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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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KPLC TV in Lake Charles will be evacuating and WAFB TV in Baton Rouge will be broadcasting for them.  The met at KPLC told his viewers if they are foolish enough to stay to have a sledgehammer or crowbar so you can get out of your house. 

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Eye has cleared out on the Cirrus NIR view. Looks to be just some high cirrus clouds keeping us from seeing down to the ocean. I guess it beat off that "shear and dry air" pretty well. Where are those crowing about that now?:hurrbear:

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One issue with water and surge is the persistent light but steady onshore wind since Marco. Chasers survived Michael. Even without a #blueshed (Harvey). How does elevation compare in Louisiana?

While I'd love to be in the stadium eye, I don't feel comfortable riding out the required eyewall to do so. I'd do it on a recon flight before ground chasing, but neither is going to happen. A weaker storm without the stadium certainty isn't worth it.

Been looking at forecast soundings well inland for Thursday. Apparently Laura does not believe in skinny tropical CAPE. Soundings show robust CAPE and impressive wind turning with height, esp for a still purely tropical cyclone at the valid time. Imagine extreme wind damage will extend well inland from tornadoes and other violent vorticies within the eyewall and rain bands. Cat 5 Michael was in October. Laura is working with August CAPE.

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This really might push Cat 5 before much longer. Looks like a picture perfect intense hurricane on satellite right now with a round, cleared out eye. And time is really running out for it to weaken much before landfall. Maybe 12 hours away. For Beaumont/Pt Arthur, hopefully these northerly wobbles continue but Lake Charles isn’t a small town either. Looking at Google Maps of these small towns on the Cameron Parish coast, all I can say is.... bye bye. 

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1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Omg you exist. Now we just need Jorge and it’ll be a proper western gulf landfall. 

lol

This one's dicey. Scrapped all the initial spots and finding a good backup is challenging.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This really might push Cat 5 before much longer. Looks like a picture perfect intense hurricane on satellite right now with a round, cleared out eye. And time is really running out for it to weaken much before landfall. Maybe 12 hours away. For Beaumont/Pt Arthur, hopefully these northerly wobbles continue but Lake Charles isn’t a small town either. Looking at Google Maps of these small towns on the Cameron Parish coast, all I can say is.... bye bye. 

My best guess is it splits the goal posts and Beaumont/Pt Arthur get the western Eyewall and Lake Charles get's the eastern Eyewall. Surge will likely be horrible at either.

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I've got a burning question, might be banter, but certainly of interest here.  Is there any video out there of someone that flew a drone into an eye similar to a Reed Timmer tornado chase?  I think it would certainly be calm enough for a DJI to fly, just curious if anyone has tried it.  The footage would be surreal.

And to EDIT - the guys at HurricaneTrack on YT are setting up some amazing camera shots including cameras on Lake Charles for Cantore to use for his coverage tonight.  Perfect views of the surge.

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with so many GOM storms strengthening right up until landfall in recent years i guess i am not surprised to see it happen/happening yet again.  hopefully not to the ridiculous degree Michael achieved.  but there's nothing yet to suggest this thing is slowing down.

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13 hours ago, vortex95 said:

The asymmetries in the CDO suggest still some dry air is getting ingested in the W quad.  You can see small areas of bursting very cold IR cloud tops just W of the center and a partial erosion of the colder cold tops on the W side of the hurricane.  The CDO as a whole is having trouble organizing into a smooth circular pattern with uniform cold cloud tops. Outflow is being persistently restricted in the W quad and doesn't seem to have linked up with the trough over ern TX to provide a large anticyclonic poleward outflow channel that is often key to RI (Harvey and Michael did have strong poleward outflow channels). So even though conditions have improved the last 12 hours, they are not ideal.  The patch of dry air in the wrn GOMEX persists.  The shear, which did relax during the day Tuesday, was initialized at 3 kt at 00z by the SHIPS output.  06z it has 13 kt and it stays close to this value until landfall.  The window of opportunity for RI may be closing.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al132020/stext/20082600AL1320_ships.txt
 

goes16_ir_13L_202008260347.gif

g16wvmid.jpg

 

Well, I am sure eating humble pie!  Laura is doing what Harvey and Michael did.  
But at the time of my above post, doing a nowcast from that was not that
unreasonable.  However, the atmosphere is always throwing curves at us and all
of us will be burned some of time.

This is Laura's first RI, not a system that got strong early in its existence.  
Florence in 2018, as one example, was different.  Multiple ERCs well before landfall,
and had expanded in size with the wind field spread out, and that's one reason why
it didn't intensify near landfall despite going over the Gulf Steam (weakened a
lot in fact).  It's easier to tighten up a TC the first time (no RI prior in its
existence).  Laura had struggled all along and now makes its move at the last min.

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7 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Going to guess we see a peak around 130 knots by 8pm tonight 

Pressure falls have been extremely impressive throughout the afternoon 

1ccae936f98a22b15734dc66afa9fe3c.png

Totally agree. Both the rate and duration of these pressure falls have been exceptional.

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Just now, SouthernStorms said:

amazing how this thing wasn't even a hurricane when it came off of Cuba.

when i saw the path it had to cross to get into the GOM i thought there was a decent chance it would degenerate back into an open low.  and now, woof.

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3 minutes ago, Scott747 said:

lol

This one's dicey. Scrapped all the initial spots and finding a good backup is challenging.

It’s a night landfall and his footage will likely be garbage anyways. No reason to be unsafe. 

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Been noodling around with the HGX and LCH long range refl radar pages, measuring and extrapolating Laura's motion and track [using the browser edges]. Looks like it's still a NW motion to me, at least on a radar image.

With Galveston Scholes Field less than 200 miles NW of the eye, a track bending had better begin soon. [yeah, 'lived' in Galveston and Sea Isle too, and clear down to PI/SPI, from time to time]

Wherever Laura strikes, it's going to be a living hell for a while.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=lch&product=N0Z&loop=yes

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Just now, Windspeed said:

There are a ton of CGs and GLM flashes right now in the eastern eyewall. Lightning like crazy there at the moment.

Cranking out towers

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3 minutes ago, SouthernStorms said:

amazing how this thing wasn't even a hurricane when it came off of Cuba.

Seems like I've been here watching and waiting for weeks...

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7 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Well, I am sure eating humble pie!  Laura is doing what Harvey and Michael did.  
But at the time of my above post, doing a nowcast from that was not that
unreasonable.  However, the atmosphere is always throwing curves at us and all
of us will be burned some of time.

This is Laura's first RI, not a system that got strong early in its existence.  
Florence in 2018, as one example, was different.  Multiple ERCs well before landfall,
and had expanded in size with the wind field spread out, and that's one reason why
it didn't intensify near landfall despite going over the Gulf Steam (weakened a
lot in fact).  It's easier to tighten up a TC the first time (no RI prior in its
existence).  Laura had struggled all along and now makes its move at the last min.

That’s why it was a bad omen IMO that it took its time organizing when NW of Cuba. May have been better off if it bombed immediately and then leveled off with a lucky ERC or other inhibiting factor now. That’s what so many other storms had-Opal, Lili 2002, Rita, even Katrina. 

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Just now, Cheeznado said:

If I were chasing this I would be holed up in a parking garage in Lake Charles

Isn’t Lk Charles not even far enough inland to avoid surge flooding given how low the elevation is there? 

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