Major Hurricane Laura

[friedmators]

At 1005 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located 12 miles southeast of Rockefeller Wildlife
  Range, moving northwest at 85 mph.

[mempho]

Strongest wording I've ever heard

Key Messages:1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves willcause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, toIntracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediatecoastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several daysafter the storm.

Katrina - New Orleans WFO- Sunday AFD???

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[cheese007]

Reed and Brad seem like they're in really dicey spots. Hope they get to some higher ground soon 

[jojo762]

AF300 hasn't reported any data since 0250z... :-/

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Is I-10 Closed, I wouldn't be shocked if Josh tries to move east now from Sulphur, he said he would be monitoring path closely

[JasonOH]

Just now, jojo762 said:

AF300 hasn't reported any data since 0250z... :-/

You jinxed it into existence. Data just came in.

[Jackstraw]

Jesus, Lauras on some kind of Jerry Springer show around here.  This is ridiculous.  I forecasted a Cohen Brothers movie a week ago but this is pathetic..

[the ghost of leroy]

1 minute ago, cheese007 said:

Reed and Brad seem like they're in really dicey spots. Hope they get to some higher ground soon 

streams should get better as lake charles gets into these nasty bands

[jm1220]

I wonder in storms like this if it’s a gradual ramp up from TS type winds 50-70 mph to the strong hurricane winds, or if it’s a very sudden increase in the eyewall. You see those TS and Hurricane wind swaths and wonder how fast it really worsens. Eyewall should be onshore in an hour or so. 

[Bostonseminole]

Jeff's broadcasts are always good and lively

[Krisnic225]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is 1-10 Closed, I wouldn't be shocked if Josh tries to move east now from Sulphur, he said he would be monitoring path closely

The governor closed it at the border 

[cheese007]

Looks like this thing is gonna be a prolific tornado producer 

[Moderately Unstable]

Few quick thoughts...

 

1) Comments about splitting hairs. This is a WEATHER website. To talk about the details. If we were interested in the big picture, that is, large destructive hurricane, and DID NOT care about comparing it to other storms, combing through models, wondering about this or that mesovortex, we could read NOAAs discussion or follow TWC and go on our merry way. This is a weather weenie website primarily, to discuss the details. If not here, there is no place else. That said, there is intelligent banter, and, creative banter. Throwing stuff out because you know some big words but don't know how they fit together, isn't helpful. 

 

2) People DO see what they want to see. Some mets and folks want a weak storm. No one "wants" a strong storm, but, on some visceral level, again, no one would be here if it was a clear sunny day. Rocket scientists like big rockets. Astronomers like big telescopes. Meteorology folks are interested by severe events. The more severe, the more they're interested. That's human psychology. Everyone, deep down, looks at that car crash when they pass, trying to get a view and slowing everyone else down. Same with storms. The sheer power and awe that that causes in humans is why human's always pay attention to "bad" events. News events are the same way. Boring? bleh. Major? Bring on the carnage, where's the popcorn. Humans are a fairly savage species, and beneath all of the pleasant "oh good golly gosh I sure do hope this all goes away", when no one looks, most watch the damage, whatever that damage is. Reality shows are a giant hit for a reason. I'm not saying that to justify the behavior, but when you see people in the forum foaming over these details...that's why. Good or bad. It is human.

