• Member Statistics

    16,098
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    shawanta003
    Newest Member
    shawanta003
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Vicious1990 said:

:facepalm:

150 people in Cameron Parish refused to leave, planned to weather #Laura in everything from elevated homes to recreational vehicles. “It’s a very sad situation. We did everything we could to encourage them to leave.”

https://twitter.com/MelindaDeslatte/status/1298802131466674178

Hopefully there's a 3 story concrete structure these people can stay in that doesn't get washed away.... the police department building looks  sturdy.  Maybe a few will survive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WinterWolf said:

So Dr Knabb isn’t an expert in TC’s?  

Did I say that anywhere in the post?  He is not the foremost expert on TCs, and there are plenty of others.  I happen to know many of them.

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, OSUmetstud said:

You're explaing radar attenuation to a meteorologist 

I think we understand that, but given that I showed examples of the same thing with both Michael and Harvey should we not consider the possibility that it is attenuation?

I'm not arguing the souther eyewall isn't weaker....it seems in every one of these storms there is alway a dominant quadrant of the eyewall...but acting like it is an open eye seems rather absurd to my very untrained self.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WhiteoutWX said:

You’re correct here. If it was attenuation the effect would be down radial from both radars, which it clearly isn’t. It’s a real feature of lower reflectivities on the south side of the eyewall. Its clearly not “open”, but it is NOT a radar artifact.

If it isn't Dorian or Michael's eyewall it's just not good enough.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, KPITSnow said:

I think we understand that, but given that I showed examples of the same thing with both Michael and Harvey should we not consider the possibility that it is attenuation?

I'm not arguing the souther eyewall isn't weaker....it seems in every one of these storms there is alway a dominant quadrant of the eyewall...but acting like it is an open eye seems rather absurd to my very untrained self.

I think its weaker and attenuated. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, KPITSnow said:

I think we understand that, but given that I showed examples of the same thing with both Michael and Harvey should we not consider the possibility that it is attenuation?

I'm not arguing the souther eyewall isn't weaker....it seems in every one of these storms there is alway a dominant quadrant of the eyewall...but acting like it is an open eye seems rather absurd to my very untrained self.

The southern eyewall is clearly weaker in this situation (or at least appears weaker) than in the case of Michael's southeastern eyewall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WinterWolf said:

So Dr Knabb isn’t an expert in TC’s?  

He is, but that doesn’t make him exempt from mistakes. I made the same conclusion earlier until @jpeters3 pointed out that the lower returns were in the exact same spot from the Houston radar.  Dr. Knabb is on TV so he may have not had a chance to go around checking radars to double check. Is there attenuation from LCH: yes, but the weakness is also shown by HGX in a beam coming from the west.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Windspeed said:

Still looking impressive even compared to an older colorization...
3bda743e77b8e3fef270ca33381bf643.jpg

Why did they change the colorization again?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even if it isn't an artifact of the radar, this hurricane is showing no signs of weakening.  So you cannot base this just off the radar presentation which does not tell the entire story ever.  IR, recon obs, microwave imagery, and other observational tools are used in combination with the radar to paint the picture of the current intensity of a hurricane as intense as Laura.  These all combined do not support the simple clarity that the radar data is missing or wrong.  The eye wall is present.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Question is how long does the LCH radar keep working/reporting data for? Doubt it stays working if they go through the NE eye wall there as is likely

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That northern eyewall is going to pack quite the punch. Irma had 140+ mph gusts over Big Pine Key, FL in a similar inner core as Laura. Can't even imagine what this will provide. Mesovorticies can really cause a ruckus 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have an opinion.

It isn't strengthening.

It isn't weakening.

It's holding at 130 kt sustained. Near landfall. Which is horrible for Louisiana. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Drummer said:

Some of y’all either need an earlier bedtime or more caffeine.

 

Either way, let’s cut the bullshit.

Yes.  This.  Now.  Thanks.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Basing off of SFMR winds from BOTH planes, Laura has probably finally peaked from a wind prospective. SFMR winds are a tad to significantly lower depending on the quadrant... Only found high-end cat 2 winds in the SW quad... Earlier we were getting Cat 3+ in all quadrants.

Obviously the NE quad is still highly impressive... SFMR were still cat 4 strength, but perhaps down just a tad.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s very possible that there is some truth to both. The southern eyewall could both be weaker than the northern eyewall (common) but also have an even worse radar presentation due to distance and attenuation. I know compromise is crazy talk in 2020 Murica but maybe we could stop with the antagonism. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Rjay said:

People!  There has to be other things to talk about.  

I agree, but every other poster tries to tell me I don't know what I'm talking about after I presented a clearly thought out argument, and it's fairly frustrating.

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thing still looks really dam impressive over the last few frames on satellite. Checking out the eye on WV, dry as a bone. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

The second radar site was to the west.  Almost due west.  I can't believe we are still having this argument.  Nobody has even looked to see where KHGX is.

Definitely north of west.  But it should be enough of an angle to give a somewhat different image.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

The second radar site was to the west.  Almost due west.  I can't believe we are still having this argument.  Nobody has even looked to see where KHGX is.

KHGX is 288° from the center of Laura's eye.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Why did they change the colorization again?

The newer colorization is enhanced and shows differences in the -85°C and colder tops.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would like to take everyone arguing over whether or not the southern eyewall is open or not and put them on the beach at Cameron to see how long they would give a shit.

 

Stop it!

  • Like 10
  • Haha 13

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Assured at this point it makes landfall as a strong 4, doesn’t have time to weaken beyond that. And the indications all point toward steady state or even maybe more strengthening. I can’t even imagine the photos we’ll be seeing from SW LA this time tomorrow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.