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Major Hurricane Laura

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Is Laura supposed to slow up a bit? At the currently speed of motion it would appear you would have landfall before 5 am. 5 PM NHC still has Laura over water then. Of course if it goes to the right of the official track you have a sooner landfall.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

2007 had Felix and Dean, both which made landfalls as cat 5 on back to back storms.

Yep, mentioned that in my post about the absence of Caribbean Cruisers in recent years. All the monsters have been north. 

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3 minutes ago, STxVortex said:

Sonufabeech---

NWS Lake Charles mainpage:

 

lch.png

you know the shit's going down when the NWS watch/warning/advisory map looks like a bowl of sherbet served to you by an 8-year-old

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Just now, Will - Rutgers said:

you know the shit's going down when the NWS watch/warning/advisory map looks like a bowl of sherbet served to you by an 8-year-old

Is it really helpful though?

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1 minute ago, brianc33710 said:

Here are others:

Dennis 150 mph/930 MB

Opal 150 mph/916 MB

Maria 175 mph/908 MB

Andrew 175 mph/922 MB

Ike 145 mph/935 MB

Katrina 175 mph/902 MB

Gilbert 185 mph/888 MB

Camille 175 mph/900 MB

Rita 180 mph/895 MB

Wilma 185 mph/882 MB

Allen 190 mph/899 MB

And, the beast that might never be beaten:

Patricia 215 mph/872 MB

 

 

Here is a complete list.

Most Intense Atlantic Hurricanes by Central Pressure
----------------------------------------------------

Name             Date     Pressure (mb)
Wilma          Oct 2005       882
Gilbert        Sep 1988       888
"Labor Day"    Sep 1935       892
Rita           Sep 2005       895
Allen          Aug 1980       899
Camille        Aug 1969       900
Katrina        Aug 2005       902
Mitch          Oct 1998       905
Dean           Aug 2007       905
Maria          Sep 2017       908
"Cuba"         Oct 1924       910
Ivan           Sep 2004       910
Dorian         Sep 2019       910
Janet          Oct 1955       914
Irma           Sep 2017       914
Isabel         Sep 2003       915 *
Opal           Oct 1995       916 **
"Camaguey"     Nov 1932       918
Hugo           Sep 1989       918
Gloria         Sep 1985       919 **
Michael        Oct 2018       919
Hattie         Oct 1961       920
"Great Abaco"  Sep 1932       921
Floyd          Sep 1999       921 **
Andrew         Aug 1992       922

*  estimated
** not Category 5


 

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Using the 0Z NHC intensity advisory and a blend of the  21Z NHC and 0Z RAMMB wind field analysis I'm seeing 61 TJ as of 0Z. Note that the RAMMB wind field analysis may be a bit too aggressive on the SW quadrant and that could inflate the IKE a bit.

VmYT9V2.jpg

 

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3 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

Here are others:

Dennis 150 mph/930 MB

Opal 150 mph/916 MB

Maria 175 mph/908 MB

Andrew 175 mph/922 MB

Ike 145 mph/935 MB

Katrina 175 mph/902 MB

Gilbert 185 mph/888 MB

Camille 175 mph/900 MB

Rita 180 mph/895 MB

Wilma 185 mph/882 MB

Allen 190 mph/899 MB

And, the beast that might never be beaten:

Patricia 215 mph/872 MB

 

 

I think Katrina hit 185...

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3 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

Here are others:

Dennis 150 mph/930 MB

Opal 150 mph/916 MB

Maria 175 mph/908 MB

Andrew 175 mph/922 MB

Ike 145 mph/935 MB

Katrina 175 mph/902 MB

Gilbert 185 mph/888 MB

Camille 175 mph/900 MB

Rita 180 mph/895 MB

Wilma 185 mph/882 MB

Allen 190 mph/899 MB

And, the beast that might never be beaten:

Patricia 215 mph/872 MB

 

 

But many of these did not come onshore as CAT 5   Nice list though 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Is it really helpful though?

