Floydbuster Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, Duncana1993 said: The 5pm and 8pm advisory should be good. We should see it get close to 160 if these trends keep up. Especially if no Eye Wall Replacement Cycle happens. Well no matter what happens with the winds, the surge this thing has likely built up is going to be enormous. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted August 26, 2020 So much for a moat...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 9 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Duncana1993 Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Floydbuster said: Well no matter what happens with the winds, the surge this thing has likely built up is going to be enormous. Yeah for sure 15-20 feet in surge is crazy! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted August 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: We’ve been in storm mode for two days, there’s just no banner pinned Can't have storm mode without proper notice. So, in an unabashed flaunting of my power, presto... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/announcement/14-storm-mode-members-please-read/ In case anyone is unfamiliar and doesn't read it... basically, step up your game and try to avoid crappy or otherwise useless posts as this thread will be moving at an ever faster pace. 8 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BYG Jacob Posted August 26, 2020 Sonde drop is 947mb 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jpeters3 Posted August 26, 2020 Looks like a sonde got 947 mb with 7 kt at the surface. There's your pressure. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JakkelWx Posted August 26, 2020 947 mb sonde edit: double ninja'd Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
buckeyefan1 Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: Can't have storm mode without proper notice. So, in an unabashed flaunting of my power, presto... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/announcement/14-storm-mode-members-please-read/ In case anyone is unfamiliar and doesn't read it... basically, step up your game and try to avoid crappy or otherwise useless posts as this thread will be moving at an ever faster pace. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JakkelWx Posted August 26, 2020 Aaand even stronger winds in the NE eyewall dropsonde 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Will - Rutgers Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: Can't have storm mode without proper notice. So, in an unabashed flaunting of my power, presto... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/announcement/14-storm-mode-members-please-read/ In case anyone is unfamiliar and doesn't read it... basically, step up your game and try to avoid crappy or otherwise useless posts as this thread will be moving at an ever faster pace. do posts on the stormchaser feeds go in here or banter? assumed banter but they do have live ground conditions. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, JakkelWx said: Aaand even stronger winds in the NE eyewall dropsonde Looks like 145-150mph at 5pm (4pm CDT)? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JakkelWx Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, jm1220 said: Looks like 145-150mph at 5pm (4pm CDT)? They will most likely go with 145 mph at the next update. The dropsondes do support 150 MPH winds just above the surface, but they will likely go with a blend of dropsonde data and SFMR Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Duncana1993 Posted August 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks like 145-150mph at 5pm (4pm CDT)? By the 8pm advisory would not be shocked its at or very close to 160mph. If these trends continue. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Morris Posted August 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Aaand even stronger winds in the NE eyewall dropsonde Look closer. The sonde splashed down in the NW eyewall. It had a trip. How's the surface in the NE eyewall? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snowlover11 Posted August 26, 2020 wow 180mph winds aloft in the NE QUAD! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scott747 Posted August 26, 2020 15 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Looks like a couple of chasers are riding it out at the Mcneese State parking garage in Lake Charles. Probably not the safest option for Josh but it at least gives elevation. We've zeroed in on two spots. He has to get his equipment and set up. 5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hlcater Posted August 26, 2020 Mid level shear is starting to become a factor and should increase to ~20kts near landfall. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
olafminesaw Posted August 26, 2020 Over the last hour the current trajectory of the eye would put landfall around Port Arthur. The northward turn has continued on track Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted August 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: do posts on the stormchaser feeds go in here or banter? assumed banter but they do have live ground conditions. In general, this thread is fine for discussion of the live feeds. But for anyone planning on doing continuous play by play of a feed (like what happened with the blue shed), that would be better off in banter. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
schoeppeya Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, hlcater said: Mid level shear is starting to become a factor and should increase to ~20kts near landfall. Evidenced by? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hlcater Posted August 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Evidenced by? cloud tops from convection on the western side of the storm moving east. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jpeters3 Posted August 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Evidenced by? Starting to see a bit of erosion of the SW eyewall in radar. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cheeznado Posted August 26, 2020 947mb is a pretty high pressure for a category 5 , so high 4 for now seems about right for now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
schoeppeya Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, hlcater said: cloud tops from convection on the western side of the storm moving west. That’s the way they are supposed to go when a storm is being ventilated. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hlcater Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, schoeppeya said: That’s the way they are supposed to go when a storm is being ventilated. East**** excuse me. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psv88 Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, hlcater said: cloud tops from convection on the western side of the storm moving west. That doesnt make any sense Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BYG Jacob Posted August 26, 2020 Eye above 20C Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JasonOH Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, jpeters3 said: Starting to see a bit of erosion of the SW eyewall in radar. That looks like beam attenuation to me. 7 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jojo762 Posted August 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Starting to see a bit of erosion of the SW eyewall in radar. Feel like that might be a beam blockage issue tbh... We've seen that happen a number of times with intense hurricanes INVOF 88Ds. edit: ninja'd 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2020 I don't really see evidence of any deterioration at all. 5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
