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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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The forecast for West Cameron Parish tonight: Hurricane Conditions, NE winds 95-120 mph shifting to SW 95-115 after midnight. And just to realize that these already forecasted dangerous wind speeds may still not be as strong as what actually impacts areas right around the eyewall actually comes ashore. The Lake Charles NWS said to prepare for gusts up to 150 mph. Now the sustained wind speeds could reach that!

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Okay it looks like outflow is being restricted somewhat now on the NW side.

Barely.......

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5 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Yeah, you were right to argue about that one.  I can't think of another comparable example.

Yeah its not small either. That is a decent high over the Tennessee Valley. Could be contributing. 

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

Barely.......

To be honest I don't see it being restricted at all... Running out of time quickly for shear to weaken the core any appreciable degree. I'm not sure it will weaken at all -- a high-end category 4 hurricane with highly impressive outflow channels in all quadrants probably is not going to be significantly effected by a weak summertime s/w in Texas.

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Just now, jojo762 said:

To be honest I don't see it being restricted at all... Running out of time quickly for shear to weaken the core any appreciable degree. I'm not sure it will weaken at all -- a high-end category 4 hurricane with highly impressive outflow channels in all quadrants probably is not going to be significantly effected by a weak summertime s/w in Texas.

Yeah i'm with you.  Saying the outflow looks restricted seems like grasping for straws at this point.  Satellite presentation looks better than ever.  ADT holding at T6.5, as high as ever.

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4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

looks like sub 940

I was just checking back. Dorian bottomed out at 913 MB. Michael, whose winds are similar to Laura's, dropped to 919 MB. So Laura isn't there, at least not yet. Of course Katrina, Rita & Wilma dropped well below 900 MB. 

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3 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

Im getting 175 mph wind velocities from radar at about 12 thousand feet. 

Check out the velocity image.  I don't see any greater than 123kt (which covers a large area) which makes me think it's an issue with grlevel3 or my settings on it.

2020-08-26_192715.jpg

 

 

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For all you chatting about barometric pressures, Laura appears to be going lower than Harvey at landfall  [almost exactly 3 years ago]; and Laura is still way offshore :

"The minimum pressure of Harvey is estimated to be 937 mb, based on a dropsonde measurement of 938 mb with 10 kt of surface wind at 0215 UTC 26 August. The lowest observed pressure on land was 940.8 mb reported by a storm chaser in Rockport at 0331 UTC 26 August.
Another storm chaser reported a pressure of 932.8 mb in Rockport at about the same time, but this observation is questionable because other pressure readings in the area were several mb higher. It is also possible that this pressure was observed in an eyewall mesovortex, which would not be representative of the overall circulation."

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I forget what it's called but as the storm gets closer the radar returns in the eye are starting to look like they are squaring off'  Remember it being brought up in Harvey and Michael.

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Area of category 3+ FL winds is quite large... Probably >20 miles in width. Yikes.

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5 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

To be honest I don't see it being restricted at all... Running out of time quickly for shear to weaken the core any appreciable degree. I'm not sure it will weaken at all -- a high-end category 4 hurricane with highly impressive outflow channels in all quadrants probably is not going to be significantly effected by a weak summertime s/w in Texas.

This is pretty much the situation. There's no time for any meaningful negative impact I don't think at this point. Leveling...sure. 

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Really unfortunate evolution today, awful for the humans, animals and infrastructure in the path and downstream.

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Just now, Jackstraw said:

I forget what it's called but as the storm gets closer the radar returns in the eye are starting to look like they are squaring off'  Remember it being brought up in Harvey and Michael.

Numerous meso-vorticies within the eye at this time.

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Staring at the last 5 hours of satellite loop it seems like the system is really struggling to make it west of Lake Charles’s longitude. Appears to be heading about 350 degrees or almost due north the last hour or two.

Would have major implications for surge for that area if they remain in eastern eyewall.

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So we'll probably be looking at 940mb/155mph with the 7pm CDT update. Incredible. HWRF nailed the intensity forecast pretty well i'd say.

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Even before I just saw recon data I was thinking this has the look of a Cat 5, considering the data from earlier and the fact it's obviously stronger now. Recon confirms it is a Cat 5 in my opinion with winds of 160 MPH. Yes they only found 155 MPH, but that's only one slice of the storm, and there's gotta be 160 MPH somewhere. 

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8 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Yeah i'm with you.  Saying the outflow looks restricted seems like grasping for straws at this point.  Satellite presentation looks better than ever.  ADT holding at T6.5, as high as ever.

It’s just a touch, right a long the TX coast.

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Some people are talking about inhibiting factors and some quadrants being restricted but it looks as good as ever right now to my eye. Any weakening before landfall looks to be minimal and seems trivial at this point as this is going to be a devastating hit no matter what.

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