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Major Hurricane Laura

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I would consider Andrew modern times wouldn’t you?

Also Maria was a cat 5 when it hit PR. 

Andrew was upgraded posthumously. You are correct.   And I forgot about Camille. And earlier ones. Maria struck as a 4 as mentioned by others 

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I would consider Andrew modern times wouldn’t you?

My wife still has PTSD from Andrew, along with a lot people here in Florida.

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Around 5.5hrs till landfall based on forward speed of 15mph, Holly Beach, just west of Cameron.  Very close to worst case scenario for Lake Charles.  

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Just now, Akeem the African Dream said:

nailed it 

To be honest, there will probably be a more intense storm within this year with the Caribbean pretty prime for a September long tracker. Think about it, we haven’t seen a central Caribbean hit of significance in the past decade. Everything has been centered Antilles and north. 
 

It’s been a while since places like Nicaragua and Central America have been threatened by monsters like Dean, Felix, etc. 

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12 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

go look up sandy...pretty sure that and camille were both 5's too

Sandy was Cat 3 in Jamaica/Cuba and 85mph Cat 1 in NJ-946mb. Very low pressure but massive wind field and fetch for surge. 

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Laura is essentially a borderline 4/5 now. Also thanks to those that looked into the wind vs pressure relationship. Clearly Laura is embedded within a higher than normal pressure regime.

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6 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

nailed it 

It’s 2020 so naturally this will somehow be topped.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

It’s 2020 so naturally this will somehow be topped.

2005 had Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma as 5’s. Am I missing any? Haha

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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Laura is essentially a borderline 4/5 now. Also thanks to those that looked into the wind vs pressure relationship. Clearly Laura is embedded within a higher than normal pressure regime.

That's what I assumed. It's really pushing into that ridge.

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Only saving grace here is where it is landfalling. It is going to be awful for the Lake Charles area, but if this would have run up galveston bay or new orleans this would end up being one of he worst natural disasters we have ever seen.

Not downplaying it, but looking for even small saving graces.

Edit: And Katrina wasn't even worst case scenario for New Orleans. It was more of a infrastructure disaster. If Katrina would have gone West of New Orleans it would have been MUCH worse.

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8 minutes ago, Prospero said:

My wife still has PTSD from Andrew, along with a lot people here in Florida.

Lucky that the eyewall came into Homestead instead of South Beach.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its all about location....you can have a weaker storm top this if it strikes a major metro area.

Agreed, Miami/FL east coast has escaped for some time now (04 was rough with Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne). Galveston/NOLA/Biloxi haven’t had it too bad either

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Here are others:

Dennis 150 mph/930 MB

Opal 150 mph/916 MB

Maria 175 mph/908 MB

Andrew 175 mph/922 MB

Ike 145 mph/935 MB

Katrina 175 mph/902 MB

Gilbert 185 mph/888 MB

Camille 175 mph/900 MB

Rita 180 mph/895 MB

Wilma 185 mph/882 MB

Allen 190 mph/899 MB

Mitch 180 mph/905 MB

And, the beast that might never be beaten, although in the Pacific basin instead of the Atlantic:

Patricia 215 mph/872 MB

Edited to reflect Patricia in the E Pacific basin with all the others in the Atlantic

Worldwide pressure record, West Pacific basin:

Typhoon Tip 190 mph/870 MB

 

 

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3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

2005 had Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma as 5’s. Am I missing any? Haha

2007 had Felix and Dean, both which made landfalls as cat 5 on back to back storms. Obviously neither hit the US.

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Just now, andyhb said:

This one is comparable to Charley in terms of wind speed/pressure relationship, but Laura is considerably larger.

This makes me wonder about the calibration of the SFMR.  There has been concern with the calibration since 2016, and this is an ongoing active area of study.  It seems to have a high bias for extreme winds.  I mean look at Dorian, 910 mb and 185 mph?  Ok, Gilbert 888/185 and Wilma 882/185, and Gilbert and Wilma had pinhole eyes.  Dorian had a large eye, like Laura does now.  Matthew 160 and only 941?  That's the highest wind for a the highest pressure for a Cat 5 in the Atlantic.  Charley's 150/941 a makes sense since it has a pinhole eye and was undergoing very strong RI at the time.

it's one of two things, either the SFMR winds are correct and thus we have to go back and adjust winds up for many historical intense hurricanes, or it high bias is real and recent intense Atlantic TC winds need to be adjusted down.  Operationally, Irma's winds were 185 mph, but in post-season analysis, they were lower to 180 mph presumably b/c of the high SFMR bias.

The Labor Day Hurricane in 1935 was 892 mb and assigned 185 mph in re-analysis, but I believe intensity is capped at 185 mph for pre-recon hurricanes in the Hurricane Re-analysis Project.  This hurricane was very small (smaller RMW than Andrew) and given what we know now about hurricane structure and dynamics, chances are good it had winds around 200 mph.  It gets quite tricky to determine the true strength of very intense TCs w/o actual in situ data.   And the smaller they are, the harder it is, even in this day and age with advanced satellites.  The Dvorak scale does not do well with small intense TCs overall.

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