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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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2 minutes ago, Hotair said:

I know the seasoned Mets here may not be greatly surprised at what a robust cane Laura has blossomed into ( After all they knew from the various models that strengthening was expected once she left Cuba ) but I just have to say I am humbled by the way this storm has developed into A textbook Looking major cane in just under 2 days time.     I worry now that many in its path probably did not believe Laura would ever amount to much. 

There's quite a bit of local media down there in SW LA & the Acadiana region reporting on folks getting the hell out today with the much stronger hurricane. Unfortunately, there's also a fair amount that do not have the means to get out down there as well. 

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3 minutes ago, Hotair said:

I know the seasoned Mets here may not be greatly surprised at what a robust cane Laura has blossomed into ( After all they knew from the various models that strengthening was expected once she left Cuba ) but I just have to say I am humbled by the way this storm has developed into A textbook Looking major cane in just under 2 days time.     I worry now that many in its path probably did not believe Laura would ever amount to much. 

 

It was always the fear, but I kinda started to think yesterday that Laura might stay more like Ike around 105-110 mph. Laura outdid expectations though.

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Just now, AMZ8990 said:

Cause their underwater 95 percent of the time at the moment 

I should have specified most havent reported in weeks.

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16 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
17 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:
Who is Dorian?

Lol... I did a thing didn't I? You folks know what I meant.

At least you didn't say "she" lol

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Does Laura's intensity at landfall even matter at this point? The massive storm surge is going to inflict damage beyond what the eyewall's capable of. Either way, It's close enough to land that I can't imagine the wind shear is going to weaken it to anything under a category 3.

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8 minutes ago, STxVortex said:

Quibble if you want, I'm just reducing the navigational problem to it's simplest elements.

NHC hasn't hardly budged in it's latest synopsis.

Do tell about when that course change was supposed to begin [hint-- a while ago]. 320 is real close to 315 degrees, at ~170 miles it only displaces a few miles northeast from the terminal point.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 92.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

So it's gone from 311 to 320 in about an hour.  That's what the start of making a turn looks like.  

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4 minutes ago, friedmators said:

I should have specified most havent reported in weeks.

Our infrastructure sucks. That’s why buoys aren’t maintained and why the planes keep having comm issues. Having data is not as important as tax cuts. 

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Just now, andyhb said:

image.thumb.png.f51b334fed0ed9381e42c3b2a0f4c5e8.png

Updated surge potential map from NHC is frightening for Lake Charles.

Incredible that surge is going to potentially get into the lower 1/3 of Beauregard Parish. I have family in/near DeRidder and they're terrified of the wind damage potential because it's predominantly pine forest up there. 

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5 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Updated surge potential map from NHC is frightening for Lake Charles.

this thing is going to give local geography the MS Paint treatment

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Offshore observation: ESE wind at 58 gusting to 67mph at "South Marsh 268A" which is 25 mi south of Marsh Island

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12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Guys...09227a3e30723abe3ba46bdf1dddbc1e.jpg

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

These bins may be range folded even though they weren't technically flagged as such. Most bins on the right flank are in the 125-135 kts range. You can't trust those +200 mph (+170 kt) bins either way.

BTW...this is at 5000 meters. Most of the wind profile tables I've seen only go up to 3000 meters so at this point I'm not sure what reduction factor to use to normalize to the surface. At any rate...125-135 kts at 5000 meters is impressive nonetheless.

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4 minutes ago, trey3216 said:

So it's gone from 311 to 320 in about an hour.  That's what the start of making a turn looks like.  

I think that you're using my much earlier '311 reciprocal course heading calculation', based on an earlier NHC lat/long position [~13/1400hr]. 

NHC has been using a heading of 315-320 for hours now. IOW, still no 'turn' of significance yet.

Meanwhile Laura is running out of water and fetch.

...500 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE..

...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 92.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS [SSE=157.5degrees,  A near due north course change/"turn" would have to occur about now to fetch the advertised landfall point]
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH [ed: NO change!]...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

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Just now, STxVortex said:

I think that you're using my much earlier '311 reciprocal course heading calculation', based on an earlier NHC lat/long position [~13/1400hr]. 

NHC has been using a heading of 315-320 for hours now. IOW, still no 'turn' of significance yet.

Meanwhile Laura is running out of water and fetch.

...500 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE..

...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 92.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS [SSE=157.5degrees,  A near due north course change/"turn" would have to occur about now to fetch the advertised landfall point]
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH [ed: NO change!]...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

Hurricanes don't have momentum in the traditional sense, so they can turn on a dime. The weakness is there, it's going to turn. 

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1 minute ago, STxVortex said:

I think that you're using my much earlier '311 reciprocal course heading calculation', based on an earlier NHC lat/long position [~13/1400hr]. 

NHC has been using a heading of 315-320 for hours now. IOW, still no 'turn' of significance yet.

Meanwhile Laura is running out of water and fetch.

...500 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE..

...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 92.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS [SSE=157.5degrees,  A near due north course change/"turn" would have to occur about now to fetch the advertised landfall point]
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH [ed: NO change!]...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

huh theres even a hint of an easterly component in the motion now

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5 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Hope recon fixes their pressure sensor.

I still maintain that if they had a pressure sensor issue, they would not be flying.  This is a pretty serious aviation hazard.  So this has to be something to do with the algorithm that they are using to calculate the reduction.

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5 minutes ago, friedmators said:

huh theres even a hint of an easterly component in the motion now

Due to the elliptical shape of the eye, the current wobble looks easterly, but it's mainly due north/northwest. We're seeing the turn north now, imo. 

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Regarding the weak returns in the southern eyewall, this appears to be a robust signature (It has been persistent from all radar vantages), and is probably indicative of southwesterly shear.  Doesn't necessarily mean the onset of weakening at all - to the contrary, the satellite presentation looks the best it has yet.  If you recall, Harvey made landfall with a similar "incomplete" eyewall signature, whilst rapidly intensifying.  It's simply an observation that indicates the presence of some shear in the environment.

 

 

 

 

RADAR.png

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4 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

I still maintain that if they had a pressure sensor issue, they would not be flying.  This is a pretty serious aviation hazard.  So this has to be something to do with the algorithm that they are using to calculate the reduction.

The pressure sensors used for the data we see are different than the ones the pilots use. It’s a different system completely. I definitely lean toward algorithm issue.

 

Edit: Agreed on the eyewall. Took a closer look and I think you are right on that

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Seems like the IR appearance has degraded *just a tad* over the last couple hours, especially wrt symmetry of the CDO, I would assume this a result of the shear from the s/w over Texas... While this really means nothing as far as impacts to the coast and upstream, this could mean that Laura has reached its peak intensity. 

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2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Seems like the IR appearance has degraded *just a tad* over the last couple hours, especially wrt symmetry of the CDO, I would assume this a result of the shear from the s/w over Texas... While this really means nothing as far as impacts to the coast and upstream, this could mean that Laura has reached its peak intensity. 

I'm actually under the opposite impression, eyewall has continued to cool especially near the end of the loop, and the eye is as hot as ever

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Hurricanes don't have momentum in the traditional sense, so they can turn on a dime. The weakness is there, it's going to turn. 

I understand that, I remember one that was stuck off the Florida Panhandle and looked/moved around like a hockey player.

But Laura is only 140 miles SSE of Port Arthur, which is now well within Laura's TS wind field.

And I don't really fully buy that 'no momentum' jazz, it's carrying billions of tons of water aloft...

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