There needs to be an all encompassing "you're just f**ed" warning.

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Last good visible... Intense lightning still underway in the eastern and western eyewalls. If this thing is going to weaken prior to landfall, it better start doing that ASAP.
2414df7f4e4fc7124e97d7dc66e33c7d.jpg

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Is it really helpful though?

Most people are going to weather.com instead of weather.gov anyways. Especially the normies. They never see this map. 

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4 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Is Laura supposed to slow up a bit? At the currently speed of motion it would appear you would have landfall before 5 am. 5 PM NHC still has Laura over water then. Of course if it goes to the right of the official track you have a sooner landfall.

? I'm seeing 1 am landfall on the NHC track

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Is it really helpful though?

it isn't, it's a tool that's not meant for these kind of events, as far as i can tell.  you only get one color so how do you prioritize it?  a tornado warning is probably the most severe and immediate threat to life/property, but if you just wait 24 hours in Lake Charles your 6th story apartment will be the ground floor of a new aquarium, so why are you there anyway?  idk man.

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Just now, Will - Rutgers said:

it isn't, it's a tool that's not meant for these kind of events, as far as i can tell.  you only get one color so how do you prioritize it?  a tornado warning is probably the most severe and immediate threat to life/property, but if you just wait 24 hours in Lake Charles your 6th story apartment will be the ground floor of a new aquarium, so why are you there anyway?  idk man.

Yeah. I was more commenting on the need to throw 100 different warning at people. It just seems like too much. 

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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

? I'm seeing 1 am landfall on the NHC track

You are right, Laura is running out of time to weaken in any meaningful way. Nothing is going to stop the surge though

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12 minutes ago, Hotair said:

But many of these did not come onshore as CAT 5   Nice list though 

Katrina's air pressure at landfall was 920 MB compared to Andrew at 922. But Andrew was a Cat 5 at landfall while Katrina had "weakened" back to a high-end Cat 3, 125 mph. I think Katrina's 1st LA landfall was 1st estimated at 140 mph/CAT 4 though.

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Just now, brianc33710 said:

Katrina's air pressure at landfall was 920 MB compared to Andrew at 922. But Andrew was a Cat 5 at landfall while Katrina had "weakened" back to a high-end Cat 3, 125 mph. I think Katrina's 1st landfall was 1st estimated at 140 mph/CAT 4 though.

No, Katrina was like a 90mph cat 1 at the first landfall in FL

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, Katrina was like a 90mph cat 1 at the first landfall in FL

He clearly meant the first landfall in LA.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, Katrina was like a 90mph cat 1 at the first landfall in FL

I think he meant the first landfall over LA, near Grand Isle, LA, it made landfall on SE LA and then a second over or near Gulfport, MS

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its all about location....you can have a weaker storm top this if it strikes a major metro area.

Yup. As bad and as horrifying as Laura will be, I couldn't shake the thought today that Laura could of been one of, if not the worst natural disaster in US history if it came ashore 100 miles or so west into the Houston metro. This is of course no condolence to the folks about to lose everything in SW Louisiana. 

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Just now, brianc33710 said:

Katrina's air pressure at landfall was 920 MB compared to Andrew at 922. But Andrew was a Cat 5 at landfall while Katrina had "weakened" back to a high-end Cat 3, 125 mph. I think Katrina's 1st landfall was 1st estimated at 140 mph/CAT 4 though.

I remember Katrina's overall size was very large ...almost nearing Hugo size so that weakening I don't think made much difference on the real ground . I remember the slabs of concrete was all that was left in many coastal areas of southern Mississippi . 

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Just now, kvegas-wx said:

I swear I googled Irma's landfall earlier today and it was 155 Cat 4 at landfall.  

I think it went through the keys at 145 or so. Then Marco Island at 130 I believe. I also have family in Naples that can say it was frightening even at that level. 

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