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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Never underestimate the power of a little blue plastic shed. 

or a car warsh

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Isn’t Lk Charles not even far enough inland to avoid surge flooding given how low the elevation is there? 

It will be inundated but if you are in a parking garage you will not have your car flooded but you may have to wait a day or two to get out of there.

 

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I thought it should be turning North by now, but it's still heading to HOU?

  • Weenie 3

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RE: Lightning and eastern eyewall.

 

I counted around 65-70 strikes/hour - similar to Dorian last year.

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1 minute ago, vwgrrc said:

I thought it should be turning North by now, but it's still heading to HOU?

Its getting close to Houstons latitude and moving North west....

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7 minutes ago, SouthernStorms said:

amazing how this thing wasn't even a hurricane when it came off of Cuba.

Harvey exactly three years ago wasn't even a 'thing' as it drifted off the Yucatan on a similar, but angled differently, track offset to the west of the GOM. It was almost mid-GOM before it got going, then it went crazy.

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Its just about already to Houstons latitude and moving North west....

Uh, if it were at Houston's latitude, it would have made landfall already...

Edit: I suspect you are seeing Corpus Christi on the map. 

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Just now, BYG Jacob said:

I was gonna edit that into his accent, and then I realized you did it yourself

i remember watching his livestream with his wife frantically calling him over and over and thinking, jesus i hope i am not about to watch a guy die on a f'n webcam.

looks like he's back in the saddle for this one, from Vinton, LA AFAIK

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Just now, STxVortex said:

Harvey exactly three years ago wasn't even a 'thing' as it drifted off the Yucatan on a similar, but angled differently, track offset to the west of the GOM. It was almost mid-GOM before it got going, then it went crazy.

I am so glad that we have a Harvey expert around to make all the comparisons 

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Its getting close to Houstons latitude and moving North west....

Is this really still on NHC's forecast track? I feel it's going a bit off to the W/S now

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Just now, Will - Rutgers said:

i remember watching his livestream with his wife frantically calling him over and over and thinking, jesus i hope i am not about to watch a guy die on a f'n webcam.

looks like he's back in the saddle for this one, from Vinton, LA AFAIK

I remember the blue shed and him freaking about the car wash being ripped to shreds

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1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Houston is safe, this is a Port Arthur to Lake Charles event.

He's not completely insane in the observation that if continued NW motion were to occur, this thing would make landfall smack dab on Galveston.  What should be emphasized is that models show a more northward turn which should take it toward Port Arthur.  But there is nothing in the current trajectory that suggests Houston is "safe."

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4 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't this basically turn into a wind tunnel during a hurricane? 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That’s why it was a bad omen IMO that it took its time organizing when NW of Cuba. May have been better off if it bombed immediately and then leveled off with a lucky ERC or other inhibiting factor now. That’s what so many other storms had-Opal, Lili 2002, Rita, even Katrina. 

Exactly, the first RI is often the most intense part of the TC.  After that, the ERCs expand the wind field, so it is hard to really tighten them up again b/c of the internal stability of a larger vortex (I think that is the reason).  Not saying you can't get re-intensification and RI after the first RI ((look at Hugo in Sep 1989 that last day leading up to landfall), but typically you won't get a pinhole eye which usually has the absolute highest winds.  You'll have a large eye with the overall wind field spread out, not all focused tightly right around the eye.

Laura doesn't have a pinhole eye I think b/c of its latitude.  It's hard to get pinhole eyes outside the deep tropics since Coriolis is higher at say 30N vs. 15N.

 

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5 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Is this really still on NHC's forecast track? I feel it's going a bit off to the W/S now

Should turn more NNW in the coming hours or thats at least what modeling suggests. Id say center eye landfall point should be close to Port Arthur/Texas point Wildlife

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As long as the center crosses 28N before reaching 94W I think the forecast landfall point will verify, which looks to be the case.

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10 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

Image

Yass that stadium effect, thanks for sharing 

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2 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Inside the Hurricane Hunter aircraft:

I knew they did, but I'm continuously surprised that NOAA is still manually dropping dropsondes.  There has been an automated system available for at least a decade.  It has even flown on the unmanned Global Hawk.

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7 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Exactly, the first RI is often the most intense part of the TC.  After that, the ERCs expand the wind field, so it is hard to really tighten them up again b/c of the internal stability of a larger vortex (I think that is the reason).  Not saying you can't get re-intensification and RI after the first RI ((look at Hugo in Sep 1989 that last day leading up to landfall), but typically you won't get a pinhole eye which usually has the absolute highest winds.  You'll have a large eye with the overall wind field spread out, not all focused tightly right around the eye.

Laura doesn't have a pinhole eye I think b/c of its latitude.  It's hard to get pinhole eyes outside the deep tropics since Coriolis is higher at say 30N vs. 15N.

 

I'm don't think this is accurate.  I think the eye size has more to do with the history of the TC (intensity fluctuations, ERCs, land interaction), than the latitude.  Remember, Charlie had a pinhole at a similar latitude.

Edit: TC cores are very close to cyclostrophic balance, so the Coriolis doesn't have much of a practical effect in the eyewall.

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