hlcater Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, psv88 said: That doesnt make any sense East. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jpeters3 Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, jojo762 said: Feel like that might be a beam blockage issue tbh... We've seen that happen a number of times with intense hurricanes INVOF 88Ds. I doubt it's attenuation. Looks like a real signal to me. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JakkelWx Posted August 26, 2020 IR does look a little warm on the cloud tops in the SW side, but another strong hot tower is quickly wrapping around Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dan11295 Posted August 26, 2020 Levi mentioned the shear in his video from about an hour ago. Doesn't seem to think it will be enough cause meaningful weakening before landfall. Will see that NHC has to say on that shortly. IMHO Laura's intensification is probably close to done. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JakkelWx Posted August 26, 2020 5 PM advisory - 145 MPH, 947 mb Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
friedmators Posted August 26, 2020 145/947 @ 5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Duncana1993 Posted August 26, 2020 https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1298724859514458113 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jrips27 Posted August 26, 2020 Laura still has about 12 hours remaining over the warm waters of the northwest Gulf of Mexico waters, but increasing southwesterly shear around the time of landfall and the possibility of an eyewall replacement could result in some fluctuations in intensity this evening, but Laura is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall tonight. 12H 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chicago Storm Posted August 26, 2020 I doubt it's attenuation. Looks like a real signal to me.The SW eyewall has never really been filled in at any point on radar yet.. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KPITSnow Posted August 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Starting to see a bit of erosion of the SW eyewall in radar. I am not a met but isn't this common since radar can't generally pick up the far side of a storm like this? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jpeters3 Posted August 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I am not a met but isn't this common since radar can't generally pick up the far side of a storm like this? The center is close enough that attenuation or beam overshoot shouldn't be an issue. This gap also shows up on multiple radars in the same spot. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2020 You can see our shearing trough in TX in the yellow color on mid-level WV to the northwest, but it's making very little progress to the east so far. It's such a weak trough that Laura growing larger and expanding it's outflow could affect how much of that could make it over the circulation. 5 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Floydbuster Posted August 26, 2020 NHC has it making landfall around 150 mph. That would make it the strongest hurricane in Louisiana since the Great 1856 storm. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
geddyweather Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, jrips27 said: Laura still has about 12 hours remaining over the warm waters of the northwest Gulf of Mexico waters, but increasing southwesterly shear around the time of landfall and the possibility of an eyewall replacement could result in some fluctuations in intensity this evening, but Laura is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall tonight. 12H 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.6W 130 KT 150 MPH I think this just about does it. Maybe some gradual strengthening or plateauing, but little chance this thing gets weakened enough to avoid devastating impacts. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Duncana1993 Posted August 26, 2020 Quote FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 27.9N 92.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 29/0600Z 37.3N 85.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/1800Z 38.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z 43.2N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1800Z 51.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown Not far from Cat 5. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, jpeters3 said: The center is close enough that attenuation or beam overshoot shouldn't be an issue. Pretty darn far from both sites. Would be nice to get some shots from the hunters flying around. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, OSUmetstud said: You can see our shearing trough in TX in the yellow color on mid-level WV to the northwest, but it's making very little progress to the east so far. It's such a weak trough that Laura growing larger and expanding it's outflow could affect how much of that could make it over the circulation. Check out a wider sector. Just bullying that s/w. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Neblizzard Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, Duncana1993 said: Not far from Cat 5. If Laura makes landfall at 150 mph it’s really redundant at that point. She’s a true buzzsaw,, that storm surge is going to be incredible 5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jpeters3 Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Pretty darn far from both sites. Would be nice to get some shots from the hunters flying around. I think the fact that it shows up in the same spot from multiple radars, and it's consistent with southeasterly shear that we know is in the vicinity of the storms, suggests that it is a real feature. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormChaser4Life Posted August 26, 2020 Honestly shocked it wasn't stronger on this advisory. Might be seeing it level off finally with only slow intensification. We shall see. Almost looks like the outflow is pushing that drier air west. NHC mentioned EWRC and shear could lower intensity later. We shall see Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, jpeters3 said: I think the fact that it shows up in the same spot from multiple radars, and it's consistent with southeasterly shear that we know is in the vicinity of the storms, suggests that it is a real feature. I see that too. I'd still like to see how this looks as it closes in. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dan11295 Posted August 26, 2020 Seems like landfall got pushed back a few hours also. Still doesn't have Laura onshore in 12 hours. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HKY_WX Posted August 26, 2020 I agree with OSUMET. The shearing side of the UL is more towards the Texas coastline than Louisiana. I think we see continued strengthening or sustainability until landfall. The Euro actually shows some more strengthening this evening before the eye starts encroaching on land in the early morning hours (Bottoming out at around 930MB). Keep these folks in your thoughts/prayers (whatever your beliefs are) as combining COVID with this chit will create some horrible human suffering down there. 11 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wmsptwx Posted August 26, 2020 Not sure looks to be holding own or still slightly intensifying from all I’ve seen, but maybe Radar is into something. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lilj4425 Posted August 26, 2020 What time is high tide down there? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bcLander Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, lilj4425 said: What time is high tide down there? Low tide is at 10:15p with high at 4:50a. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted August 26, 2020 RE: low DBZ region of eyewall. This isn't a Cat 5 nor does it have a 920s hPa pressure. It's an extremely impressive 940s hPa Category 4 however that could become a Cat 5. Regardless, we do not have to have a 360° azimuth of 50 DBZ echoes to make an intense eyewall. The 75/25 band is doing plenty to ramp up the vortex. Before coming into better range with beam, there's nothing to prove the eye hasn't had a weaker south band since it began rapidly deepening today. At any rate, I fail to see how this radar presentation is a sign of anything other than ongoing intensification. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
STxVortex Posted August 26, 2020 Laura is 175 miles from Galveston Scholes Field, bearing 131° -- [Scholes Lat/Lon: 29.27028/-94.86417]. Latest NHC Update : 4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 Location: 27.9°N 92.8°W Moving: NW at 15 mph Min pressure: 947 mb Max sustained: 145 mph Reciprocal bearing of 131° is 311° [Laura to Galveston], Compass rose NW direction is 315°, the course that Laura is on. If present motion continues, you can see where Laura is headed in 11 hours ... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Calderon Posted August 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: What time is high tide down there? High tide at downtown Lake Charles, Calcasieu River, is 0745am on the 28th. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KPITSnow Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, STxVortex said: Laura is 175 miles from Galveston Scholes Field, bearing 131°. Latest NHC Update : 4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 Location: 27.9°N 92.8°W Moving: NW at 15 mph Min pressure: 947 mb Max sustained: 145 mph Reciprocal bearing of 131° is 311° [Laura to Galveston], Compass rose NW direction is 315°, the course that Laura is on. If present motion continues, you can see where Laura is headed in 11 hours ... That's not the way forecasting a track of a hurricane works. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites