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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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4 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Dr. Knabb (former NHC director) just addressed the southern eyewall radar issue... Stated that it likely was not degraded completely, and rather was being blocked by the high-returns from the northern eyewall. Lets let the former NHC director put that argument to bed...

Makes sense to me.

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Oh it's not a perfect circle and has a small imperfection in the wall. Whole thing going to fall apart way some of you guys nitpick things lol. The regular radar in past big storms have showed this too. Looking at satellite Laura still has a lot of cold cloud tops and is about to hit anyway so any weakening would be small. I think it will stay the same til landfall.

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Just now, eduggs said:

Where are the two radar sites located?  Are the images from exactly the same time.  Clearly the southern eyewall has lower intensity precipitation.  But depending on where the radars are located, there could also be some attenuation of the beams.  In one image, it looks like the radar is located almost due north.  In the other, it looks more like to the NNW.  I don't see how there wouldn't be some attenuation due to an intense hurricane eyewall.  But if one radar site is actually located far to the east or west, then maybe you are correct.

second radar is KHGX, which is almost due west.

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I should note: Laura appears to be 150 mph/934 mb which is the exact strength of the 1856 "Last Island" Hurricane.

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Should be reminded with the decent movement speed and strength of Laura, there is going to be some significant inland wind damage, in addition to the extreme surge at the coast.

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JFC. Hurricane debris balls... birds... historical hurricane analysis... tracking hurricanes with a ruler... storm chasers on the beach...

Would be great entertainment... in a banter thread.

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It's not attenuation.  Every who says it is is wrong and I don't give a damn who says it.  The "object" in the eye was probably some clouds with precip, which is not unusual even in a strong hurricane with a well-cleared-out eye, much like scud outside a supercell.  It was over a mile wide, so forget about birds or debris.

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

937.8mb at 40+kts  Yeesh

The argument is somewhat moot, because my speculation that the strengthening would stop was clearly wrong.  

In any case, mark my word, the last words I will utter on my death bed are "It was not attenuation!!!! I swear it!!!"

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Here's a radical idea re: the southern eyewall. It's both a combination of attenuation (from KLCH) and partial degradation (via KHGX). There may be some slight attenuation from KHGX since the southern part of the eye is not perfectly east of it, but the southern eyewall is certainly weaker.

It may not be open, it may not be fully closed, let recon handle that, but it is weaker.

Jesus christ.

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Just now, andyhb said:

Here's a radical idea re: the southern eyewall. It's both a combination of attenuation (from KLCH) and partial degradation (via KHGX). There may be some slight attenuation from KHGX since the southern part of the eye is not perfectly east of it, but the southern eyewall is certainly weaker.

It may not be open, it may not be fully closed, let recon handle that, but it is weaker.

Jesus christ.

No! there is no middle ground ;)

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The cloud tops on the south side are warming a bit. May be related to the convection being less strong on the south side of the eyewall.

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1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

Everyone is speculating, even Rick Knabb.  I'm having a conversation with another professor who is an expert in TCs, and he agrees with my explanation of the phenomena.  I also maintain that nobody has explained why the features shows up in the same spot from two different radars.  I guess we'll see if the VDM contains any remarks.

Because it is likely you have the same problem with both radar sites.  Each site you referenced is either from the NW or NNW or North.  They are trying to dissect a very intense band of northern eye wall convection/precipitation being produced.  The rain is falling so incredibly hard the beam cannot penetrate the band of convection enough to get a sample of the southern portion of the eye and eye wall.

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Just now, Vicious1990 said:

:facepalm:

150 people in Cameron Parish refused to leave, planned to weather #Laura in everything from elevated homes to recreational vehicles. “It’s a very sad situation. We did everything we could to encourage them to leave.”

https://twitter.com/MelindaDeslatte/status/1298802131466674178

Sad to say they're likely not going to live to tell the tail.

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Interesting... Both AF and NOAA planes found ~145 kt FL winds, but strongest SFMR was 127kt... Seems a bit lower than normal.

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1 minute ago, Uncle Bobby said:

It's not attenuation.  Every who says it is is wrong and I don't give a damn who says it.imageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486c  The "object" in the eye was probably some clouds with precip, which is not unusual even in a strong hurricane with a well-cleared-out eye, much like scud outside a supercell.  It was over a mile wide, so forget about birds or debris.

that is not what we are discussing here, it is the appearance of the southern eye wall.  Not the object inside the eye.

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Just now, Natester said:

Sad to say they're likely not going to live to tell the tail.

Yeah and I am sure they misused the word weather in this situation

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Because it is likely you have the same problem with both radar sites.  Each site you referenced is either from the NW or NNW or North.  They are trying to dissect a very intense band of northern eye wall convection/precipitation being produced.  The rain is falling so incredibly hard the beam cannot penetrate the band of convection enough to get a sample of the southern portion of the eye and eye wall.

The second radar site was to the west.  Almost due west.  I can't believe we are still having this argument.  Nobody has even looked to see where KHGX is.

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1 minute ago, dan11295 said:

Should be reminded with the decent movement speed and strength of Laura, there is going to be some significant inland wind damage, in addition to the extreme surge at the coast.

That surge could push up to 50 mi inland due to the swampy & extremely low-lying nature of S LA topography.

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2 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

second radar is KHGX, which is almost due west.

Hmm, I would have guessed the top (first) image.  The presentation just looks a lot like precipitation attenuation.  And it would make sense.  But you make a good point about the different radar sites.

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

The second radar site was to the west.  Almost due west.  I can't believe we are still having this argument.  Nobody has even looked to see where KHGX is.

Yeah we did, even if it is due west, that portion of the eye wall is just as intense, it was not just the northern portion of the eye wall, it was also on the western side.

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1 minute ago, Vicious1990 said:

:facepalm:

150 people in Cameron Parish refused to leave, planned to weather #Laura in everything from elevated homes to recreational vehicles. “It’s a very sad situation. We did everything we could to encourage them to leave.”

https://twitter.com/MelindaDeslatte/status/1298802131466674178

Well, if that's their decision, godspeed to them. Anyone who survives will have one heck of a story.

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5 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Everyone is speculating, even Rick Knabb.  I'm having a conversation with another professor who is an expert in TCs, and he agrees with my explanation of the phenomena.  I also maintain that nobody has explained why the features shows up in the same spot from two different radars.  I guess we'll see if the VDM contains any remarks.

So Dr Knabb isn’t an expert in TC’s?  

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Because it is likely you have the same problem with both radar sites.  Each site you referenced is either from the NW or NNW or North.  They are trying to dissect a very intense band of northern eye wall convection/precipitation being produced.  The rain is falling so incredibly hard the beam cannot penetrate the band of convection enough to get a sample of the southern portion of the eye and eye wall.

You're explaing radar attenuation to a meteorologist 

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21 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

I just thought of something. Could this possibly some type of "debris ball" as Laura goes over all of the oil rigs? I was thinking about her causing damage down there that could take time to repair. Obviously we see debris balls in EF-4&5 tornadoes. 

Actually could be birds caught in the eye of the storm.  Same thing happened in Michael. 

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11 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Explain this to me then.  How does "attenuation" show up in the same location from two completely different vantage points.  From KHGX, it should be on the eastern side, but it shows up on the south?

You’re correct here. If it was attenuation the effect would be down radial from both radars, which it clearly isn’t. It’s a real feature of lower reflectivities on the south side of the eyewall. Its clearly not “open”, but it is NOT a radar artifact.

Also, just because Dr. Knabb was on TV and the director of the NHC does not make him the world wide expert on radar meteorology. 

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