3) The eyewall is likely undergoing, or was trying to undergo elements of a replacement cycle. This is easy to spot. There was (until recently) a lot of lightning around the eyewall, which is a hallmark of eyewall replacement cycles. Most hurricanes do not have much lightning surrounding the eye. It is in the outer bands. Lightning around the eye, with deformation of the eye's axis, indicate instability of the eye, and possible initiation of a replacement, which seems to have started around 1.5 hours-2 hours ago. Lightning with no deformation can just indicate an incredibly strong and still strengthening storm. Here we have deformation and lightning...replacement. Almost all major hurricanes of this strength undergo one, particularly when some type of synoptic forcing mechanism is present and even more particularly after a period of rapid intensification. The degree to which Laura strengthened and the rapidity were both off-the-charts high. That means, an eyewall replacement is likely. However, once one starts, they usually take around 12 hours to complete. Within that time, you have concentric eyewalls. Typically this occurs when the storms surrounding the eye tighten and choke the inner circulation. That was the case earlier, but, for somewhat interesting reasons, a portion of the eye weakened to the south, in effect sort of stopping this "choking" process, BUT also, weakening the eye a bit. This leads to two possible future outcomes, either the eyewall replacement cycle will continue and the storm WILL weaken a bit before landfall, likely at a low end cat 4 strength or in a maximum reduction scenario upper 3...which has been noted by almost every single NHC update...or, the opening will slow down the process, the northern eye will continue to keep itself together and reorganize a tight southern eyewall by landfall, keeping the storm at upper 4 strength. Paradoxically, by having this opening, the storm may actually be stronger than it would otherwise be, if a full replacement cycle were able to occur. In either case, upgrading to cat 5 is highly unlikely. The SFMR winds, do not show continued strengthening, and shear is increasing a bit. This is all offset by stupid warm water temps. That's the story of this year, and it means more storms WILL follow Laura, some likely major. A wave just left Africa today. Hurricanes conceptually exist as a transporter of momentum and heat from the equator (where there is more), to the mid-lats (where there is less). The likely scenario is maintenance of category to landfall. That may disappoint all the carnal folks (see #2) that are wishcasting a cat 5 but that isn't the job of meteorologists. The job is, forecast and accurately describe the weather. Views/dreams/hopes are not relevant to forecasting and delineate the difference between the NWS, and this forum. One thing I do, when I realize I'm looking at a situation with bias in any direction, is I try to first imagine the opposite outcome happening. I want something to go one way, I imagine it does the exact opposite-weather or otherwise. That gets me out of wish mode and into objective mode. I've seen the other side of the coin so I can be more objective. So, folks, imagine for a minute before landfall this downgrades to a high end cat 2. Get out your yay's and oh noes or thank goodnesses or whatever is deep inside of you. Once you do that, come back to looking at the data, and you'll be more objective in figuring this all out. 

 

Cheers,

 

Moderately Unstable

 

[brianc33710]

4 minutes ago, friedmators said:

At 1005 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located 12 miles southeast of Rockefeller Wildlife
  Range, moving northwest at 85 mph.

OK. So I wasn't completely crazy when I wrote 80 earlier. Thank you for backing me up ! 

[Uncle Bobby]

8 minutes ago, mempho said:

Katrina - New Orleans WFO- Sunday AFD???

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005     ..DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED       HURRICANE KATRINA  A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED  STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.     MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT  LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL  FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY  DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.    THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.  PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD  FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE  BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME  WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.    HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A  FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.    AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH  AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY  VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE  ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE  WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.    POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN  AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING  INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.    THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY  THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW  CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE  KILLED.    AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE  CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.    ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE  OUTSIDE!    MSZ080>082-282100-  HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-  1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Few quick thoughts...

 

1) Comments about splitting hairs. This is a WEATHER website. To talk about the details. If we were interested in the big picture, that is, large destructive hurricane, and DID NOT care about comparing it to other storms, combing through models, wondering about this or that mesovortex, we could read NOAAs discussion or follow TWC and go on our merry way. This is a weather weenie website primarily, to discuss the details. If not here, there is no place else. That said, there is intelligent banter, and, creative banter. Throwing stuff out because you know some big words but don't know how they fit together, isn't helpful. 

