Major Hurricane Laura

[Akeem the African Dream]

this is probably one that will require shutters for those that need them.  not the waste of time like like it was for those that did it for Isaias

I picked up an extra two tanks of propane this morning.  pretty well stocked on necessities and other supplies atm so I'll just be focusing on getting my job sites ready and let the chips fall where they may.

[ldub23]

If 14 gets  in the gom 13 will go east  of FLA. they wont  both be  in the gom. 12Z gfs and Euro arent  impressed.

[cheese007]

29 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Why the quotation marks? Center does make landfall, unless it does do a full recurve

 

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Probably doesn't make landfall given historical model error and meteorological history

[lakeeffectkid383]

14 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

If 14 gets  in the gom 13 will go east  of FLA. they wont  both be  in the gom. 12Z gfs and Euro arent  impressed.

12z Euro not even out yet lmfao. 
 

don’t you get tired of swinging back and forth with every model run? I’m exhausted just watching ya. 

[ldub23]

Just now, WesterlyWx said:

12z Euro not even out yet lmfao. 

Last  nights  of  course. GFS has  joined  it today

[Orangeburgwx]

12z GFS takes a strong tropical storm into the panhandle and keeps it moving NW over GA/AL... Doesnt even get hurricane strength

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[turtlehurricane]

7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

12z GFS takes a strong tropical storm into the panhandle and keeps it moving NW over GA/AL... Doesnt even get hurricane strength

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GFS is not a hurricane model. This is a small storm, like Andrew, and only the hurricane models like HWRF and HMON can resolve it properly. 

All that matters for GFS is the track forecast. 

[JaxBeachCaneHunter]

2 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

GFS is not a hurricane model. This is a small storm, like Andrew, and only the hurricane models like HWRF and HMON can resolve it properly. 

All that matters for GFS is the track forecast. 

Which was more or less similar to what the ICON was showing as far as track goes. 

[Sam Kane]

Pensacola landfall!!

[Jtm12180]

20 minutes ago, Sam Kane said:

Pensacola landfall!!

There was a time when Isaias was forecasted for that area too...

[Windspeed]

[NJwx85]

12z HWRF hrs 60-90.

[NJwx85]

HRS 93-105

[NJwx85]

Interesting thing about the 12z HMON is that it's much slower to organize than the HWRF. Really gets going in the Bahamas and then rapidly intensifies before slamming into Florida.

[Seminole]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Interesting thing about the 12z HMON is that it's much slower to organize than the HWRF. Really gets going in the Bahamas and then rapidly intensifies before slamming into Florida.

HMON is an insurance company nightmare scenario. Enter via Miami and exit via Tampa. 

[Hc7]

26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Interesting thing about the 12z HMON is that it's much slower to organize than the HWRF. Really gets going in the Bahamas and then rapidly intensifies before slamming into Florida.

That could make sense given the fact it has to go through a rather dry area with higher shear for the next 24+ hours, right? Its not supposed to look good (structurally) or strong for the next 24-36 hours given the area it has to trek through. IMO whats most important is 1. what the system looks like after it gets northward of the islands and out of the less favorable conditions and 2. how much does it slow down and how much of a boost does it get once in the favorable conditions surrounding FL/Bahamas? It may only get 48+ hours in those favorable conditions before running into landfall but weve seen it before that thats all you really need for a system like this to rapidly intensify enough to become a serious hurricane. Not that it will mimic Andrew or that its similar, but Andrew was barely hanging on right before it got into favorable conditions and then it went "boom" and rapidly intensified(and turned sharply), the rest is history. I think it should be expected to look a bit rough for the next 24+ hours, ill definitely be watching HMON/HWRF closely, what theyre saying seems to make more sense to me(at least intensity wise, maybe not track).

[WxWatcher007]

GEFS Para on both systems. No surprise that there’s enormous uncertainty in both track and intensity. Definitely not underdispersive like the old GEFS.

 

[cptcatz]

17 minutes ago, Hc7 said:

That could make sense given the fact it has to go through a rather dry area with higher shear for the next 24+ hours, right? Its not supposed to look good (structurally) or strong for the next 24-36 hours given the area it has to trek through. IMO whats most important is 1. what the system looks like after it gets northward of the islands and out of the less favorable conditions and 2. how much does it slow down and how much of a boost does it get once in the favorable conditions surrounding FL/Bahamas? It may only get 48+ hours in those favorable conditions before running into landfall but weve seen it before that thats all you really need for a system like this to rapidly intensify enough to become a serious hurricane. Not that it will mimic Andrew or that its similar, but Andrew was barely hanging on right before it got into favorable conditions and then it went "boom" and rapidly intensified(and turned sharply), the rest is history. I think it should be expected to look a bit rough for the next 24+ hours, ill definitely be watching HMON/HWRF closely, what theyre saying seems to make more sense to me(at least intensity wise, maybe not track).

I'll add the 1935 Labor Day hurricane went from basically nothing to the strongest Atlantic storm to ever make landfall right in the same area...

[ldub23]

I think the Euro is the  model to follow. has  13 as  basically  nothing(it  may be a wave  now) and  14 as a weakening tropical storm in texas. 14 may be  open as well. I think if  97L gets  buried in mexico and if  98 can slow  down dramatically  in the  bahamas and turn north it  may be able  to be another Isaias. If it  continues flying west development  is  doubtful.

[wizard021]

Td 13 is toast.  May reform.

[turtlehurricane]

I think by tonight during diurnal convective maximum it can become a tropical storm, but this may very well end up being Marco. TD 14 could easily become Laura at 5 PM. 

[wizard021]

Just like Katrina the wave opened up in the same general spot. Not a tc right now I don't see west winds. 

[the ghost of leroy]

3 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

this is probably one that will require shutters for those that need them.  not the waste of time like like it was for those that did it for Isaias

I picked up an extra two tanks of propane this morning.  pretty well stocked on necessities and other supplies atm so I'll just be focusing on getting my job sites ready and let the chips fall where they may.

Hebert box’ed. Definitely worth prepping and getting some tingles over. 

[Sam Kane]

Remember what year it is, this will be a name dropper!!

[Calderon]

51 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I think the Euro is the  model to follow. has  13 as  basically  nothing(it  may be a wave  now) and  14 as a weakening tropical storm in texas. .

How many times are you going repeat the same general s**t? Seriously. 

[Doorman]

https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php

DOUBLE TROUBLE

[Sam Kane]

Don't cry little one it will be ok!

[wizard021]

Ecmwf ensembles have action in the gulf both systems. 

[Orangeburgwx]

Why are you guys saying 13 is toast? Recon isn't even in the system yet or are you going by IR? (AF305 is in 14 right now).

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[wizard021]

Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

Why are you guys saying 13 is toast? Recon isn't even in the system yet or are you going by IR? (AF305 is in 14 right now).

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I can't find westerly inflow . It is in dmin but looking like an open wave.  Ecmwf ensembles pick up in the gulf. So will watch .