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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

I mean yeah a cat 4 would have cat 5 gusts. 

Except for that there is no such thing as a cat 5 gust since the SS scale explicitly only measures sustained winds. 

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Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

Except for that there is no such thing as a cat 5 gust since the SS scale explicitly only measures sustained winds. 

So pedantic. But yeah agreed lol. 

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Rarely does a storm get stronger than the HWRF and HMON.   Probably 940-950mb at landfall.   Solid CAT4 if the eyewall holds, CAT3 if it doesn't.   Not going to be a CAT5.

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Just now, Amped said:

Rarely does a storm get stronger than the HWRF and HMON.   Probably 940-950mb at landfall.   Solid CAT4 if the eyewall holds, CAT3 if it doesn't.   Not going to be a CAT5.

Would bet it gets to 150 at least. So I would not take Cat 5 off the table even Ryan Maue said it could become a  Cat 5.

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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
9 minutes ago, STxVortex said:
No, you only need go back exactly three years ago to Hurricane Harvey. Which was then located in the GOM about 200 miles to the SW of where Laura is now, and was building into an imminent high Cat 4 landfall.
The parallels between the two TCs are increasing by the hour.
nwstae_twitter_harvey.gif&key=4d1e78b8771a717645bd6ee2abbef25bac80169e7572fa34b2f17351d9c58b3a

For some reason geographically speaking in my mind I think of Harvey as a purely Western GOM hurricane but I suppose semantics. That is still the NWGOM so good catch. Still, Laura is heading into a stretch of GOM that has not seen a Cat 4 since early last century.

More than a 'catch', roll that gif back and really zoom in, and you'd see me fighting fierce rainbands zipping up Hwy 188/181 outta Rockport; which Harvey's eye is just touching there in the gif.  :]

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Just now, das said:

Ha, oops.  Will do after this meeting ends.......

I've made that mistake a few times. That calculator is confusing :)

It's probably closer to 60 TJ. I'm waiting for the 18Z winds fields to arrive on the RAMMB site.

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Decent bounce North in the most recent frames. Appears to be turning finally. Lake Charles appears to be ground zero IMO. 

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17 minutes ago, Amped said:

Rarely does a storm get stronger than the HWRF and HMON.   Probably 940-950mb at landfall.   Solid CAT4 if the eyewall holds, CAT3 if it doesn't.   Not going to be a CAT5.

It's not really THAT far off from a Cat 5 and looks to be strengthening still so not sure how you can say that it won't be a Cat 5 with such certainty. It's unlikely but certainly not impossible. It's all semantics anyway, this will be a devastating hit regardless.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The eye is really looking nice. 

Becoming very symmetrical. Wouldn’t be surprised to see any other “stair step” down in pressures. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The eye is really looking nice. 

stadium effect :wub:

 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What was Katrina?

130 TJ for Katrina.

18Z wind fields are in. I blended these with the official 15Z NHC advisory to get 53 TJ as of 18Z for Laura.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

For those wondering, shear is actually on a decreasing trend to the NW of the storm.

wg8sht.GIF

That's old.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

That's old.

You're right, it's still decreasing on the current one.

JN0RQDc.gif

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

You're right, it's still decreasing on the current one.

JN0RQDc.gif

That's still old. Keep trying.

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Seems like model consensus is mostly steady state, possible slight strengthening or slight weakening due to shear just prior to landfall? Haven't checked the latest progs re: shear on approach. Any shear impact is basically moot at this point when it comes to the surge though. 12Z HWRF/Euro/GFS/HMON are putting Holly Beach/Cameron as landfall location. Would result in major impacts to Lake Charles from both surge and wind.

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