RodneyS +3.6) to take the award.

================================================================================

Annual Update to follow

 

 

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< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Sep) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > >

Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. 

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

RodneyS ___________________652_ 654_696 __2002 __593 _579_608__1780 __3782 __678_613_572_ 1863 ____5645

 

Don Sutherland.1 ___________580 _636_644 __1860 __515 _610_622 __1747 __3607 __450_578_596_ 1624 ____5231

hudsonvalley21 ____________537 _598 _667 __1802 __466 _576 _639 __1681 __3483 __517_640_563_ 1720 ____5203

RJay _______________________588 _631 _577 __1796 __513 _596 _587 __1696 __3492 __580_548_580_ 1708 ____5200

___ Consensus _____________532 _572 _671 __1775 __444 _583_650 __1677 __3452 __520_633_564_ 1717 ____ 5169

BKViking __________________ 498 _552 _623 __1673 __477 _520 _610__1607 __3280 __547_637_619_ 1803 ____ 5083

wxallannj __________________550 _616 _649 __1815 __394 _565 _654 __1613 __3428 __498_599_546_ 1641 ____5069

Tom _______________________ 538 _572 _640 __1750__386 _624 _599__1609 __3359 __507_619_517_ 1643 ____5002

Scotty Lightning ____________442 _432 _526 __1400 __370 _573_692__1635 __3035 __438_588_582_ 1608 ____ 4643

wxdude64 __________________463 _481 _536 __1480__362 _534 _640__1536 __3016 __ 498_603_446_ 1547 ____4563

Roger Smith ________________446 _481 _578 __1505__396 _599 _554__1549 __3054 __ 540_420_398_ 1358 ____4412

Brian5671 _ (8/9) __________ 494 _502 _526 __1522 __323 _485 _545__1353 __2875 __318_478_542_ 1438 ____ 4313

___ Normal _________________356 _352 _442 __1150 __302 _530 _540__1372 __2522 __370_480_ 542_ 1392 ____3914

JakkelWx _ (7/9) ___________ 380 _395 _514 __1289__370 _405 _532__1317 __2606 __390 _422 _330_ 1142 ____3748

yoda _ (3/9) ________________112 _ 131 _100 __ 343 __ 94_190 _223 __ 507 ___ 850 __ 171 _253_134 __ 558_____1408

rclab _ (1/9) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 ____ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250

dwave _ (1/9) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 ____ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292

Maxim _ (1/9) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 ____ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182

Rhino16 _ (1/9) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 ____ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178

==============================================================================

Extreme forecast standings January to September

64 of 81 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 43 for warmest and 21 for coldest.

FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun __ Jul _ Aug __ Sep _ Standings to date

RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __0-1 _ 4-1 ___13-4

Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- _ ---- ___ 11-2

Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ 4-0 _ 1-0 ___ 11-2

RJay _____________ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 3-0 __ ---- _ 3-0 ___ 10-0

DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __1-0 _ ---- ____ 8-0

Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __1-0 _ 0-1 ____ 4-1

Normal ___________ 1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- _ 0-1 ____ 4-2

Tom ______________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-0 ____ 3-0

RClab _____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 2-0

wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 ____ 2-0

Jakkelwx __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 ____ 2-0

yoda ______________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-1 ____ 2-1

hudsonvalley21 ____ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 1-0

wxallannj __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 1-1

================================================================================

BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to September

Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. 

Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus

achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also.

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months

RodneyS ___________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 3 _____ 4 _ Jan, Feb, May, Sep

DonSutherland.1 ____________1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Mar, Apr

hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

RJay _______________________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 2 _ Jun, Jul

___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

BKViking ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0

wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

Tom ________________________0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Scotty Lightning ____________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 0

wxdude64 __________________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Roger Smith ________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 1 __ Aug

Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0

_____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr

Jakkelwx ___________________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Yoda _______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

 

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