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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

Seriously what is with these planes losing comms RIGHT when we need it? 

Have they landed at Fort Dix recently?  Maybe they caught the yips from the KDIX radar...

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7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

What's crazy is it probably has at least 6 more hours of strengthening. Could be steady state at some point due to some minor shear, but still. It's approaching the marshiest part of the country and should hold strength well inland. 

That reminded me of a storm that hit the same area and also experienced RI prior to landfall: the 2007 version of Humberto.

Went from a small TS to a strong Cat 1 in under 24 hours and took advantage of the topography to strengthen as it moved on shore.

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5 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

someone more learned should explain the mechanics of an eyewall replacement cycle but that is what i am looking for.

TLDR: It's very complicated.  I wrote a literature review on eyewall replacement cycles and it got extremely complicated very fast.  I'll attach it to this post.

Myers_Final_Paper.pdf

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6 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Josh Morgerman tweeted he may stay in Texas, may not be a safe place in Louisiana to punch the core

I think that was a head fake by Josh.  He's in Louisiana now.

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Just now, andyhb said:

Eye warming to greater than 20˚C on the most recent IR scans. Still intensifying, would expect a substantial drop in pressure on the next recon fix.

Cat 5 is on the table going to pull a Michael right into landfall. 

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22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

As long as the center crosses 28N before reaching 94W I think the forecast landfall point will verify, which looks to be the case.

Mark:  Galveston, Scholes Field, TX. KGLS (NWS/FAA   - HGX)
Elev: 7 ft.;

Lat/Lon: 29.27028/-94.86417

 

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945.4mb extrap with 55kt wind. Going to need to wait until the next data update to get the true extrap and then wait a bit more for the dropsonde to get us a true pressure.

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1 minute ago, JasonOH said:

945.4mb extrap with 55kt wind. Going to need to wait until the next data update to get the true extrap and then wait a bit more for the dropsonde to get us a true pressure.

Could be ~940

 

 

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Laura will give us the best eyewall radar presentations since Michael. Not even within good range yet and these are just incredible.3c13f597a8fd4f920650b65d3d493423.gif

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51 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

It’s a night landfall and his footage will likely be garbage anyways. No reason to be unsafe. 

Yup. He's been to the e for the last few hours. We're on backup backup targets now. Will make a decision soon.

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Hitched up with WVUE FOX 8 Meteorologist Zack Fradella. We are evacuating Lake Charles. You should too. RIGHT NOW!!! I’ll see you back on TV once we make it to WAFB Baton Rouge. This is thing coming in as a CAT 5. KPLC is no longer safe.   
 
 
So KPLC is moving to WAFB in a bit with coverage if I understand correctly.   
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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Laura will give us the best eyewall radar presentations since Michael. Not even within good range yet and these are just incredible.

alright well that's definitely not a moat

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43 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Isn’t Lk Charles not even far enough inland to avoid surge flooding given how low the elevation is there? 

Lake Charles is flatter than 3 day-old soda and is located where the Calcasieu River empties into a series of lakes. The north side of the city is pretty far removed from the coast, but there could be a funneling effect with the river.

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Just now, Ride_it_Out said:

Lake Charles is flatter than 3 day-old soda and is located where the Calcasieu River empties into a series of lakes. The north side of the city is pretty far removed from the coast, but there could be a funneling effect with the river.

Lake Charles will get a lot of water with this. There was a thread on the Weather Channels twitter about what to expect all over town. The highest flood of record there flooded half the city. They are expecting at least 4 more feet of water. They are expecting water as far inland as 30 miles in some parts of SW Louisiana. 

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3 minutes ago, Scott747 said:

Yup. He's been to the e for the last few hours. We're on backup backup targets now. Will make a decision soon.

Looks like a couple of chasers are riding it out at the Mcneese State parking garage in Lake Charles.

Probably not the safest option for Josh but it at least gives elevation.

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7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Laura will give us the best eyewall radar presentations since Michael. Not even within good range yet and these are just incredible.3c13f597a8fd4f920650b65d3d493423.gif

Was it Michael that had birds trapped in the eye close to landfall and showed up on radar? That was super cool/crazy to see. 

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Lake Charles is flatter than 3 day-old soda and is located where the Calcasieu River empties into a series of lakes. The north side of the city is pretty far removed from the coast, but there could be a funneling effect with the river.

so what you’re saying is don’t ride it out.


.
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There is really nothing to add in a meteorological sense at the moment. We are seeing the power of nature at work. Sometimes, it's best to sit back and watch it unfold. It's a marvel what happens when shear relaxes and a giant heat engine can continue unperturbed. 

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The 5pm and 8pm advisory should be good. We should see it get close to 160 if these trends keep up.

Especially if no Eye Wall Replacement Cycle happens. 

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