 

2) People DO see what they want to see. Some mets and folks want a weak storm. No one "wants" a strong storm, but, on some visceral level, again, no one would be here if it was a clear sunny day. Rocket scientists like big rockets. Astronomers like big telescopes. Meteorology folks are interested by severe events. The more severe, the more they're interested. That's human psychology. Everyone, deep down, looks at that car crash when they pass, trying to get a view and slowing everyone else down. Same with storms. The sheer power and awe that that causes in humans

 

@Typhoon Tip changed his screen name lol

[Jackstraw]

2 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Few quick thoughts...

 

1) Comments about splitting hairs. This is a WEATHER website. To talk about the details. If we were interested in the big picture, that is, large destructive hurricane, and DID NOT care about comparing it to other storms, combing through models, wondering about this or that mesovortex, we could read NOAAs discussion or follow TWC and go on our merry way. This is a weather weenie website primarily, to discuss the details. If not here, there is no place else. That said, there is intelligent banter, and, creative banter. Throwing stuff out because you know some big words but don't know how they fit together, isn't helpful. 

 

2) People DO see what they want to see. Some mets and folks want a weak storm. No one "wants" a strong storm, but, on some visceral level, again, no one would be here if it was a clear sunny day. Rocket scientists like big rockets. Astronomers like big telescopes. Meteorology folks are interested by severe events. The more severe, the more they're interested. That's human psychology. Everyone, deep down, looks at that car crash when they pass, trying to get a view and slowing everyone else down. Same with storms. The sheer power and awe that that causes in humans is why human's always pay attention to "bad" events. News events are the same way. Boring? bleh. Major? Bring on the carnage, where's the popcorn. Humans are a fairly savage species, and beneath all of the pleasant "oh good golly gosh I sure do hope this all goes away", when no one looks, most watch the damage, whatever that damage is. Reality shows are a giant hit for a reason. I'm not saying that to justify the behavior, but when you see people in the forum foaming over these details...that's why. Good or bad. It is human.

3) The eyewall is likely undergoing, or was trying to undergo elements of a replacement cycle. This is easy to spot. There was (until recently) a lot of lightning around the eyewall, which is a hallmark of eyewall replacement cycles. Most hurricanes do not have much lightning surrounding the eye. It is in the outer bands. Lightning around the eye, with deformation of the eye's axis, indicate instability of the eye, and possible initiation of a replacement, which seems to have started around 1.5 hours-2 hours ago. Lightning with no deformation can just indicate an incredibly strong and still strengthening storm. Here we have deformation and lightning...replacement. Almost all major hurricanes of this strength undergo one, particularly when some type of synoptic forcing mechanism is present and even more particularly after a period of rapid intensification. The degree to which Laura strengthened and the rapidity were both off-the-charts high. That means, an eyewall replacement is likely. However, once one starts, they usually take around 12 hours to complete. Within that time, you have concentric eyewalls. Typically this occurs when the storms surrounding the eye tighten and choke the inner circulation. That was the case earlier, but, for somewhat interesting reasons, a portion of the eye weakened to the south, in effect sort of stopping this "choking" process, BUT also, weakening the eye a bit. This leads to two possible future outcomes, either the eyewall replacement cycle will continue and the storm WILL weaken a bit before landfall, likely at a low end cat 4 strength or in a maximum reduction scenario upper 3...which has been noted by almost every single NHC update...or, the opening will slow down the process, the northern eye will continue to keep itself together and reorganize a tight southern eyewall by landfall, keeping the storm at upper 4 strength. Paradoxically, by having this opening, the storm may actually be stronger than it would otherwise be, if a full replacement cycle were able to occur. In either case, upgrading to cat 5 is highly unlikely. The SFMR winds, do not show continued strengthening, and shear is increasing a bit. This is all offset by stupid warm water temps. That's the story of this year, and it means more storms WILL follow Laura, some likely major. A wave just left Africa today. Hurricanes conceptually exist as a transporter of momentum and heat from the equator (where there is more), to the mid-lats (where there is less). The likely scenario is maintenance of category to landfall. That may disappoint all the carnal folks (see #2) that are wishcasting a cat 5 but that isn't the job of meteorologists. The job is, forecast and accurately describe the weather. Views/dreams/hopes are not relevant to forecasting and delineate the difference between the NWS, and this forum. One thing I do, when I realize I'm looking at a situation with bias in any direction, is I try to first imagine the opposite outcome happening. I want something to go one way, I imagine it does the exact opposite-weather or otherwise. That gets me out of wish mode and into objective mode. I've seen the other side of the coin so I can be more objective. So, folks, imagine for a minute before landfall this downgrades to a high end cat 2. Get out your yay's and oh noes or thank goodnesses or whatever is deep inside of you. Once you do that, come back to looking at the data, and you'll be more objective in figuring this all out. 

