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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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The eyewall is still long-range in beam height (~25-30k ft) with attenuation but looks quite impressive at the moment. Laura looks like it hasn't stopped intensification.
ea1dda39fade26e3b7129f9547bd1fe3.jpg

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1 minute ago, jrips27 said:

It’s making a run at being a 5...

 

It will make it just a matter of time Ryan Maue was saying the same thing. 

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

The eyewall is still long-range in beam height (~25-30k ft) with attenuation but looks quite impressive at the moment. Laura looks like it hasn't stopped intensification.
ea1dda39fade26e3b7129f9547bd1fe3.jpg

is it possible there is a moat forming there?

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Just now, Will - Rutgers said:

is it possible there is a moat forming there?

This would be better diagnosed with a microwave satellite pass, still too far out from the radar to know for certain.

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What's crazy is it probably has at least 6 more hours of strengthening. Could be steady state at some point due to some minor shear, but still. It's approaching the marshiest part of the country and should hold strength well inland. 

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7 minutes ago, mappy said:

Yass that stadium effect, thanks for sharing 

Unfortunately no fans allowed in the stadium due to Covid. :devilsmiley:

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Just now, Will - Rutgers said:

is it possible there is a moat forming there?

Hard to tell without seeing the southern part of the wall, we'll see if recon finds a double maxima

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Just now, Will - Rutgers said:

is it possible there is a moat forming there?

For us dumb-dumbs that are just here to inform ourselves...what's a moat in respect to a storm?

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2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

is it possible there is a moat forming there?

Kind of.  As of now it appears to still be a spiral band so it’s technically in the first stage of an ERC. I don’t think there is time for it to become concentric based on radar but I need a microwave satellite pass for a better look.

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Let's say this does peak as a Cat 5, whether or not it weakens...Katrina peaked many, many hours before landfall and much further away from the coastline than Laura is now. This is insane.

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Just now, Will - Rutgers said:

is it possible there is a moat forming there?

Eye is still showing feeding from that intense spiral band on the east side. Haven't not seen any secondary wind max either from recon. So no ERC is likely before landfall. Any weakening will likely be from increased shear just before landfall.

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Just now, Floydbuster said:

Let's say this does peak as a Cat 5, whether or not it weakens...Katrina peaked many, many hours before landfall and much further away from the coastline than Laura is now. This is insane.

Yup. I remember feeling this way during Michael too. We are conditioned by history to assume weakening is coming and then it just...doesn’t. 

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25 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

It will be inundated but if you are in a parking garage you will not have your car flooded but you may have to wait a day or two to get out of there.

 

Wouldn't being in a parking deck be very dangerous.. i mean... wouldn't the wind speed be even higher in one?

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Just a little background info on Port Arthur and Lake Charles.

According to the 2019 population estimate, Lake Charles has just under 80,000 residents, while Port Arthur has about 55,000.  Also, since it probably has at least some relevance on the likelihood of a person deciding to evacuate, both cities have 20%+ of their population living below the poverty line.

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3 minutes ago, bcLander said:

For us dumb-dumbs that are just here to inform ourselves...what's a moat in respect to a storm?

someone more learned should explain the mechanics of an eyewall replacement cycle but that is what i am looking for.

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1 minute ago, SouthernStorms said:

Wouldn't being in a parking deck be very dangerous.. i mean... wouldn't the wind speed be even higher in one?

It is. but the structure of a parking garage is stronger than most other building you can find.

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Just now, SouthernStorms said:

Wouldn't being in a parking deck be very dangerous.. i mean... wouldn't the wind speed be even higher in one?

Jim Leonard In Hurricane Hugo was in a parking garage area I think. 140 mph created that eerie and infamous "hallway" video.

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3 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Yup. I remember feeling this way during Michael too. We are conditioned by history to assume weakening is coming and then it just...doesn’t. 

A possible cat 5 landfall in August is insane to me

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Just now, vwgrrc said:

It is. but the structure of a parking garage is stronger than most other building you can find.

Still doesn't seem like the wisest idea even by storm chasing standards

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Both eye and CDO getting more symmetrical in recent frames. Laura looks like a Strong cat 4 on IR now. How close are we to shear starting to increase enough to halt intensification/potentially induce some weakening?

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

We've lost communication from recon just as it heads back in :(

Seriously what is with these planes losing comms RIGHT when we need it? 

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Eye warming to greater than 20˚C on the most recent IR scans. Still intensifying, would expect a substantial drop in pressure on the next recon fix.

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

Seriously what is with these planes losing comms RIGHT when we need it? 

Looks like it's back.

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