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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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Buoy of the coast of Louisiana -- about 68 miles from the center of Laura -- is sustained at 60 and gusting to hurricane force... Impressive. 

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7 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

There is obviously still time, and pressure seems to still be falling.  New recon is inbound, so lets see what they find in the NW quad.  But I doubt there will even be a post-season upgrade unless there is something unflagged > 140 combined with dropsonde data that at least implicitly supports this intensity.

There was quite a bit of pressure on the NHC to upgrade Michael to a Cat 5 so the FL panhandle would qualify for more emergency relief. Otherwise the NHC might've left him at 155 at landfall. 

EDIT Trying to get away from history but the comparisons between Michael & Laura are hard to ignore. 

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

What is this???

Image_8-26-20_at_6.23_PM.jpg

Hub cloud?

 

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Assuming this isn't banter, any landfall predictions?

Basing off of current trajectories would expect landfall somewhere near or possibly west of Holly Beach. Cameron and Creole, LA along with many other communities are going to sustain catastrophic damage.

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

Hub cloud?

 

That's probably it.  There was a weak signature in IR.  I have never heard of this before today.

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Latest IR definitely shows some warming in NE quadrant but all the other quadrants still look insane. I'm pretty confident this will landfall at 150. Maybe 155 if it strengthens a bit more. The shear may be dampening that now though

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9 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

What is this???

I noticed that too. I have no idea. It had a high CC value so I'm thinking it was a meteorological target.

Sometimes birds and such get trapped in the eye and they show up on radar with low CC values.

Along the same lines though...there was an anomaly in the GOES-16 satellite imagery from about 20:55Z to 21:55Z that darts in from an outer band and takes a bee line toward the eye from east to west. The rumor I had heard is that this anomaly may have been caused by an aircraft. This anomaly is apparent in visible, longwave, and water vapor imagery. Check it out. If anyone has the low down on it let me know.

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Anybody have a guess at what distance frictional convergence starts to play a role? May be the final little bit of umph that takes it to cat 5.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

On a more serious note it could actually be birds stuck in the eye.

CC is high which seemingly suggests a meteorological target.

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Latest IR definitely shows some warming in NE quadrant but all the other quadrants still look insane. I'm pretty confident this will landfall at 150. Maybe 155 if it strengthens a bit more. The shear may be dampening that now though

Unfortunately thats actually the south quadrant on radar.  It should be halting intensification shortly. But no luck for anyone in the NE eyewall.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar

 

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question:

 

Anyone know how diurnal cycles affect major landfalling hurricanes?  I don't think it's much of an affect a this point on Laura but I was wondering if any of you more knowledgeable about the subject might care to opine?

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Given the limitations with the LC NWS website not giving nearby obs in the CWA, Galveston has the lowest pressure I've seen so far at 29.64". Further west I still see 29.65-7".

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3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Unfortunately thats actually the south quadrant on radar.  It should be halting intensification shortly. But no luck for anyone in the NE eyewall.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar

 

I know the shear was suppose to impact the south portion but you see how the clouds have warmed in that NE quadrant. Kind of odd

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3 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Does anybody know any storm chaser live feeds

I believe they are all in Lake Charles. There is a pay site that had live cams but being how dark it is, you probably cannot see anything. Lights went out in Cameron a few minutes ago so that cam is worthless now.

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I do recall Hurricane Rita deepening around the eyewall in this area right before landfall back in 2005. It didn't strengthen...but it began to get colder cloudtops. I wonder if this inverted convex area of the NW Gulf has a shape that almost helps intensification?

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13 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

I noticed that too. I have no idea. It had a high CC value so I'm thinking it was a meteorological target.

Sometimes birds and such get trapped in the eye and they show up on radar with low CC values.

Along the same lines though...there was an anomaly in the GOES-16 satellite imagery from about 20:55Z to 21:55Z that darts in from an outer band and takes a bee line toward the eye from east to west. The rumor I had heard is that this anomaly may have been caused by an aircraft. This anomaly is apparent in visible, longwave, and water vapor imagery. Check it out. If anyone has the low down on it let me know.

I saw that. Looks like it might be an outflow boundary from the erupting towers just to the east right before the "anomaly" becomes visible. I sincerely doubt even the largest plane could cause something like that to appear in satellite imagery. But it is weird, I'll grant you that.

 

Edit: I take it back. Not an outflow. Too weird...

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Southern eyewall appears to have eroded completely.

Show might be over in terms of strengthening.

 

 

Image 8-26-20 at 6.44 PM.jpg

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

Southern eyewall appears to have eroded completely.

Show might be over in terms of strengthening.

 

 

Image 8-26-20 at 6.44 PM.jpg

Or its radar issues, like has been said multiple times tonight....

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