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September 2020 Discussion


moneypitmike
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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

A woman drowned Saturday on Flagstaff Lake, recovery only yesterday afternoon.  Three people and a dog motoring their canoe back to their campsite from visiting an island, water got rough as the campsite was on a lee shore and they capsized.  PFDs in the canoe but no one wearing.  The 2 men each grabbed one that was floating nearby but the woman, 31 yo, headed for shore without.  The lake is about 18 miles long so it doesn't take a whole lot of wind to build up the surf.

There's a place in upstate New York that has a similar falls, they have a sign, don't swim, people have drowned due to the undercurrent, yet every year some dumb ass jumps in and drowns, I forget the number of people but it was quite a lot, mostly college kids, it was a college town.

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7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

There's a place in upstate New York that has a similar falls, they have a sign, don't swim, people have drowned due to the undercurrent, yet every year some dumb ass jumps in and drowns, I forget the number of people but it was quite a lot, mostly college kids, it was a college town.

The narrow chasms are so dangerous... if you fall in, slip or trip, it’s game over.  First you have to survive the the initial fall but then hydraulics pin you underwater against rock walls... just terrifying.

Huntington Gorge over in Richmond VT is notorious too as they have a plaque that is now double sided with names of people who have died there.  Even State Police dive team members have died trying to pull other bodies out...really awful stuff.  

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GEFS will run to 35 days out at 00z. That will take forever though. Someone correct me if I am wrong, but I do think this new GEFS won't finish as early as it used to despite starting earlier. The stats do show an improvement and it would be nice for the GEFS to be more competitive with the EPS.  I have not been impressed at all with both the euro op and ensemble this summer. 

It starts an hour earlier about 15 minutes after the Op starts, but will end an hour later. So 3 hours for a full 15 day cycle.

Days 16-35 are only with the 0z run, but will not be created until 21 hours later. Finishing around 2z of the next day


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25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Driest summer on record in N CT / BDL . I recall a few tstorms in E MA and NH/VT that dropped that amount in 2 hours. This is 1960’s redux 

 

That's pretty impressive.

All the other years are grouped pretty closely but this summer has #2 beat by like 2/3rds of an inch.

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Thing is I’ve noticed the operational GFS has a propensity to lower heights too much on the polar side of the westerlies jet. Cyclonic nodes (hypsometric ) get as deep as 6 to even 10dm too deep in those cores by D7 upon every run. 

It’s causing an interesting error complexion. In one sense ... the velocities are speeding up; that much is empirical. But the GFS bias is causing it to also speed the flow up because of its own total gradient integral. 

So it’s adding too much velocity to a speeding up flow. I know this is true purely by nerdy observation focus .. But it nicely accounts for a fairly coherent progressive/stretching the GFS does with its wave handling in the mid and extended range. 

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13 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

There's a place in upstate New York that has a similar falls, they have a sign, don't swim, people have drowned due to the undercurrent, yet every year some dumb ass jumps in and drowns, I forget the number of people but it was quite a lot, mostly college kids, it was a college town.

Ithaca,NY.  Taghannock Falls

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There's a couple of really nice stretches of color right now on 93 north, north of CON. Especially around the Northfield rest area and a bit before exit 19. It was pretty impressive on my ride home last night. I feel like it usually looks like this around the first week of October.

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Just now, rclab said:

Some of us play chess with it daily and try to stay one pawn ahead. The stone fence in the photo, do you know how far back it goes? As always .....

That borders the periphery of the backyard/ woods. It’s kind of a diagonal line that stretches from the woods up to behind the house. There’s a public hiking trail way back in the woods that goes for many miles thru the woods in town 

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