• Member Statistics

    16,055
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LostInSomers
    Newest Member
    LostInSomers
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

Recommended Posts

Just now, jojo762 said:

So we'll probably be looking at 940mb/155mph with the 7pm CDT update. Incredible. HWRF nailed the intensity forecast pretty well i'd say.

HMON and EURO did about as good as you can ask too.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Amped said:

HMON and EURO did about as good as you can ask too.

Euro not on track though. Intensity it did well. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

I was just checking back. Dorian bottomed out at 913 MB. Michael, whose winds are similar to Laura's, dropped to 919 MB. So Laura isn't there, at least not yet. Of course Katrina, Rita & Wilma dropped well below 900 MB. 

I depends on the ambient pressure envt, too....if its a high pressure regime, that matters.

Someone who knows can specify because I do not know.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s just a touch, right a long the TX coast.

Ironically, had it landfalled farther west into TX, not even necessarily HOU area it may have had more of an impact. Also the shear will be more parallel at this angle vs perpendicular which is less impactful on a system. Did see the HMON turn a bit NW in the last few hours before landfall but probably negligible effects.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even if it has peaked or even weakens a tad from here on it will not matter surge wise, this is a very bad situation. I agree that overall the HWRF wins the model battle, this pressure is very close to what it has had for a couple of days.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro not on track though. Intensity it did well. 

Impressed by how well the GFS sniffed out the further East track.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Cheeznado said:

Even if it has peaked or even weakens a tad from here on it will not matter surge wise, this is a very bad situation. I agree that overall the HWRF wins the model battle, this pressure is very close to what it has had for a couple of days.

The HWRF bombs every storm out. It was bound to be right eventually.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, highways1 said:

Ironically, had it landfalled farther west into TX, not even necessarily HOU area it may have had more of an impact. Also the shear will be more parallel at this angle vs perpendicular which is less impactful on a system. Did see the HMON turn a bit NW in the last few hours before landfall but probably negligible effects.

Part of it could just be some land friction. I agree that it should at minimum maintain intensity through landfall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One has to wonder if after this, what happens to Cameron Parish in terms of governmental function. At minimum, you could see the dis-incorporation of the towns there and maybe Calcasieu Parish or the state assuming most government function for them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SnowLover22 said:

Wow That 172 knot or 200 mph reading is :lmao:

 

recon_NOAA2-2413A-LAURA_dropsonde3_20200826-2301.png

That’s still pretty far up. More impressive is the 140+kts just barely above the surface now.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I keep trying to get data from the observations from the Lake Charles NWS stations for comparisons but only one station shows at a time. Are others having the same problems? The fact that the pressure is still around 29.7" with Laura not that far away must mean that the readings are just about to plummet all at once. 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ray you were on target.  The central pressure of a hurricane does not reflect the same residual thought in every storm scenario.  This is what I mean; in hurricane A, the pressure of 920mb equates to 175 mph sustained winds, but hurricane B a pressure of 935mb equates to 175 mph and hurricane C the pressure of 880mb equates to 175 mph winds.  Each example as a different environmental pressure threshold.  If the overall environment around the storm is higher compared to average, the center of the storm will behave accordingly and in tandem.  The western Caribbean Sea had extremely low environmental pressure when Wilma was a category five hurricane at 882mb.  Higher pressures in the environment around the storm, higher the pressures inside the eye of the hurricane.  and then vice versa.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Calderon said:

One has to wonder if after this, what happens to Cameron Parish in terms of governmental function. At minimum, you could see the dis-incorporation of the towns there and maybe Calcasieu Parish or the state assuming most government function for them.

The people in New Orleans are glad this storm isn’t 100 miles further East. Would have been a good test for the upgrades since Katrina. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ray you were on target.  The central pressure of a hurricane does not reflect the same residual thought in every storm scenario.  This is what I mean; in hurricane A, the pressure of 920mb equates to 175 mph sustained winds, but hurricane B a pressure of 935mb equates to 175 mph and hurricane C the pressure of 880mb equates to 175 mph winds.  Each example as a different environmental pressure threshold.  If the overall environment around the storm is higher compared to average, the center of the storm will behave accordingly and in tandem.  The western Caribbean Sea had extremely low environmental pressure when Wilma was a category five hurricane at 882mb.  Higher pressures in the environment around the storm, higher the pressures inside the eye of the hurricane.  and then vice versa.

Its all about the gradient.....generally speaking, we can associate a given pressure with a wind speed, but it varies....sometimes significantly so.

Same thing with winter storms....blizz of 78 was only like 983mb (1050mb HI)...sorry for OT, but somewhat related.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I did exceptionally well with the track....had that nailed Sunday,  but I gotta admit....I bought into the light shear/dry air having this come in as a 3.

Oh well. Learning experience.

The best part of this hobby imo is the humbling unpredictability. This setup could have played out 10 times and probably in at least half the shear would have won out.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

7:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 28.4°N 92.9°W
Moving: NNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 940 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

 

49 minutes ago, ScottB said:

940/150

:)

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NJwx85 said:

The best part of this hobby imo is the humbling unpredictability. This setup could have played out 10 times and probably in at least half the shear would have won out.

Happens with respect to the tropics, and my winter outlooks....everytime I get cocky and over confident, mother nature sends me to bed with no supper lol

  • Like 1
  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, andyhb said:

Can we not have meteorologists talking about weather modification in here?

I actually found it quite humorous 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The people in New Orleans are glad this storm isn’t 100 miles further East. Would have been a good rest for the upgrades since Katrina. 

Agreed and I think Cameron is about as fortunate a place possible for the harshest winds to come onshore.  Lots of open land and inexpensive structures 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Laura is more than making up for Marcos falling apart so quickly after reaching hurricane status, not that this is necessarily a "good" thing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

From Christopher Hollis---Tropical Atlantic

NOAA recon through 6:31pm CDT. NHC track and position as of 4pm CDT. SSEC RealEarth satellite imagery, Mesoscale Floater 1, Band 13, color, at 6:37pm CDT.

7hDUk5L.thumb.jpg.aad1b0bd57e24cab1e942c7e54e22e63.jpg

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Happens with respect to the tropics, and my winter outlooks....everytime I get cocky and over confident, mother nature sends me to bed with no supper lol

Severe too. Some days you can get big outbreaks in marginal setups and then nothing on days where it looked like a lock.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.