 

Cheers,

 

Moderately Unstable

 

I rest my case I'm outta here lmao

[kayman]

1 minute ago, friedmators said:

At 1005 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located 12 miles southeast of Rockefeller Wildlife
  Range, moving northwest at 85 mph.

That's an insane storm speed.  That is truly a tropical tornado

[kayman]

5 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Looks like this thing is gonna be a prolific tornado producer 

That's what I am suspecting as well

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Typhoon Tip changes his screen name lol

That was too Organized to be John, and no Thesaurus Wizardry. 

[brianc33710]

4 minutes ago, kayman said:

That's an insane storm speed.  That is truly a tropical tornado

Well, when the storm itself is spinning at 150, the outer bands won't waste any time moving either. I saw either 90 or maybe 100 mph 27 April 2011, which will obviously remain historic for its own reasons. 

[Morris]

933mb extrapolated and unflagged 125kts SFMR. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Few quick thoughts...

 

1) Comments about splitting hairs. This is a WEATHER website. To talk about the details. If we were interested in the big picture, that is, large destructive hurricane, and DID NOT care about comparing it to other storms, combing through models, wondering about this or that mesovortex, we could read NOAAs discussion or follow TWC and go on our merry way. This is a weather weenie website primarily, to discuss the details. If not here, there is no place else. That said, there is intelligent banter, and, creative banter. Throwing stuff out because you know some big words but don't know how they fit together, isn't helpful. 

 

2) People DO see what they want to see. Some mets and folks want a weak storm. No one "wants" a strong storm, but, on some visceral level, again, no one would be here if it was a clear sunny day. Rocket scientists like big rockets. Astronomers like big telescopes. Meteorology folks are interested by severe events. The more severe, the more they're interested. That's human psychology. Everyone, deep down, looks at that car crash when they pass, trying to get a view and slowing everyone else down. Same with storms. The sheer power and awe that that causes in humans is why human's always pay attention to "bad" events. News events are the same way. Boring? bleh. Major? Bring on the carnage, where's the popcorn. Humans are a fairly savage species, and beneath all of the pleasant "oh good golly gosh I sure do hope this all goes away", when no one looks, most watch the damage, whatever that damage is. Reality shows are a giant hit for a reason. I'm not saying that to justify the behavior, but when you see people in the forum foaming over these details...that's why. Good or bad. It is human.

