Akeem the African Dream Posted August 20 this is probably one that will require shutters for those that need them. not the waste of time like like it was for those that did it for Isaias I picked up an extra two tanks of propane this morning. pretty well stocked on necessities and other supplies atm so I'll just be focusing on getting my job sites ready and let the chips fall where they may. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ldub23 Posted August 20 If 14 gets in the gom 13 will go east of FLA. they wont both be in the gom. 12Z gfs and Euro arent impressed. 6 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cheese007 Posted August 20 29 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Why the quotation marks? Center does make landfall, unless it does do a full recurve Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Probably doesn't make landfall given historical model error and meteorological history Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 20 14 minutes ago, ldub23 said: If 14 gets in the gom 13 will go east of FLA. they wont both be in the gom. 12Z gfs and Euro arent impressed. 12z Euro not even out yet lmfao. don’t you get tired of swinging back and forth with every model run? I’m exhausted just watching ya. 5 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ldub23 Posted August 20 Just now, WesterlyWx said: 12z Euro not even out yet lmfao. Last nights of course. GFS has joined it today 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted August 20 12z GFS takes a strong tropical storm into the panhandle and keeps it moving NW over GA/AL... Doesnt even get hurricane strength Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turtlehurricane Posted August 20 7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 12z GFS takes a strong tropical storm into the panhandle and keeps it moving NW over GA/AL... Doesnt even get hurricane strength Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk GFS is not a hurricane model. This is a small storm, like Andrew, and only the hurricane models like HWRF and HMON can resolve it properly. All that matters for GFS is the track forecast. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JaxBeachCaneHunter Posted August 20 2 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: GFS is not a hurricane model. This is a small storm, like Andrew, and only the hurricane models like HWRF and HMON can resolve it properly. All that matters for GFS is the track forecast. Which was more or less similar to what the ICON was showing as far as track goes. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sam Kane Posted August 20 Pensacola landfall!! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jtm12180 Posted August 20 20 minutes ago, Sam Kane said: Pensacola landfall!! There was a time when Isaias was forecasted for that area too... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted August 20 12z HWRF hrs 60-90. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted August 20 Interesting thing about the 12z HMON is that it's much slower to organize than the HWRF. Really gets going in the Bahamas and then rapidly intensifies before slamming into Florida. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Seminole Posted August 20 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Interesting thing about the 12z HMON is that it's much slower to organize than the HWRF. Really gets going in the Bahamas and then rapidly intensifies before slamming into Florida. HMON is an insurance company nightmare scenario. Enter via Miami and exit via Tampa. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hc7 Posted August 20 26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Interesting thing about the 12z HMON is that it's much slower to organize than the HWRF. Really gets going in the Bahamas and then rapidly intensifies before slamming into Florida. That could make sense given the fact it has to go through a rather dry area with higher shear for the next 24+ hours, right? Its not supposed to look good (structurally) or strong for the next 24-36 hours given the area it has to trek through. IMO whats most important is 1. what the system looks like after it gets northward of the islands and out of the less favorable conditions and 2. how much does it slow down and how much of a boost does it get once in the favorable conditions surrounding FL/Bahamas? It may only get 48+ hours in those favorable conditions before running into landfall but weve seen it before that thats all you really need for a system like this to rapidly intensify enough to become a serious hurricane. Not that it will mimic Andrew or that its similar, but Andrew was barely hanging on right before it got into favorable conditions and then it went "boom" and rapidly intensified(and turned sharply), the rest is history. I think it should be expected to look a bit rough for the next 24+ hours, ill definitely be watching HMON/HWRF closely, what theyre saying seems to make more sense to me(at least intensity wise, maybe not track). Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20 GEFS Para on both systems. No surprise that there’s enormous uncertainty in both track and intensity. Definitely not underdispersive like the old GEFS. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cptcatz Posted August 20 17 minutes ago, Hc7 said: That could make sense given the fact it has to go through a rather dry area with higher shear for the next 24+ hours, right? Its not supposed to look good (structurally) or strong for the next 24-36 hours given the area it has to trek through. IMO whats most important is 1. what the system looks like after it gets northward of the islands and out of the less favorable conditions and 2. how much does it slow down and how much of a boost does it get once in the favorable conditions surrounding FL/Bahamas? It may only get 48+ hours in those favorable conditions before running into landfall but weve seen it before that thats all you really need for a system like this to rapidly intensify enough to become a serious hurricane. Not that it will mimic Andrew or that its similar, but Andrew was barely hanging on right before it got into favorable conditions and then it went "boom" and rapidly intensified(and turned sharply), the rest is history. I think it should be expected to look a bit rough for the next 24+ hours, ill definitely be watching HMON/HWRF closely, what theyre saying seems to make more sense to me(at least intensity wise, maybe not track). I'll add the 1935 Labor Day hurricane went from basically nothing to the strongest Atlantic storm to ever make landfall right in the same area... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ldub23 Posted August 20 I think the Euro is the model to follow. has 13 as basically nothing(it may be a wave now) and 14 as a weakening tropical storm in texas. 14 may be open as well. I think if 97L gets buried in mexico and if 98 can slow down dramatically in the bahamas and turn north it may be able to be another Isaias. If it continues flying west development is doubtful. 2 6 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wizard021 Posted August 20 Td 13 is toast. May reform. 1 2 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turtlehurricane Posted August 20 I think by tonight during diurnal convective maximum it can become a tropical storm, but this may very well end up being Marco. TD 14 could easily become Laura at 5 PM. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wizard021 Posted August 20 Just like Katrina the wave opened up in the same general spot. Not a tc right now I don't see west winds. 6 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the ghost of leroy Posted August 20 3 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said: this is probably one that will require shutters for those that need them. not the waste of time like like it was for those that did it for Isaias I picked up an extra two tanks of propane this morning. pretty well stocked on necessities and other supplies atm so I'll just be focusing on getting my job sites ready and let the chips fall where they may. Hebert box’ed. Definitely worth prepping and getting some tingles over. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sam Kane Posted August 20 Remember what year it is, this will be a name dropper!! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Calderon Posted August 20 51 minutes ago, ldub23 said: I think the Euro is the model to follow. has 13 as basically nothing(it may be a wave now) and 14 as a weakening tropical storm in texas. . How many times are you going repeat the same general s**t? Seriously. 10 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Doorman Posted August 20 https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php DOUBLE TROUBLE Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sam Kane Posted August 20 Don't cry little one it will be ok! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wizard021 Posted August 20 Ecmwf ensembles have action in the gulf both systems. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted August 20 Why are you guys saying 13 is toast? Recon isn't even in the system yet or are you going by IR? (AF305 is in 14 right now).Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wizard021 Posted August 20 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Why are you guys saying 13 is toast? Recon isn't even in the system yet or are you going by IR? (AF305 is in 14 right now). Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk I can't find westerly inflow . It is in dmin but looking like an open wave. Ecmwf ensembles pick up in the gulf. So will watch . Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
