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September 2020 Discussion


moneypitmike
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20 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

You have an alarm whenever somebody posts anything that is contrary to your absolute furnace call? lol. 

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I love that -7 up in the Canadian hinterlands.

Meanwhile, my last weekend in ORH.  Movers come on Monday and I head up to Pit 2 for 10 days before closing on a new Pit1 (Westborough).  I'm moving in the wrong direction for snow.  May as well bit the bullet and head to Savannah.

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2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

I love that -7 up in the Canadian hinterlands.

Meanwhile, my last weekend in ORH.  Movers come on Monday and I head up to Pit 2 for 10 days before closing on a new Pit1 (Westborough).  I'm moving in the wrong direction for snow.  May as well bit the bullet and head to Savannah.

What happened to Princeton? Have fun with traffic in metrowest I moved out here to escape it lol. 

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3 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

I love that -7 up in the Canadian hinterlands.

Meanwhile, my last weekend in ORH.  Movers come on Monday and I head up to Pit 2 for 10 days before closing on a new Pit1 (Westborough).  I'm moving in the wrong direction for snow.  May as well bit the bullet and head to Savannah.

what are you thinking? Westborough? Enjoy the traffic 

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21 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Giggidy lust and all,You try too hard. No one said it wasn't going to get warm for a couple of days but those calling for an absolute furnace are hyping something that is not what modeling is showing 

 

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Yup. And Tip, it's easier for a weather simpleton like me to see patterns like model bias (e.g., Euro over does warmth in the 5-7 day ranges and has a tendency to develop winter systems further west 3-4 days out) than conduct double secret probation ensemble math. 

 

Anyway, nice cool week to start the month. I still wouldn't be surprised to see BDL finish with 40 or even 41 days at 90*, always a few hot ones in September. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Whineminster said:

What happened to Princeton? Have fun with traffic in metrowest I moved out here to escape it lol. 

 

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

what are you thinking? Westborough? Enjoy the traffic 

 

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

MPM moves around more than pickles and he’s a traveling gigolo. 

My wife and daughter won out re: Princeton.  FWIW, Westborough is Worcester County, so now metrowest.  :)  No more snow for me though, even if I am in the high point of town.

As far as traffic,  I work from home and my wife reverse commutes to Worcester, so traffic won't really be an issue.

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4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He used to travel often for ‘work’ too and now he ‘works from home’. I know a few people like that... he fits the profile. 

lol.  I've worked from home for 16 of the last 18 years.  Pre-coronavirus, that involved frequent travel for sales/consulting.  Like most everyone else, thatd's all being done remotely.  I'm eager to get back to face-to-face conversations.  Much more impactful. 

Weird having 'no status' for flying.  I guess few people will for a while.

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Might have to watch southern areas later Tuesday and Wednesday for rain, but that looks south at the moment. Otherwise Thursday and Friday are toasty. Cool down Labor Day weekend and then warm Labor Day.

After, an extremely deep trough is modeled to dive into Midwest. We then wait to see what pops in the tropics. 

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Fairly seasonable week up here. Warm days and cool nights to start the week. GFS and euro have some rain up here Thu with the WAA so we’ll see how that plays out. It’ll probably end up being well into the 80s even up here. Then it comes down to the FROPA and CAA timing Friday. Right now it looks like a COC day up here with falling 850s and 70s although it could be in the 80s if the front slows. With the frequent cold fronts now we start running the risk of turning these 1-2 days torches in to wet CAD days and then we pull a couple of COC days behind it with W-NW flow. So the warm colors aloft won’t always be translating to the sfc up here. BDL will probably pull 90° Thu and Fri though.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Fairly seasonable week up here. Warm days and cool nights to start the week. GFS and euro have some rain up here Thu with the WAA so we’ll see how that plays out. It’ll probably end up being well into the 80s even up here. Then it comes down to the FROPA and CAA timing Friday. Right now it looks like a COC day up here with falling 850s and 70s although it could be in the 80s if the front slows. With the frequent cold fronts now we start running the risk of turning these 1-2 days torches in to wet CAD days and then we pull a couple of COC days behind it with W-NW flow. So the warm colors aloft won’t always be translating to the sfc up here. BDL will probably pull 90° Thu and Fri though.

Pretty typical after the back is broken. We have had some brutal first weeks of September, this is not

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

To the Knowledgeable folks, do  those ensemble  Ginxy charts significantly mute  a  temp anomaly once you get out past 5 days and especially the further out you go bc they weigh climatology 

They would mute any extreme anomaly because of the nature of ensembles. They don’t use climo to mute it, it would be due to varying solutions that can start to mute a signal one way or another.  For instance 30 members may show a cold front staying west with warm 850 temps, but then another 20 members bring the front east and show rain and cooler temps. That’s how to dumb down a signal. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

They would mute any extreme anomaly because of the nature of ensembles. They don’t use climo to mute it, it would be due to varying solutions that can start to mute a signal one way or another.  For instance 30 members may show a cold front staying west with warm 850 temps, but then another 20 members bring the front east and show rain and cooler temps. That’s how to dumb down a signal. 

Understood , thank you 

better than I thought then 

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They would mute any extreme anomaly because of the nature of ensembles. They don’t use climo to mute it, it would be due to varying solutions that can start to mute a signal one way or another.  For instance 30 members may show a cold front staying west with warm 850 temps, but then another 20 members bring the front east and show rain and cooler temps. That’s how to dumb down a signal. 

That’ll get the cane up the coast with the block to the NE. Nowhere to shoot except straight north up the fanny 

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