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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Assured at this point it makes landfall as a strong 4, doesn’t have time to weaken beyond that. And the indications all point toward steady state or even maybe more strengthening. I can’t even imagine the photos we’ll be seeing from SW LA this time tomorrow. 

I’m from Lake Charles, and I can’t even imagine the pictures

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OK well now we have a tornado warning between Cameron & Abbeville, and moving NW at 80 mph on top of that.

EDIT 2, Brownsville, TX NWS office actually issued that warning. I can see/understand why Lake Charles needed outside help here. 

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1 minute ago, Morris said:

SW eyewall dropsonde didn't come in too hot. 

Intensification has stopped, however we are so close to landfall it it unlikely to weaken more than maybe 5 mph or so.

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1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said:

If it were to be upgraded to cat 5(I know purely semantics) it would have to be data from the pass so we shall see. 

I think she has peaked friction from land interactions now but all academic she’s a very strong Cat 4 150 mph and will make landfall as such.

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What is presumably NOAA2's last pass through the storm yielded some odd readings in the western eyewall. Highest FL winds were 101kts with highest SFMR 121kt...

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LAURA CLOSING IN ON THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 93.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

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Hurricane Laura Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Extremely dangerous Laura has the signature of a classic hurricane
on satellite images, with a well-defined eye surrounded by very
deep convection.  There is little evidence of shear, and the
upper-level outflow pattern is extremely well defined, while the
cyclone is over sea surface temperatures near 30 deg C.
Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that Laura continued to strengthen during the
evening.  Using a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed 
surface winds, the intensity estimate is 130 kt for this advisory.  
Since there is now little time remaining for the system over water, 
no significant change in intensity is anticipated until the center 
crosses the coastline.  Laura will weaken rapidly after it begins 
to move over land, but destructive winds should spread well inland, 
more than 100 miles, along its path.  Later in the forecast period, 
the ECMWF and U.K. Met. Office global models indicate some 
baroclinic re-intensification as the remnants of Laura move off the 
U.S. East coast, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.

Laura has begun to turn northward as it moves around the western
side of a subtropical high pressure area, and the initial motion is
about 340/13 kt.  The track forecast is essentially unchanged
from the previous advisories.  The cyclone should move through a
weakness in the ridge and turn to the northeast over the next day
or two.  Then the system should accelerate toward the
east-northeast while embedded in the westerlies.  The official 
track forecast remains close to both the simple and the corrected 
dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA.

Laura is a large hurricane, and users are reminded to not focus on
the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the
hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Hurricane-force winds and
widespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland into portions
of extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected to begin overnight tonight into Thursday from
far eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead
to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall
threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread
northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee
Valleys Friday night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 29.0N  93.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 31.0N  93.7W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
 24H  28/0000Z 33.8N  92.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  28/1200Z 35.6N  91.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  29/0000Z 36.8N  88.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  29/1200Z 37.5N  82.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  30/0000Z 38.5N  75.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/0000Z 45.0N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/0000Z 52.0N  46.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Looks like steady state the rest of the way. 150mph max. Not bad. Took one hell of a trip to get to this point. 

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Strongest wording I've ever heard

Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.
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15 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

OK well now we have a tornado warning between Cameron & Abbeville, and moving NW at 80 mph on top of that.

EDIT 2, Brownsville, TX NWS office actually issued that warning. I can see/understand why Lake Charles needed outside help here. 

I just read the language of the two respective tornado warnings. It says that the storms were moving 65 mph. Regardless those tornadoes are moving quickly to the NW.

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Looks like our rapid intensification finally stopped. 937mb at 150mph was our peak unless this strengthens again which looks unlikely. Most likely will maintain this intensity into landfall. God help those people 

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Looks like our rapid intensification finally stopped. 937mb at 150mph was our peak unless this strengthens again which looks unlikely. Most likely will maintain this intensity into landfall. God help those people 

Looks like NHC went with 939 mb, but I agree that 937 was probably the low point.

Interesting, I'm actually seeing outbound velocities in the western eyewall approach 160 mph per KLCH.  This is comparable to the eastern side, and the strongest winds I have seen there so far.  Seems to coincide with an apparent intensification of the western eyewall in the reflectivity.

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1 minute ago, kayman said:

I just read the language of the two respective tornado warnings. It says that the storms moving 65 mph. Regardless those tornadoes are moving quickly to the NW.

I see that this says 65 now but I  could've sworn I saw 80 in one of the earlier warning wordings. But the one I saw was before 955 too. Maybe the storms slowed down a bit. 

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