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September 2020 Discussion


moneypitmike
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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Suckerhole. Point is it’s wet for the region as a whole.

E49B69D4-431F-4E25-816D-48E6849A4844.jpeg

I agree someone in the northeast gets a couple inches of rain. To me the best bet for that is NE Pa to VT and probably NJ/ NYC. Scooter has a rule about widespread qpf in warm months .Heavy qpf  ends up much less widespread than modeled. Convection robs moisture transport. I still believe many of us see under .75 for the week 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I agree someone in the northeast gets a couple inches of rain. To me the best bet for that is NE Pa to VT and probably NJ/ NYC. Scooter has a rule about widespread qpf in warm months .Heavy qpf  ends up much less widespread than modeled. Convection robs moisture transport. I still believe many of us see under .75 for the week 

This is more of a colder season pattern with a deep trough to the west. I don't think that rule applies. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

This is more of a colder season pattern with a deep trough to the west. I don't think that rule applies. 

 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Might be a sneaky band in ctrl and ern areas Monday too. In any case, the next two weeks offer several chances it seems. Stein is dead after mid week.

Stein will go down like a cold frosty beer.  This ain’t your summertime blues pattern.

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I agree someone in the northeast gets a couple inches of rain. To me the best bet for that is NE Pa to VT and probably NJ/ NYC. Scooter has a rule about widespread qpf in warm months .Heavy qpf  ends up much less widespread than modeled. Convection robs moisture transport. I still believe many of us see under .75 for the week 

What constitutes 'warm months"?  End of Sept/Early October? 

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12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

-2.8 on the month now after yesterday’s +7.  We are going to eat into that pretty good but I bet we can get a BN September for the first time in a while.

Was -2.7 after last Tuesday, 3 straight AN days have cut that to -1.8.  Would need to average +9 these last 5 days to avoid the month being BN.  Could be close but I think we end up about -0.5, essentially average.  Mid 40s this morning so today should be +5-6.

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I agree someone in the northeast gets a couple inches of rain. To me the best bet for that is NE Pa to VT and probably NJ/ NYC. Scooter has a rule about widespread qpf in warm months .Heavy qpf  ends up much less widespread than modeled. Convection robs moisture transport. I still believe many of us see under .75 for the week 

 

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is more of a colder season pattern with a deep trough to the west. I don't think that rule applies

 

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a warm , humid air mass. It’s a warm system. To me it does apply 

 

Kevin arguing Scooter on the application of Scooter's rule.  Classic.

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4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Was -2.7 after last Tuesday, 3 straight AN days have cut that to -1.8.  Would need to average +9 these last 5 days to avoid the month being BN.  Could be close but I think we end up about -0.5, essentially average.  Mid 40s this morning so today should be +5-6.

Basically neutral departure here now.

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3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

 

 

Kevin arguing Scooter on the application of Scooter's rule.  Classic.

It’s not really a rule. It’s one of those things that when you have a lack of good forcing and a blob of convection modeled, you tend to have less moisture downwind of this and the heavier rain will end up more east and south. It’s more for those MCS type deals moving to the ESE. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not really a rule. It’s one of those things that when you have a lack of good forcing and a blob of convection modeled, you tend to have less moisture downwind of this and the heavier rain will end up more east and south. It’s more for those MCS type deals moving to the ESE. 

Someone else had called it a rule.  :)

Either way, lets get the show on the road for winter qpf discussions.

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

2 weeks and a day since even a trace here

We definitely had some rain showers in the area last week that had actual drop of rain falling from the sky (not enough to even wet the pavement), but otherwise we've had several of these mist events that triggered a T at PWM. Otherwise we're at two weeks without measurable.

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Face timed with our daughter last night.   She stated colors are fabulous up there.   I’ll be in NH next weekend for our annual men’s weekend (45 years and running!).   We’ll head up to VT late week-around the 7-8th depending on my wife’s work schedule...

Seasons changing-but for now back to shorts.

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