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weatherwiz

Significant Severe Weather Event Possible Thursday, August 27, 2020

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

There is definitely a bias towards the CAPE side since that's the easy one to get over the threshold, but overall it does a fair job for areal coverage. 

yeah that it does 

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25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What do we need for this to crap out?

Lapse rates of like 5 degrees would probably work. Don't think the atmosphere will oblige us. Maybe the warm front gets hung up across NY and never makes it in here...

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Lapse rates of like 5 degrees would probably work. Don't think the atmosphere will oblige us. Maybe the warm front gets hung up across NY and never makes it in here...

Thanks. I’m hating the nam look right now. Praying it’s just the nam doing nam things. 

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44 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thanks. I’m hating the nam look right now. Praying it’s just the nam doing nam things. 

I remember there was a day maybe ten or twelve years ago that looked like a historic NE outbreak. I seem to recall the SPC had a 10 or 15% hatched tornado for us in the outlook. Shear was awesome, instability was sufficient, strong trigger....but we overlooked the lapse rates, which were awful. Lo and behold, whatever updrafts tried to go up were feeble and just got blown over by the shear. Brutal bust, so painful I can't even recall when that day was.

Edit: found it. June 6, 2010. 80 kt jet, 60 kt bulk shear, raging llj, 45% hatched wind, 10% tornado. Epic epic bust.

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24 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I remember there was a day maybe ten or twelve years ago that looked like a historic NE outbreak. I seem to recall the SPC had a 10 or 15% hatched tornado for us in the outlook. Shear was awesome, instability was sufficient, strong trigger....but we overlooked the lapse rates, which were awful. Lo and behold, whatever updrafts tried to go up were feeble and just got blown over by the shear. Brutal bust, so painful I can't even recall when that day was.

Edit: found it. June 6, 2010. 80 kt jet, 60 kt bulk shear, raging llj, 45% hatched wind, 10% tornado. Epic epic bust.

Bust in the TOR department but there were several microbursts. Lapse rates were forecast to be pretty good actually but AM crap sort of weakened them. Never did generate a good amount of MLCAPE and shear was just too much for the updrafts and that hurt convection from becoming deep

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Hopefully the NAM is wrong and other CAMs like Href are right getting the front to the pike ,but  It certainly could be. It gets bd happy . My gut says far SW CT and SE NY state . We may get Steined again. We’ll aee

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So other CAMs too far north with front to pike to Pvd?

There are a couple that generate stuff over you. I'm just not sure there is enough destabilization in time. HREF looks like lower Hudson valley into SW CT not far from HFD. 

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Today is just going to be a question of instability I think. I do think we'll get the warm front into CT and probably very close to Hartford. We're talking about effective bulk shear values approaching 60 knots with effective helicity values of 300 m2s2...if we push MLCAPE ~2,000+ J/KG (which is possible) there is going to be some big time trouble today.

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35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There are a couple that generate stuff over you. I'm just not sure there is enough destabilization in time. HREF looks like lower Hudson valley into SW CT not far from HFD. 

I’m wondering if it even rains much 

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