3) The eyewall is likely undergoing, or was trying to undergo elements of a replacement cycle. This is easy to spot. There was (until recently) a lot of lightning around the eyewall, which is a hallmark of eyewall replacement cycles. Most hurricanes do not have much lightning surrounding the eye. It is in the outer bands. Lightning around the eye, with deformation of the eye's axis, indicate instability of the eye, and possible initiation of a replacement, which seems to have started around 1.5 hours-2 hours ago. Lightning with no deformation can just indicate an incredibly strong and still strengthening storm. Here we have deformation and lightning...replacement. Almost all major hurricanes of this strength undergo one, particularly when some type of synoptic forcing mechanism is present and even more particularly after a period of rapid intensification. The degree to which Laura strengthened and the rapidity were both off-the-charts high. That means, an eyewall replacement is likely. However, once one starts, they usually take around 12 hours to complete. Within that time, you have concentric eyewalls. Typically this occurs when the storms surrounding the eye tighten and choke the inner circulation. That was the case earlier, but, for somewhat interesting reasons, a portion of the eye weakened to the south, in effect sort of stopping this "choking" process, BUT also, weakening the eye a bit. This leads to two possible future outcomes, either the eyewall replacement cycle will continue and the storm WILL weaken a bit before landfall, likely at a low end cat 4 strength or in a maximum reduction scenario upper 3...which has been noted by almost every single NHC update...or, the opening will slow down the process, the northern eye will continue to keep itself together and reorganize a tight southern eyewall by landfall, keeping the storm at upper 4 strength. Paradoxically, by having this opening, the storm may actually be stronger than it would otherwise be, if a full replacement cycle were able to occur. In either case, upgrading to cat 5 is highly unlikely. The SFMR winds, do not show continued strengthening, and shear is increasing a bit. This is all offset by stupid warm water temps. That's the story of this year, and it means more storms WILL follow Laura, some likely major. A wave just left Africa today. Hurricanes conceptually exist as a transporter of momentum and heat from the equator (where there is more), to the mid-lats (where there is less). The likely scenario is maintenance of category to landfall. That may disappoint all the carnal folks (see #2) that are wishcasting a cat 5 but that isn't the job of meteorologists. The job is, forecast and accurately describe the weather. Views/dreams/hopes are not relevant to forecasting and delineate the difference between the NWS, and this forum. One thing I do, when I realize I'm looking at a situation with bias in any direction, is I try to first imagine the opposite outcome happening. I want something to go one way, I imagine it does the exact opposite-weather or otherwise. That gets me out of wish mode and into objective mode. I've seen the other side of the coin so I can be more objective. So, folks, imagine for a minute before landfall this downgrades to a high end cat 2. Get out your yay's and oh noes or thank goodnesses or whatever is deep inside of you. Once you do that, come back to looking at the data, and you'll be more objective in figuring this all out. 

 

Cheers,

 

Moderately Unstable

 

Post...of the season. Thank you, good sir. I think this should be pinned to every part of this forum! Very well said--God bless!

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, Morris said:

933mb extrapolated and unflagged 125kts SFMR. 

yeah, surprised still dropping.

[Cheeznado]

Saw that 150 people in Cameron parish refused to evacuate, some were riding out the storm in "recreational vehicles". There will quite a few deaths I am afraid....

[jpeters3]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

yeah, surprised still dropping.

Sondes have been consistently showing higher pressures than extrapolations though.  Also, there hasn't been SFMR or a sonde that showed anything higher than 125 kts for a while.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Typhoon Tip changed his screen name lol

Omg I thought the same thing when I saw the length. But this one was way easier to understand and a pleasure to read. Actually it was a very good post imo. 

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, jpeters3 said:

Sondes have been consistently showing higher pressures than extrapolations though.  Also, there hasn't been SFMR or a sonde that showed anything higher than 125 kts for a while.

true, waiting for sonde data

[brianc33710]

16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I wonder in storms like this if it’s a gradual ramp up from TS type winds 50-70 mph to the strong hurricane winds, or if it’s a very sudden increase in the eyewall. You see those TS and Hurricane wind swaths and wonder how fast it really worsens. Eyewall should be onshore in an hour or so. 

The NWS started issuing "Extreme Wind Warnings" not too long ago to warn those in a Hurricane warned area that the worst is about to come ashore. I remember this with Michael. 

[Windspeed]

NHC nailed this. Not to toot their horn but a lot of us, including myself, were leaning west. Even against substantial ensemble modeling that swung west closer to Galveston, they remained on point for SW LA. I was certain earlier that Port Arthur was in trouble. I mean they still are but not with respect to a direct strike. Cameron looks like ground zero and Lake Charles looks to be in trouble.