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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

For all you idiots who are acting like I just insulted a member of your family, here is the KHGX view which shows the same structure.

These ignorant comments about radar attenuation need to stop.

 

RADAR.png


I'm not going to argue with you that the southern eyewall is weaker, but saying it has an open eye at this point is pretty silly IMO.

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000
WTNT63 KNHC 270152
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
900 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...900 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported at 
Cypremort Point, Louisiana, on Vermilion Bay.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 93.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Pasch

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Just now, Bostonseminole said:

Geez go take a nap

Do you blame him? He's had to explain himself on the EXACT SAME CONCEPT like 5 times today. I dunno about you, but I'd be pretty pissed if that were me.

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

For all you idiots who are acting like I just insulted a member of your family, here is the KHGX view which shows the same structure.

These ignorant comments about radar attenuation need to stop.

 

 

There are no radar sites to the south of Laura, so the most likely area of obstruction would be the very southern eyewall area.  But regardless, the southern eyewall appears to have lower intensity precipitation compared to other quadrants.

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Re: Southern eyewall...

It was never filled in fully on radar at any point since it came into view several hours ago.

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People are following the high DBZ band and that band only in reflectivity and thinking that the remainder is an open eyewall. It is not. You can see the precipitation field still connected. Again, you do not have to have a 360° azimuth 50 DBZ band to make an intense eyewall.

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Just now, TriPol said:

Nick of time for what? 145 mph winds instead of 155 mph winds? 20 ft surge instead of 25 ft surge?

More like 125 and 15. Not saying this *will* happen for all the pedantic folks out there, but it's on the table 

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

I don’t recall, did Michael have this much lightning in the eyewall region?

Doesn't land interaction usually cause lightning?

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Just now, hlcater said:

Do you blame him? He's had to explain himself on the EXACT SAME CONCEPT like 5 times today. I dunno about you, but I'd be pretty pissed if that were me.

This can be taken to banter if needed, but we know this is an issue with radar in a lot of these powerful storms.

Yes, the southern eyewall may be weaker, but it is NOT an open eye like he is stating.

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Just now, KPITSnow said:

This can be taken to banter if needed, but we know this is an issue with radar in a lot of these powerful storms.

Yes, the southern eyewall may be weaker, but it is NOT an open eye like he is stating.

I dont think it is open in the truest sense either, but I don't know if I'd call that symmetric or even closed either. It's something in between and kind of an odd configuration for such an intense storm.

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I just find it slightly amusing this bickering about whether the eyewall is open or closed (I agree there is some obvious recent deterioration) when this storm is 6 hours from landfall...it's not going to make a difference in terms of practical intensity and impacts and certainly it's far too late to prevent the pressure-driven surge of water already moving onshore...

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33 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

What is this???

Image_8-26-20_at_6.23_PM.jpg

I just thought of something. Could this possibly some type of "debris ball" as Laura goes over all of the oil rigs? I was thinking about her causing damage down there that could take time to repair. Obviously we see debris balls in EF-4&5 tornadoes. 

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Just now, Windspeed said:

People are following the high DBZ band and that band only in reflectivity and thinking that is an open eyewall. It is not. You can see the precipitation field still connected. Again, you do not have to have a 360° azimuth 50 DBZ band to make an intense eyewall.

There are clearly several regions on the south end where echoes drop below 20 dBz though.  So the intense eyewall convection is fairly degraded down there.  I'm not saying that recon will find this region completely devoid of convection and bright moonlight shining in, and these asymmetric eyewall structures are somewhat common in event intense hurricanes.  All i'm saying is that this may but a damper on continued strengthening.  But this seemed to have ignited a massive controversy.

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1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

Hurricanetrack.com has a few cams set up

Aren't they paid though? 

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1 minute ago, hlcater said:

I dont think it is open in the truest sense either, but I don't know if I'd call that symmetric or even closed either. It's something in between and kind of an odd configuration for such an intense storm.

Was Michael's western eyewall open?

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Geez go take a nap

Absolutely!  Holy smokes what baby.
 

 Thing is a beast. 150 or 156...don’t think anybody would be able to tell the difference between the two categories at that point, if it hit their town. 

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9 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

For all you idiots who are acting like I just insulted a member of your family, here is the KHGX view which shows the same structure.

These ignorant comments about radar attenuation need to stop.

 

RADAR.png

Maybe it's the birds migrating south out of the eye distorting things

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4 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

More like 125 and 15. Not saying this *will* happen for all the pedantic folks out there, but it's on the table 

No, it isn't. Weakening at this point isn't going to reduce the surge.

Katrina "weakened notably" right before landfall. 

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Commercial aircraft do show up in radar images.  Landing approach paths into airports can be discerned in long-term averaged radar images.  Not sure if the scale is correct for an aircraft, but it's not impossible.

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Just now, KPITSnow said:

Was Michael's western eyewall open?

 

 

Nah, but Michael's eyewall was more intense all around. It still strikes me as odd that the southern eyewall is having a hard time pushing 20dbz and has for most of the day.

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40 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

What is this???

Image_8-26-20_at_6.23_PM.jpg

Probably birds. This has been observed before on other storms and even confirmed by some of the buoy cams.

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We are 3-4 hours from the eye wall coming ashore. I can't imagine there are going to be significant changes in intensity at this point.

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There are clearly several regions on the south end where echoes drop below 20 dBz though.  So the intense eyewall convection is fairly degraded down there.  I'm not saying that recon will find this region completely devoid of convection and bright moonlight shining in, and these asymmetric eyewall structures are somewhat common in event intense hurricanes.  All i'm saying is that this may but a damper on continued strengthening.  But this seemed to have ignited a massive controversy.

It is what it is. There are light echoes there for certain. But just look at the northern semicircle. This vorticity maximum isn't weakening anytime soon. It might have reached a steady-state. Good enough. Unfortunately the damage has already been cemented for landfall impacts.
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Jesus Christ, I thought the MA thread during a winter storm was a shit show. You lot need about 10mg and a few hours away with a ****ing Archie comic or some shit. 

Back to weather: Strong hurricane is strong. 

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