Tropical connection NYC forum area Fri-Sun 8/28-30/20

[gravitylover]

.27 on the day and it looks like I'll split the goalposts on the line sinking south so that's probably it. With the rain at the beginning of the week I barely broke 1". Heckuva way to break an 11 week drought.

[weathermedic]

42 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

This line is putting out a lot of lightning right now as it comes out of the Poconos.  It is producing 2-4 strikes per second according to my Tempest.

That entire line coming into western NJ is severe warned. Let’s see if it can maintain as it heads east 

[Will - Rutgers]

well these squall lines look like nice consolation prizes if Middlesex County doesn't get a 7-10 split.

and i imagine there's a real nice air change behind them, so if nothing else i just want this swamp air to clear out.

[winterwx21]

17 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

That entire line coming into western NJ is severe warned. Let’s see if it can maintain as it heads east 

The problem is the line is heading ESE. So even if it holds together, it will likely miss NYC to the south.

 

All I had here today was sprinkles. The heavy rain event from the remnants of Laura was a bust, but for a few days there certainly were signs that the worst of it would miss to the south. Not a huge suprise that we got nothing.

[Will - Rutgers]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

The problem is the line is heading ESE. So even if it holds together, it will likely miss NYC to the south.

 

All I had here today was sprinkles. The heavy rain event from the remnants of Laura was a bust, but for a few days there certainly were signs that the worst of it would miss to the south. Not a huge suprise that we got nothing.

for all the potential this week was enormously disappointing.

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said:

for all the potential this week was enormously disappointing.

That's true. Even though there were signs that the worst of it would miss to the south, northern NJ to NYC was at least supposed to see some scattered downpours today. At least we had that nice storm the other night. It was cool seeing the heavy rain blow sideways with that strong north wind from that storm.

[gravitylover]

It didn't miss completely,  I got another .04 bringing it to .31 for the day. Weekly total of 1.14", add that to the inch and a half the week before and I'm just over 7" since the end of May. Soil moisture is good the first few inches but rock hard and dry below that. 

[wdrag]

So in summary, I'm pretty sure tropical moisture made it at least into the extreme southern part of our NYC forum, per attached radar and CoCoRAHS rainfall Fri-Sat (3"+ extreme south part). The EC and UK were far too strong on the remnant Laura holding together across the Apps and may have contributed to some of the high bias in forecasting the resultant rainfall (disappointment for many of us I78 northward).

Our part of Wantage NJ had less than 1/2", even including the 27th!

I do think it was worthwhile to follow Laura's potential impact on our area, appreciating model guidance in its various deficiencies and strengths. We do know there were flood warnings near PHL and in the Delmarva for this storm...fairly close but not close enough. 

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