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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Feel like that might be a beam blockage issue tbh... We've seen that happen a number of times with intense hurricanes INVOF 88Ds.

I doubt it's attenuation.  Looks like a real signal to me.

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IR does look a little warm on the cloud tops in the SW side, but another strong hot tower is quickly wrapping around

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Levi mentioned the shear in his video from about an hour ago. Doesn't seem to think it will be enough cause meaningful weakening before landfall. Will see that NHC has to say on that shortly. IMHO Laura's intensification is probably close to done.

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Laura still has about 12 hours remaining over the warm waters of the 
northwest Gulf of Mexico waters, but increasing southwesterly shear 
around the time of landfall and the possibility of an eyewall 
replacement could result in some fluctuations in intensity this 
evening, but Laura is expected to remain an extremely dangerous 
category 4 hurricane through landfall tonight. 

 

 12H  27/0600Z 29.7N  93.6W  130 KT 150 MPH
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I doubt it's attenuation.  Looks like a real signal to me.

The SW eyewall has never really been filled in at any point on radar yet.


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7 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Starting to see a bit of erosion of the SW eyewall in radar.

RADAR.png

I am not a met but isn't this common since radar can't generally pick up the far side of a storm like this?

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2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I am not a met but isn't this common since radar can't generally pick up the far side of a storm like this?

The center is close enough that attenuation or beam overshoot shouldn't be an issue.

This gap also shows up on multiple radars in the same spot.

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You can see our shearing trough in TX in the yellow color on mid-level WV to the northwest, but it's making very little progress to the east so far. It's such a weak trough that Laura growing larger and expanding it's outflow could affect how much of that could make it over the circulation.

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-W_Gulf_Coast-09-20_46Z-20200826_map_-38-1n-10-100.gif

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NHC has it making landfall around 150 mph. That would make it the strongest hurricane in Louisiana since the Great 1856 storm.

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Just now, jrips27 said:
Laura still has about 12 hours remaining over the warm waters of the 
northwest Gulf of Mexico waters, but increasing southwesterly shear 
around the time of landfall and the possibility of an eyewall 
replacement could result in some fluctuations in intensity this 
evening, but Laura is expected to remain an extremely dangerous 
category 4 hurricane through landfall tonight. 

 

 12H  27/0600Z 29.7N  93.6W  130 KT 150 MPH

I think this just about does it. Maybe some gradual strengthening or plateauing, but little chance this thing gets weakened enough to avoid devastating impacts.

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Quote
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 27.9N  92.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 29.7N  93.6W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 32.5N  93.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  28/0600Z 34.8N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  28/1800Z 36.5N  90.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  29/0600Z 37.3N  85.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/1800Z 38.0N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1800Z 43.2N  64.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/1800Z 51.0N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

Not far from Cat 5.

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

The center is close enough that attenuation or beam overshoot shouldn't be an issue.

Pretty darn far from both sites. Would be nice to get some shots from the hunters flying around.

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

You can see our shearing trough in TX in the yellow color on mid-level WV to the northwest, but it's making very little progress to the east so far. It's such a weak trough that Laura growing larger and expanding it's outflow could affect how much of that could make it over the circulation.

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-W_Gulf_Coast-09-20_46Z-20200826_map_-38-1n-10-100.gif

Check out a wider sector. Just bullying that s/w. 

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Just now, Duncana1993 said:

Not far from Cat 5.

If Laura makes landfall at 150 mph it’s really redundant at that point.  She’s a true buzzsaw,, that storm surge is going to be incredible 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Pretty darn far from both sites. Would be nice to get some shots from the hunters flying around.

I think the fact that it shows up in the same spot from multiple radars, and it's consistent with southeasterly shear that we know is in the vicinity of the storms, suggests that it is a real feature.

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Honestly shocked it wasn't stronger on this advisory. Might be seeing it level off finally with only slow intensification. We shall see. Almost looks like the outflow is pushing that drier air west. NHC mentioned EWRC and shear could lower intensity later. We shall see

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

I think the fact that it shows up in the same spot from multiple radars, and it's consistent with southeasterly shear that we know is in the vicinity of the storms, suggests that it is a real feature.

I see that too. I'd still like to see how this looks as it closes in. 

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I agree with OSUMET. The shearing side of the UL is more towards the Texas coastline than Louisiana. I think we see continued strengthening or sustainability until landfall. The Euro actually shows some more strengthening this evening before the eye starts encroaching on land in the early morning hours (Bottoming out at around 930MB).

Keep these folks in  your thoughts/prayers (whatever your beliefs are) as combining COVID with this chit will create some horrible human suffering down there.

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RE: low DBZ region of eyewall. This isn't a Cat 5 nor does it have a 920s hPa pressure. It's an extremely impressive 940s hPa Category 4 however that could become a Cat 5. Regardless, we do not have to have a 360° azimuth of 50 DBZ echoes to make an intense eyewall. The 75/25 band is doing plenty to ramp up the vortex. Before coming into better range with beam, there's nothing to prove the eye hasn't had a weaker south band since it began rapidly deepening today. At any rate, I fail to see how this radar presentation is a sign of anything other than ongoing intensification.

ee53229ef00d589addc685636337c02b.jpg&key=28597f4558da9bbf85fb34af9dc4f229cd0065fe7ca9a6f42595d630a4194555

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Laura is 175 miles from Galveston Scholes Field, bearing 131° -- [Scholes Lat/Lon: 29.27028/-94.86417].

Latest NHC Update :   4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 27.9°N 92.8°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

Reciprocal bearing of 131° is 311° [Laura to Galveston],

Compass rose NW direction is 315°, the course that Laura is on.

If present motion continues, you can see where Laura is headed in 11 hours ...

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7 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

What time is high tide down there? 

High tide at downtown Lake Charles, Calcasieu River, is 0745am on the 28th. 

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1 minute ago, STxVortex said:

Laura is 175 miles from Galveston Scholes Field, bearing 131°.

Latest NHC Update :   4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 27.9°N 92.8°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

Reciprocal bearing of 131° is 311° [Laura to Galveston],

Compass rose NW direction is 315°, the course that Laura is on.

If present motion continues, you can see where Laura is headed in 11 hours ...

That's not the way forecasting a track of a hurricane works.

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